View Full Version : AL MVP?
TIM's thread from GMF 1.0. BP covered the subject today:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=7960
That wasn’t fun. A family vacation in the Dominican Republic last week—not my choice to leave the country in August, believe me—was extended when a rather grumpy lady named Fay passed through on Friday, shutting down Punta Cana airport. There’s a long story here, but suffice to say that American Airlines gets the gas face for its treatment of hundreds of customers stranded, most of them in a foreign country, by the storm.
I am home now, and eager to get caught up after spending most of the last 16 days on the road. There’s nothing like spending time in a place in which the power regularly goes out to make you appreciate reliable internet access, a satellite package, and the “on” button.
On Sunday afternoon in Oakland, Carlos Quentin roped his MLB-leading 34th home run to help the White Sox to a 13-1 win over the A’s. Because he leads the league in homers, is high on the RBI list, plays for a division leader, and has something of a narrative attached to his name, Quentin is a popular choice for the AL MVP award. In a season in which no AL player has stood above all the rest, but many are having good seasons, Quentin’s case seems as valid as anyone’s. You could say much the same, only better, about Josh Hamilton, who despite a sluggish second half has the kind of stats and story the BBWAA loves.
Let’s run at this from a different angle, though, one that focuses more on performance than anything else. Here are the reasonable candidates for the award, and their stat lines through Sunday:
http://i33.tinypic.com/2nrgh9l.jpg
That seems like an exhaustive list, but it doesn’t even include Evan Longoria, who is third in WARP among position players, or Mariano Rivera, third in WARP among everyone, or Justin Morneau, who won the award under similar circumstances two years ago. It’s that kind of year in the AL—lots of the best players are having seasons of similar value, and how valuable they are depends in some part on which system you’re using.
A few things become clear when you run the numbers. First, Ian Kinsler has been the best position player in the American League, thanks in part to a 26-for-28 performance stealing bases. His defense isn’t good—a Rate of 95 in Clay’s system, and worse than that in others—but he’s made up for that with his bat and his legs.
You can also see that Alex Rodriguez isn’t getting enough play in this discussion. Despite a stint on the DL, he is second in VORP and sixth in WARP, and he could well end up leading the league in both categories. If he does, there wouldn’t be much of a case against him as the MVP, at least among position players, although because he’s so far out of the discussion now, and his season isn’t publicly perceived as a great one, he has very little chance of winning. Like Albert Pujols in the NL, Rodriguez’s greatness is taken for granted, leaving the best player in the league reduced to seventh-place finishes in the MVP voting.
What also becomes apparent is that while the AL MVP might well be a pitcher, that pitcher had better not be Francisco Rodriguez. Rodriguez isn’t even the best closer in the league, and as you can tell by the numbers above, he doesn’t even rate as compared to the top starters in the circuit. He’s going to break the saves record, which is more about opportunity—his percentage isn’t anything special, but he has 10 more save opportunities than any other closer—than anything else. You could take any number of pitchers, put them in the role Rodriguez has had, and the Angels’ performance would be exactly the same, and in some cases, better. Rodriguez would be one of the worst MVP choices ever.
If you want to give the award to a pitcher, give it to the best one. Cliff Lee has outpitched the field by a win, he leads AL players in WARP and VORP, and he even comes with a great story. If performance is the metric, Cliff Lee has been the most valuable player in the American League. His lead over the pack—Kinsler, Rodriguez, and Halladay, in that order—is small enough that the next six weeks could change everything, but right now, Lee is the AL MVP.
Of course, starting pitchers on bad teams don’t win the MVP award, so we’re likely to see another season in which the award and the most valuable player are two different animals. The media-attention candidates—Quentin, Hamilton, and Francisco Rodriguez, by and large—don’t compare to the top players in the league, and even guys such as Justin Morneau and Kevin Youkilis are getting more play than Lee and Alex Rodriguez. It’s not entirely clear to me why the AL MVP award is more about narrative than numbers, but we’re nearly a decade into this being the case, and it’s not going to change anytime soon.
