There's a stat for hurries in the NFL...

[Archangel]

...so why not a similar one in the NBA?
Personally, good D is what I enjoy most about basketball (insert Nuggets fan joke here), but the problem is that there are rather few official stats to illustrate a player's defensive prowess; steals, blocks, defensive rebounds, that's it. Most of the other things good defenders do are called "intangibles" - but do they have to be? In the NFL, the guys who get the sacks, picks, deflections, tackles etc often get paid superstar money, while in basketball, defensive stalwarts are usually treated as second class citizens come payday - may that have partly to do with the lack of easily quantifiable statistics?

So the question is, should there be more? And which? The obvious problem is seeing which ones are practically feasible - charges taken may come to mind, or turnovers forced in general, if it comes to that. However, if the entire team forced the opponents to run down the shot clock, who would get that stat?

But what I'm thinking about the most (and I know I'm not alone in this) is intimidation under the basket. Because for every blocked shot, there's at least another shot which a capable defender can cause to miss; for one thing, I think it'd be interesting how that stat would relate to a player's blocks. Yao, for example, doesn't block all that many shots, but his presence alone changes a hell of a lot of them, while guys like Josh Smith may get the spectacular rejections flying in from the weak side, but otherwise don't do that much under the basket.

So if NFL defenders can get stats for causing a QB to throw a bad pass even without direct contact, why shouldn't NBA defenders get them for causing guys to miss a layup?

Am I making sense at a quarter to five?

[Dakar]

That's interesting thing about basketball - there's so many facets to a possession its difficult to key in on important ones.

But I'd support adding more stats. Hell, half the stats we use today don't really tell the whole story.

[Archangel]

Hell, I grew up on Euro football, which only has like 5 stats, total.

[taters]

I say YES, but then I get shit on every superbowl when I make the argument that technology has advanced to the point where for the most part we dont need refs...all they do is get in the way, and make close plays/games the product of human error, when they could easily be truly about the teams skill and tactics.

I should start a thread on it, but its getting late.

[Insomniac]

A statistic for players like Shane Battier, you mean.

[BIG PIZZLE]

Almost every shot in the NBA is hurried. It would be impossible to make a valid determination.

[Archangel]

Hmm... I guess that means that the less static a game is, the less stats it has... (US) football and baseball, the most stat-heavy of sports, are mostly based on a succession of single plays, so it might be easier to determine who caused what to happen when, unlike basketball and Euro football, where the game is more fluid, and things happen in the flow of the game...

[Satan]

Too subjective. any shot that isn't wide open would be considered hurried or bothered.

[Archangel]

Almost every shot in the NBA is hurried. It would be impossible to make a valid determination.

That's why I specified, just shots under the basket. I mean, one can pretty much assume that any NBA player would make an uncontested lay-up. But if that player is looking around for Dwight Howard, or trying to manoeuver around Yao, that lay-up may miss its target even without being blocked - and that can be counted.

[Stax]

Yes. Not a big official one like PTS/AST/RBD/STL/BLK that goes to double doubles or whatever, but more tracked data is always better. The QB comparison is the right one, because even if subjective things like Hurry Ups and Knock Downs tell you something about a player's defense that merely their sack total wouldn't. Ditto here.

[BIG PIZZLE]

That's why I specified, just shots under the basket. I mean, one can pretty much assume that any NBA player would make an uncontested lay-up. But if that player is looking around for Dwight Howard, or trying to manoeuver around Yao, that lay-up may miss its target even without being blocked - and that can be counted.

But then that would just benefit forwards and centers. I just think that there's too much discretion and that's not what stats are about.

[Archangel]

But then that would just benefit forwards and centers. I just think that there's too much discretion and that's not what stats are about.

What's the percentage of total blocks made by centres and forwards? 85%, maybe? I don't hear anyone complain about that...

[Stax]

But then that would just benefit forwards and centers. I just think that there's too much discretion and that's not what stats are about.

Subjectivity makes data imperfect, but not useless. Errors, to go to my turf of baseball, are incredibly subjective and what exactly is an error shifts from scorer to scorer. They are an incredibly flawed tool for defensive evaluation (even after you talk about how Fielding %age completely ignores range because a stone statue would have a near perfect Fielding %age). But that doesn't mean you ignore errors. They tell you something, even if imperfectly, about the game that was just played.

[29a]

Poor idea.

Doesn't matter if it's under the basket or not. So Yao gets a forced miss/hurry just for standing in the paint?
That why they teach you to pump fake under the rim after getting an offensive board... because every single time, there's somebody there with a hand up. So almost every time there's an offensive board, somebody on defense gets a stat even if they don't block the shot?

In a sport where making a shot 50% of the time is very good, it seems excessive to credit somebody for a player not making a basket.

[BIG PIZZLE]

What's the percentage of total blocks made by centres and forwards? 85%, maybe? I don't hear anyone complain about that...

Yeah but you can block any shot on the court.

[Archangel]

I mean, who's the best blocking guard in the league? I'm guessing Wade; he's got, what, 1 bpg for his career? And those guards who follow their guy all the way to the basket to alter or block their shots would be counted under my idea...

[Satan]

I'd be more interested in seeing what % of shots are completely uncontested.

[Archangel]

I'd be more interested in seeing what % of shots are completely uncontested.

That'd be a pretty good stat to determine a team's defence, actually. Pretty easy to count, too.

[29a]

I'd be more interested in seeing what % of shots are completely uncontested.

Good idea for a team stat.

