NBA: Draft: Winners and Losers [Archive]

johnnychacski

06-26-2009, 02:48 PM

For all the activity leading up to the draft on Thursday, there was a weird lack of it in the event itself -- just four first-round picks changed hands, none of which were in the lottery, and there was just one minor trade involving current players.

Nonetheless, there was plenty of intrigue, several head-scratching moments, and a few dramatic slides by highly ranked players. And I'm here to sum it all up with my best and worst of the draft. So let's get right to it:

Worst foresight: Minnesota
Just an idea to throw out: You might want to see if a guy is interested in playing for you before you cash in all your chips to get his rights. That's particularly true if said player has enough leverage to spend the next two years making good money playing someplace else.

'Sota was geeked to get two top-six picks but used one of them on Ricky Rubio (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19272), who was clearly crestfallen by the idea of going 26-56 in the frozen tundra for the next half-decade. Even more baffling was that they took another point guard with the next pick, Syracuse's Jonny Flynn (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19160).

Nobody is quite sure what the Wolves' intentions are -- though they insist they're keeping Rubio, teams like the Knicks and Rockets are circling like sharks hoping to relieve Minnesota of a player who seems highly unlikely to suit up for them for at least the next two years. Rubio has a $6 million buyout in Spain and would essentially be playing in the NBA for free. He was willing to do it in New York, and even in Sacramento, but apparently he draws the line at Minnesota.

Best theft: DeJuan Blair (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19230) to San Antonio
I don't understand how a player projected to be a top-15 talent can slide all the way to 37th based on reports about his knees. Here's why: At some point, the injury risk is a "so what." As in, "so what if he can only play for three years, he's so much better than the average 25th pick in the draft that he'd still be worth it."

This a player who absolutely destroyed the second pick in the draft when they went head-to-head. His rebounding numbers are something out of a video game -- I'm not sure NBA personnel people have put together quite how dominant Blair was on the glass in college, but he had a better rebound rate than Blake Griffin (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19213). His offensive rebound rate of 20.5 was double that of most other big man prospects -- the next closest prospect was Santa Clara's John Bryant at 14.4.

But Blair has bad knees, and someday they might catch up to him. In the meantime, the Spurs got a lottery talent for a second-round salary while the rest of the league was drafting Sam Youngs and Taj Gibsons.

Worst draft night: Knicks
New York spent $5 million in trades to select Toney Douglas (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19358) with the 29th pick and to acquire center Darko Milicic. Douglas is a 6-foot-2 shooting guard who projects poorly to the NBA, while Milicic is an epic draft bust who isn't going to be suddenly cured by a "system."

I'm not thrilled with what they did at No. 8, either, getting Arizona big man Jordan Hill (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19174). Perhaps all the dysfunction in Tucson kept Hill from performing better, but I suspect the Spurs got a better player at No. 37 than the Knicks did at No. 8. New York needs a point guard, too, but passed on Brandon Jennings (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19261) and Ty Lawson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19034) in order to take Hill.

Best fit: Danny Green (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19232), Cavs
Were it not for San Antonio's theft of Blair, Cleveland taking Green at No. 46 would be the steal of the draft. He's a knockdown outside shooter who hit 42 percent on 3s and 85 percent at the line last season, and he's a solid defender at the wing with good size. My Draft Rater (http://insider.espn.go.com/nba/draft2009/insider/columns/story?columnist=hollinger_john&page=DraftRater-090618) had him as the No. 8 college player in the draft, and he should be able to contribute right away.

Moreover, this is exactly what the Cavs need. In addition to their inability to contend with Dwight Howard, their biggest issue in the playoffs against Orlando was a lack of wing talent -- in particular, wing talent that can knock down all the open looks LeBron James creates. Green helps answer that need.

Worst franchise trend: Sonics/Thunder and project centers
B.J. Mullens, I'd like you to meet Robert Swift, Mouhamed Sene and Johan Petro. You're the fourth project center taken by this franchise in five years, and let's hope your career turns out differently.

Of course, this is a different administration in OKC, and Sam Presti certainly has more of a clue than the folks who were making picks back in Seattle. However, the hit rate on project centers is miniscule, especially this late in the draft. Of course, the hit rate on anybody this late in a weak draft isn't great, so perhaps there wasn't much to lose, but one can't help but wonder how Green or Blair would have looked in a Thunder uni.