Sorry, Cliff Lee—you needed Travis Hafner and Victor Martinez to play better than they did.
Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Joe by clicking here or click here to see Joe's other articles.
twisterf5
08-18-2008, 07:24 PM
got to be carlos, unexpected huge production but the white sox are going to win the AL central and he going to be the reason why
twisterf5
08-18-2008, 07:25 PM
but how good is A-Rod, hes top 10 in MVP voting every year and if the yanks would make the playoffs hes a legit contender
but how good is A-Rod, hes top 10 in MVP voting every year and if the yanks would make the playoffs hes a legit contender
That is a stupid MVP 'criteria' that appears nowhere in the actual award. Providing your team with X production is providing your team with X production whether you play with 8 Babe Ruths or 8 David Ecksteins.
Genius
08-18-2008, 07:56 PM
I also like Quentin, even with a great year from Dye, that team should have been dead in the water with the seasons Thome, Konerko, and Swisher are turning in. Quentin has helped them thrive in a division that was supposed to be owned by Detroit and Cleveland. Plus, his numbers are slightly better than Dye's across the board. I'll say Kinsler for second.
Sex Cannon
08-18-2008, 09:59 PM
The pitching was reallllllllly good while Konerko Thome and Swisher were horrible and Quentin and Dye were basically the entire offense.
I'm obviously biased but I really think if Quentin keeps these shenanigans up (35 tonight) he's got a real chance to win MVP.
Draven X 23
08-18-2008, 10:03 PM
So Hamilton is not list worthy now?
I'm putting down Ian Kinsler because he's getting better all the time, his hitting is great and he's a solid defender. If Texas was better, it'd be a sure thing.
nuclearjew
08-18-2008, 10:05 PM
I'm putting down Ian Kinsler because he's getting better all the time, his hitting is great and he's a solid defender. If Texas was better, it'd be a sure thing.
He's done for the year, though!
So Hamilton is not list worthy now?
I have no idea what happened actually, coulda sworn I put him on the list. Whatever, he's the third best player on his team and since they're losers (which apparently matters for individual awards??) none of them are going to actually win anything.
nuclearjew
08-18-2008, 10:05 PM
So Hamilton is not list worthy now?
He doesn't have enough WARP VORPs.
He's done for the year, though!
Is that for sure now? I only saw that it was a possibility.
nuclearjew
08-18-2008, 10:07 PM
Is that for sure now? I only saw that it was a possibility.
Kinsler placed on DL, could face surgery
Rangers placed infielder Ian Kinsler on the 15-day disabled list.
After undergoing an MRI, Kinsler was diagnosed with a sports hernia, and could be facing season-ending surgery. He'll meet with a specialist on Tuesday. "I hope I can avoid surgery, but the way it is right now, it's pretty bad, pretty sore, and I can't play," Kinsler said. Aug. 18 - 9:20 pm et
It's a possibility, but I'm gonna say he's done. Sports hernias are serious business.
Is that for sure now? I only saw that it was a possibility.
I saw the same thing. If it's true, I rescind my vote since he doesn't really have a chance missing the last month of the season.
EDIT: With that quote, it doesn't look good. Especially for a team going nowhere this year. No need to risk him for seasons coming.
goldsoundz
08-18-2008, 10:27 PM
in my mind quentin is the obvious frontrunner right now. i'd vote justin morneau second cause seriously he's the only huge threat in that offense aside from mauer
Pollo
08-18-2008, 10:30 PM
in my mind quentin is the obvious frontrunner right now. i'd vote justin morneau second cause seriously he's the only huge threat in that offense aside from mauer
plus after trading away Santana, you figure they would really struggle with a relatively young rotation which also didn't have Liriano for half a season at the level we know he could pitch in addition to parting with Garza.
You can make a position based arguement for Mauer, but Morneau??
plus after trading away Santana, you figure they would really struggle with a relatively young rotation which also didn't have Liriano for half a season at the level we know he could pitch in addition to parting with Garza.
How does a FIRST BASEMAN get MVP votes based on his pitching staff performing surprisingly well?
