View Full Version : MLB: 2009 HR Leader
mongo
02-27-2009, 02:43 PM
all in on bonds!
there are like 50+ guys for this. gonna take a bit to get it up (kinda like oggie).
Dunn moved from a pretty hitters friendly park to a reasonably neutral park (in it's first year, so uncertain).
Holliday moved from a REALLY hitters park to a REALLY pitchers park.
ARod could I guess contend if you buy into the odd-year pattern for him, but meh.
Pujols, thanks to Howard, has never even led the NL let alone MLB in HRs.
I'd say the safe money is on Howard or Fielder.
Titus_Pullo
02-27-2009, 03:37 PM
Ryan Howard got his ass paid mothafucka'.
mongo
02-27-2009, 03:38 PM
the morneau odds are sexy.
Hanover Fist
02-27-2009, 03:54 PM
Doesn't Mike Napoli have some ridiculous HR/AB average, and now he won't be splitting time 50/50 with Mathis behind the dish. He's my darkhorse Angel pick.
Mike Napoli has 18.74 PA/HR and that's over a rather limited sample. Ryan Howard, in contrast, is at 13.80 PA/HR.
And forget my Prince Fielder comment, didn't realize how much his HR numbers dropped off in 08.
I think an interesting dark horse choice would be Carlos Quentin. Was last year an aberration or a true talent level? Uncertain for someone that young, but 36 HR in 589 PA (15.80) is a pretty sexy level of performance.
Penguin Rick
03-02-2009, 12:32 AM
A-Rod does stellar every other year.
TheImpossibleMan
03-16-2009, 12:57 PM
Howard has been getting progressively (and markedly) worse every year, I think he's a bad bet, especially at his odds. Gimme Phat Albert!
BJ Upton.............nice job Mongo. Might as well put some Ichiro and Griffey up there.
BJ Upton.............nice job Mongo. Might as well put some Ichiro and Griffey up there.
BJ Upton hit 25 HRs in 07. Last year during the regular season he had an injury that severely hampered his power, as evidenced by his sudden outburst in the postseason once healthy. I'd say Upton is a safer bet for 25-30ish HR, but anyone who is already in that range is a decent longshot to list for leading the league.
So does that bring him up to about 37 in 2 years?
Powerhouse.
I think Adrian Gonzalez is a far sillier choice. While he's got far more proven power than Upton, no way he leads the league unless he gets traded away from San Diego pretty quickly to a nice hitters park.