Best trade we can't talk about yet: Amare to Golden State
The "doneness" of this deal varies greatly depending on whom you read, but the most intriguing potential deal of the night had Amare Stoudemire going to the Warriors for Andris Biedrins, Brandan Wright, Marco Belinelli and the rights to No. 7 overall pick Stephen Curry (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19087).

The deal can't be completed until July 8 because of Biedrins' base-year compensation status and there likely would have to be some heavy scrutiny of Stoudemire's medical records on the Golden State side, but it would give us our sixth blockbuster trade of draft week.

Worst upside: Hornets taking Darren Collison (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19079) at No. 21
Let's say Collison is better than the Hornets ever imagined, and that he's able to contribute immediately and play at a high level. You know how much he's going to play? Eight minutes a game. The Hornets used a first-round pick on a backup point guard who is guaranteed to hardly play, even though they had a glaring need in the frontcourt and (beating dead horse now) Blair was just sitting out there waiting for them.

You can get a backup point guard to play eight minutes and not kill you for the veteran's minimum -- just make a call to somebody like C.J. Watson or Chucky Atkins on July 1 and you're done. But the draft is a team's one chance to get cheap frontcourt talent, and nobody is more desperate for cheap frontcourt talent than the luxury-tax threatened, bench-depleted Hornets. Instead, they punted a great opportunity.

Best use of a future pick: Ty Lawson, Nuggets
Denver had been dangling the future pick it had from the Bobcats for the past year hoping to net a frontcourt talent -- David Lee and Jeff Foster were among those in its sights at the trade deadline. That didn't work out, so instead the Nuggets used it to grab Lawson when he unexpectedly fell to No. 18, giving the team a true backup point guard and providing a clear line of succession for Chauncey Billups.

Lawson rated as the top player on my Draft Rater after a stellar season in which he led North Carolina to the national title; meanwhile, the Nuggets got some money to help pay him (and Chris Andersen) by selling the 34th pick for $2.25 million.

Worst use of a future pick: Marcus Thornton (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19351), Hornets
As you can probably tell, I wasn't a big fan of the Hornets' draft moves. After taking Collison at No. 21, they traded two future second-rounders to Miami -- in 2010 and 2012 -- for the rights to take Thornton 43rd.

The "I'll give you two later for one now" ploy is rarely sensible, and it certainly isn't for a player who didn't grade out highly either statistically or athletically. And besides, the Hornets already have too many wing players. Color me puzzled.

Best subplot: Pritchard vs. Morey in the battle of second-rounders
It isn't draft day unless Rockets GM Daryl Morey and Blazers GM Kevin Pritchard take part in multiple deals involving second-round picks, and they lived up to their history again this year. In a quiet night by his standards, Pritchard traded up seven spots to get one pick, and traded two future second-rounders in a deal to move up two spots in the first round. He also quietly shed nearly $2 million in salary and cap holds for free agency this summer, mostly by dealing Sergio Rodriguez to Sacramento.

Morey responded by spending roughly $6 million -- a midlevel exception's worth of Les Alexander's dough -- to acquire three second-round picks in Jermaine Taylor (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19353), Chase Budinger (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19026) and Sergio Llull (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19364). "We targeted JT, Chase and Sergio as worth significant resources to obtain," Morey tweeted afterward. Llull will likely stay overseas for another year or two while Budinger and Taylor should be on the roster.

Best of the rest:
• Loved Dallas' draft, getting Rodrigue Beaubois (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19186) and Nick Calathes (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19153).
• Detroit also did well getting Austin Daye (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19214), a star talent at No. 15, and DaJuan Summers (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19172) and Jonas Jerebko (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19303) early in the second round.
• Hated Chicago's draft, getting another stringbean 4 in Taj Gibson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19121) and an undersized one in James Johnson (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19309).
• Didn't mind OKC taking James Harden (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19221) over Rubio, because it's hard to ignore the Thunder's glaring need for shooting and wings.
• I love Tyreke Evans (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19259) as a player but am incredibly dubious about his ability to play the point and suspect he'll be a full-time shooting guard within two years.
• Picks 8 through 14 in this draft will combine to play in zero All-Star games.
• My highest-rated undrafted players were UAB's Paul Delaney (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19438) and Turkish big man Oguz Savas (http://insider.espn.go.com/nbadraft/draft/tracker/player?draftyear=2009&playerId=19440).