Swurgen
08-18-2008, 10:32 PM
That is a stupid MVP 'criteria' that appears nowhere in the actual award. Providing your team with X production is providing your team with X production whether you play with 8 Babe Ruths or 8 David Ecksteins.
If anything producing #'s on a shit team is tougher because there is no reason to pitch to you, nobody to drive in, nobody to drive you in, or as a pitcher you have zero margin for error with no run support.
If anything producing #'s on a shit team is tougher because there is no reason to pitch to you, nobody to drive in, nobody to drive you in, or as a pitcher you have zero margin for error with no run support.
Precisely right. Lineup protection isn't HUGE, but it is true that putting up dominant numbers in a weak lineup can actually be harder. That's not the case with Texas (with a league-leading offense but no pitching being their problem), but your point is correct.
goldsoundz
08-18-2008, 10:37 PM
yeah but no one wants an mvp from a shitty team, so there's that too
yeah but no one wants an mvp from a shitty team, so there's that too
Well fuck them. The MVP isn't about what fans want, there's the All-Star Game and the Pepsi Clutch Player of the Intangible Playing the Game the Right Way Award Brought to you by Frito-Lays and shit for that. The MVP is about the most valuable player. Most and player are self explanatory, and valuable is an individual quality regardless of team performance. If, for example, you have 10 WARP you add 10 wins to your team whether your team wins 100 games or 10.
I don't like the idea of a pitcher winning a Cy Young and an MVP award. In a traditionalist sense, I think the MVP should be reserved for position players who help you win 100% of the time, compared to a pitcher who helps you win 20% of the time.
That said, as unpopular as it might be, I'd give the nod to Hamilton. He's a pretty good fielder and his offensive numbers speak for themselves.
That said, as unpopular as it might be, I'd give the nod to Hamilton. He's a pretty good fielder and his offensive numbers speak for themselves.
Bradley is a far better hitter in every meaningful category and Kinsler provides great offense at a far less offensive positions. Both the raw #s and the CF-is-a-tough-position arguments are destroyed by his own teammates.
Swurgen
08-18-2008, 11:24 PM
But Bradley is a degenerate scumbag cunt and I hope he gets drilled in the face with a fastball and Kinsler is going to miss the month+ of the season. Thus then clearing the way for JH and eliminating that dreaded "teammates dividing the vote" element.
Bradley is a far better hitter in every meaningful category and Kinsler provides great offense at a far less offensive positions. Both the raw #s and the CF-is-a-tough-position arguments are destroyed by his own teammates.
But JH actually plays a position, whereas Bradley does not, and Kinsler can't really be considered if he's done for the season.
Hamilton is third in the AL in total bases, first in RBIs, third in HRs, and has a .300 average. I just think that as far as position players go, Hamilton deserves it if Kinsler can't finish it out.
I don't like the idea of JH winning because his teammate was injured, but who else really deserves it?
Genius
08-19-2008, 12:50 AM
Carlos Quentin. The guy is basically hitting a home run every night at this point.
TheImpossibleMan
08-19-2008, 01:13 AM
But JH actually plays a position, whereas Bradley does not, and Kinsler can't really be considered if he's done for the season.
Hamilton is third in the AL in total bases, first in RBIs, third in HRs, and has a .300 average. I just think that as far as position players go, Hamilton deserves it if Kinsler can't finish it out.
I don't like the idea of JH winning because his teammate was injured, but who else really deserves it?
Hamilton also doesn't sniff the top 10 in AL OBP and is only seventh in slugging. As for his defense, Baseball Prospectus has him at -12 FRAA: 12 runs worse than the average defender at the same position. He isn't the leader in VORP at his position (Sizemore is ahead of him by quite a bit, though to be fair he is #2). As for Kinsler and Bradley, while I agree they won't win it and will get almost zero consideration, it doesn't help Hamilton's case when two other players on his own team are more productive offensively, both in the sense that it makes his numbers look worse and in the sense that it makes you wonder, just how valuable is Hamilton anyways? His team isn't a contender and he's the third best hitter in the Texas lineup, and yet his is the most valuable player in the league?
