MLB: Keith Law - Three Best Pitchers Not in the Majors [Archive]

ilostmyhead

07-19-2009, 09:28 AM

The defection of Cuban left-hander Aroldis Chapman has returned his name to the spotlight just four months after he blew scouts away in the second World Baseball Classic. But the tournament also featured top Japanese pitcher Yu Darvish. In fact, over the course of five days in March, an enterprising fan could have seen Chapman, Darvish and eventual No. 1 overall pick Stephen Strasburg all pitching in San Diego. Strasburg is now under control to the Nationals and Chapman should be a free agent within the next six months, leaving Darvish as the only one of the troika without an ETA on these shores.
These three players represent the best pitching talent in the world that is not yet in the major leagues, and are all well ahead of any minor league pitching prospect. While all three have great potential, any ranking of them has to take into account both short- and long-term considerations, with different results for each list.

Aroldis Chapman

Age: 21 Current status: Recently defected from Cuba Repertoire: Fastball, slider, curve, cutter and changeup Olney (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=4301746&name=olney_buster) | Arangure Jr. (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlb/insider/news/story?id=4332309)

Chapman, reportedly 21 (http://www.baseballamerica.com/blog/draft/?p=1303), has a huge fastball and has been clocked as high as 100 mph in international competition. But he will sit more consistently in the mid-90s in his best starts and in the low 90s in some of his lesser outings. The quality of his secondary stuff is a bigger question; he has thrown a slider that's sharp and approaches 90 mph, but pitches primarily off his fastball. He has the arm speed required to throw a plus slider, and has also shown a curve, a cutter and a changeup in past outings. There has been some question over whether his fastball-heavy approach is by choice or whether Cuban baseball officials were trying to limit his appeal to MLB clubs by preventing him from showing off his full repertoire; it is, of course, impossible to confirm that theory. Either way, the fastball/slider combination alone marks him as a potential front-line reliever. With his size and ability to hold his velocity deep into games, he offers the ceiling of a No. 1 starter.

Yu Darvish

Age: 22 Current status: Playing in Japan Repertoire: Two- and four-seam fastball, slider, curve, slurve, splitter and shuuto Scouting (http://insider.espn.go.com/espn/blog/index?entryID=3977212&name=law_keith) | Video (http://sports.espn.go.com/videohub/video/video?id=3990349)

Darvish, 22, has the deepest repertoire, throwing seven different pitches if you count the two- and four-seam fastballs separately. He'll work in the low 90s with the four-seamer, but the 87-91 mph two-seamer might be the better pitch because of its sharp downward tailing action. He also throws a hard slider from 84 to 87 mph with a sharp, long break and good tilt, as well as a curve, a "slurve" that's in between the two breaking balls, a so-so splitter and a shuuto (http://www.baseball-reference.com/bullpen/Shuuto). He works largely with the fastballs and the slider, and if he can sharpen the splitter or settle into a split-change, that would be more than enough for him to go through an MLB lineup three times. Darvish, who is half-Iranian, is unusually tall for a Japanese pitcher at 6-foot-5, and has a tremendous track record of success in the NPB, the top professional baseball league in the world after MLB.

Stephen Strasburg

Age: 20 Current status: Negotiating contract with Nationals Repertoire: Fastball, curveball and changeup Scouting (http://insider.espn.go.com/mlbdraft/player?id=18793&draftyear=2009) | Video (http://insider.espn.go.com/video/clip?id=4018091&categoryid=3975306)

Strasburg, 20, is the best-known to MLB scouts, because he was seen in high school and then burst on the scene the summer after his freshman year at San Diego State by hitting 97 and going nine-up/nine-down through a strong Team USA lineup. Strasburg primarily works with two pitches: a 94-98 mph fastball that has touched triple digits many times and a hard curve in the low to mid-80s that, given its velocity, acts as much like a slider as it does like a curve. He also throws a true slider and a solid changeup that he didn't need at the college level this year, where he posted what was likely the highest strikeout rate of any starter in Division I history.
If all three pitchers were signed and placed in major league rotations today, my money would be on Darvish to provide the most value this year. He has the strongest experience, having faced the highest caliber of opposing batters of any of these three pitchers, and he has a deep repertoire with some funk in his delivery that should make it hard for hitters to adjust to him.
For the long term, however, I'd bet on Strasburg. Darvish's arm works fine now, but he has some minor delivery issues (like the way he hooks his wrist in the back) and has been worked very hard in Japan. Chapman's stuff is erratic and his workload is an unknown, making him riskier than the other two pitchers in this discussion.
Strasburg's velocity is fairly easy -- if you can call throwing 100 mph "easy" -- and he's been managed carefully, working every seventh day in school and never running up excessive pitch counts under Aztecs coach (and new pitcher's best friend) Tony Gwynn. He's not the slam dunk that Darvish is, and he may have some development left to do once he enters pro ball, although it is likely that Strasburg's development will have to come at the big league level because minor league hitters will be unable to hit his stuff.
Even considering those caveats, Strasburg presents more potential to be not just a No. 1 starter, but an upper-tier No. 1 starter who gives his team 200-plus innings a year of dominant performance.