[Archangel]

Doesn't matter if it's under the basket or not. So Yao gets a forced miss/hurry just for standing in the paint?
As silly as you make it sound, why not? Stats are a way of telling you something about the effect a player has on certain aspects of the game. If Yao's mere presence alters people's shots to the point of them missing, that is relevant to a game, and to his "worth" on defence. It's not perfect, and it doesn't tell you everything, but it tells you something; and anyway, which stat is perfect?

That why they teach you to pump fake under the rim after getting an offensive board... because every single time, there's somebody there with a hand up. So almost every time there's an offensive board, somebody on defense gets a stat even if they don't block the shot?
Blocks are counted even if the swatted ball gets back into the other team's hands (whether they score off it or not), which is essentially the same as your offensive rebound scenario.

[29a]

Blocks are counted even if the swatted ball gets back into the other team's hands (whether they score off it or not), which is essentially the same as your offensive rebound scenario.

What if the person with the offensive board pumped up once, decided not to shoot and kicked it out to the corner. Does somebody get their hurried stat padded. The person closest to the player? If it was two players, half a hurry each like a sack?

[Archangel]

What if the person with the offensive board pumped up once, decided not to shoot and kicked it out to the corner. Does somebody get their hurried stat padded. The person closest to the player? If it was two players, half a hurry each like a sack?

If it's not a shot, it's not a hurry. Same as taking away a pump fake is a steal and not a block.

[29a]

So the qualifiers are that a shot has to be made in the paint with the ball not being touched, deflected or blocked, the shot has to miss, and there has to be a defender in the area?

[Archangel]

Yeah...



*waits for the other shoe to drop*

[Menace2Sobriety]

A statistic for players like Shane Battier, you mean.
Are you referencing Michael Lewis/Daryl Morey's approach, or are you unaware of the article?

[Insomniac]

Yeah. Actually, I forgot Battier was playing for the Rockets until I came across that article, which shows you how much I keep up with it.

[Menace2Sobriety]

Arch:

http://www.nytimes.com/2009/02/15/magazine/15Battier-t.html?_r=1

[Archetype]

I say YES, but then I get shit on every superbowl when I make the argument that technology has advanced to the point where for the most part we dont need refs...all they do is get in the way, and make close plays/games the product of human error, when they could easily be truly about the teams skill and tactics.

I should start a thread on it, but its getting late.
You want to bring Skynet into sports??

[Swurgen]

But then that would just benefit forwards and centers. I just think that there's too much discretion and that's not what stats are about.

Good point. Then you'd have to have contested possessions where guards throw errant passes or poor shots because they are being hounded by an active on the ball defender as opposed to some lazy cherry picker who is just laying back playing token D and letting him pick them apart.

[Swurgen]

That'd be a pretty good stat to determine a team's defence, actually. Pretty easy to count, too.

You could play outstanding team defense for 20 of the 24 sec and press them all the way up the court and one quick pump fake and you have an uncontested shot. It's tough in basketball - too fluid.

[UNC]

There is stat for sacks in the NFL too...let's do it in the NBA!!

[Archetype]

There is stat for sacks in the NFL too...let's do it in the NBA!!
Might start actually watching Basketball if there were.

[UNC]

Instead of receptions, NBA could keep track of conceptions

[Menace2Sobriety]

I think they already do - Shawn Kemp is the all-time leader.

The good thing is I got a chance to pimp Michael Lewis in this thread. He's pretty much the best writer in the English language.

[heelsguy]

no.

in football, you have 1 guy with the ball--the QB--who has people assigned to protect him, the O-line and even the RB's. That is their job. So if the defense can overcome those obstacles and get to him and cause him to hurry his throw it is a big acomplishment. At minimum it means their DB's provided tight coverage.

In basketball, every man is a free agent. the defense should already be up in the shooter's face. As someone said, if anything, let there be another negative state so that if the defense is slack that will come back to haunt the losing team in the box score .

Coaches are always preaching "make that one extra pass" to get an open shot anyway.

[Da Raider]

A statistic for players like Shane Battier, you mean.

Totally. I love it when the stat geeks within the Houston Rockets organziation convince themselves that Shane Battier can shut down Kobe Bryant based on certain stats that may or may not be accurate in the long term, and it gets leaked a couple days before the Lakers come to town and then Kobe drops 38 on them.

Invoking massive amounts of statistical analysis on what is a very free-flowing and instinctual game seems to be a bit over kill for me. I know that is the direction the game but consider me resistant to that change.

[Menace2Sobriety]

Kobe scored 33 in the last game too and hit the winner. Your point?

[Stax]

Hope for Arch (http://sports.espn.go.com/espnmag/story?id=4011524):

After watching Anderson Varejao throttle the Clips with his low-post D recently, I e-mailed Daryl, wondering why there wasn't a stat called stops, for when a defender prevents his opponent from scoring on an isolation play, or a low-post or perimeter play. Come up with an unforced turnover in the process, and it's a "superstop." Daryl's response: "Why do you think we have Chuck Hayes?"

In other words, "We are years ahead of you on this one, Simmons."

See? That's the stuff I want to know!

[Archangel]

So basically, GMs and coaches have fuck-tonnes of defensive stats to work with, while all we get are blocks and steals? Gay.

[Stax]

In baseball it's the same thing. Lots of teams have proprietary measures that they don't want to release, because it's far less of an "edge" if it's a # everyone has.

[Archangel]

Are you saying that there are even MORE stats in baseball?

[Stax]

lolololol