As for who should be MVP, I think it's a race between A-Rod and Q-Dog, as Rodriguez has the best stats but is on a non-contender, has missed some time, and is generally hated by the media. Quentin has great-but-not-the-very-best stats but is the linchpin of a team in a dogfight division race that wouldn't even be contending for the wildcard if he wasn't on the team. Either of those would be acceptable choices, in my eyes.
As for who should be MVP, I think it's a race between A-Rod and Q-Dog, as Rodriguez has the best stats but is on a non-contender, has missed some time, and is generally hated by the media. Quentin has great-but-not-the-very-best stats but is the linchpin of a team in a dogfight division race that wouldn't even be contending for the wildcard if he wasn't on the team. Either of those would be acceptable choices, in my eyes.
About right.
At the same time, isn't it amazing that the Indians had Sizemore and Lee performing at these levels (along with CC) and they still stank up the room? Tells you just how valuable Travis Hafner is, among other things.
Jason
08-20-2008, 02:43 PM
A-Rod is great but I don't forsee him getting it because like you said, hes not on a contending team. Not that you should have to be, but if your team is winning solely because of you then in essence you are more valuable. A-Rod cant carry the Yankees lack of pitching and inconsistent offense.
jcmanuel
08-20-2008, 06:16 PM
Aubrey Huff!!
Aubrey Huff!!
You're stupid!
A-Rod is great but I don't forsee him getting it because like you said, hes not on a contending team. Not that you should have to be, but if your team is winning solely because of you then in essence you are more valuable. A-Rod cant carry the Yankees lack of pitching and inconsistent offense.
Team performance is not a voting criteria for the MVP.
Sadly, however, team performance is a voting criteria for the MVP. :confused:
merlin13
08-27-2008, 06:56 PM
I have to go with Youkalis on this one. I really don't follow AL too close until playoff time. It seems to me he has either sparked or kept a rally going. I think pitchers, whether they close, set-up,or start really can't be MVPs. The season is 164 games long, not 41, which is the average total appearances the pitchers of today will make. Of those appearances how many will really be positive.
You should watch more AL baseball
I have to go with Youkalis on this one. I really don't follow AL too close until playoff time. It seems to me he has either sparked or kept a rally going. I think pitchers, whether they close, set-up,or start really can't be MVPs. The season is 164 games long, not 41, which is the average total appearances the pitchers of today will make. Of those appearances how many will really be positive.
The season is 162 games long, not 164. And if you don't think 41 appearances is enough to earn this award, why does Youk 'getting hot, I think, when I start watching around the playoffs' earn it? Youk should be like the 6th or 8th vote getter, no the MVP.
Hanover Fist
08-29-2008, 07:29 AM
K-Rod if he gets 60+ saves???
TheImpossibleMan
08-29-2008, 08:05 PM
K-Rod if he gets 60+ saves???
No way, he's just been given ridiculous chances. I saw a breakdown once; you could put a pitcher with an ERA of 7 in K-Rod's place, and if he was used the same way you could reasonably expect him to get 40 saves. The save is a hugely overrated statistic.
Cliff Lee is mvp hands down, look at Clevelands record, and the injuries to their staff,bullpen, and star offensive players and he alone has them close to 500 ball
Uknowiphat
09-03-2008, 12:11 PM
Cliff Lee, but I am an Indian's homo.
I guess "Other" is for Hamilton
lilchip
09-05-2008, 09:36 PM
The odds-on favorite Quentin to win this trophy likely ended his season by his own hand, I'm a Cubs fan and I still think it's a shame.
Cliff Lee is mvp hands down, look at Clevelands record, and the injuries to their staff,bullpen, and star offensive players and he alone has them close to 500 ball
mongo
09-06-2008, 12:10 AM
it'll either be k-rod or jacoby. i hate them both, but fuck.
it'll either be k-rod or jacoby. i hate them both, but fuck.
...Jacoby?
As in Ellsbury?
As in batting .264/.328/.364? Really?
TheImpossibleMan
09-06-2008, 11:00 PM
Perhaps he mixed up his scrappy white Bostonians and meant Dustin Pedroia, who is .332/.378/.505 as we speak at 2B?
I hate Pedroia, but that little shit is having one hell of a season. If the Red Sux win the East, and now that Quentin's out, I think he's the guy.
They're not going to give it to Cliff Lee when his team is that awful (though they've had a much better second half). Especially not to a pitcher on a bad team.
goldsoundz
09-07-2008, 11:49 AM
pedroia's not even the mvp of his team. that would be youklis
the Indians are far from awful, its not like they are 30 games under .500
the only two deserving people in the A.L are on teams with almost identical records, Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee, if neither of those guys wins the MVP, it will be a crock of shit
if Lee wins today he will be 21-2, say he goes 23 or 24-2, with an era at 2.50 or less, how is he not the best player right now in the american league?
pedroia's not even the mvp of his team. that would be youklis
It's worth noting Pedroia leads Youkalis by almost 10 VORP (so about a full win under WARP). Now obviously regular voters are going to look at regular numbers and see more homers, RBI, higher SLG, and probably vote for Youkalis, but Pedroia-at-2nd is more valuable than Youk-at-1st.
the Indians are far from awful, its not like they are 30 games under .500
the only two deserving people in the A.L are on teams with almost identical records, Josh Hamilton and Cliff Lee, if neither of those guys wins the MVP, it will be a crock of shit
if Lee wins today he will be 21-2, say he goes 23 or 24-2, with an era at 2.50 or less, how is he not the best player right now in the american league?
Like I said, compeltely valid argument for Lee.
Hamilton, however, is the third best player on his own team.
TheImpossibleMan
09-07-2008, 01:56 PM
Hamilton can eat a dick.
Hawk the Slayer
09-08-2008, 11:33 AM
Would have said Quentin, but you're not MVP if you miss the last month of the season with your team fighting for their playoff lives. So... I'm holding my nose and going with A-Rod. He's been outstanding all year (although he has an uncanny knack for homering when it LEAST matters...), and 17-for-20 in the steals department is pretty damn good for a third baseman these days. Youkilis and Hamilton should get some support... the writers' vote will be very interesting.
Hamilton can eat a dick.
He'd probably just smoke it
Hanover Fist
09-08-2008, 02:53 PM
While I would normally say a positional offensive player for MVP, the fact that Cliff Lee is 21-2 on a below .500 team is just unbelievable. I don't see how the selection for MVP and Cy Young aren't both his.
Hawk the Slayer
09-08-2008, 03:31 PM
While I would normally say a positional offensive player for MVP, the fact that Cliff Lee is 21-2 on a below .500 team is just unbelievable. I don't see how the selection for MVP and Cy Young aren't both his.
Because he only gets to help his team win once every 5 days?
Hanover Fist
09-08-2008, 03:36 PM
Because he only gets to help his team win once every 5 days?
Then it's even more impressive that he is responsible for a full 1/3 of his teams wins when only playing every 5th day. That makes the argument even more compelling for him as a "Most Valuable Player"
Because he only gets to help his team win once every 5 days?
You can measure value on a standard stat and a pitcher of Lee's level helps more than any other position player. The issue is the MVP does tend to be a position player's award, so you'd have to be pretty extraordinary to pull it out (and on a losing team even moreso). As you can see by the list, at the time of this thread's start Lee and Halladay had each provided a full win more than any position player had for their team (Lee 2 more). The field has tightened, but basically the same holds true now, 3 weeks later.
AL VORP leaders (position players):
ARod: 62.8
Grady Sizemore: 59.2
Aubrey Huff: 59.1
Dustin Pedroia: 58.5
Milton Bradley: 56.9
Ian Kinsler: 55.4
Curtis Granderson: 52.2
AL VORP leaders (pitchers):
Cliff Lee: 74
Roy Halladay: 64.7
The field has nearly caught up to Halladay, but Lee is still 11 VORP runs (with 10 roughly equaling one win) higher than his nearest competitor in ARod.
EDIT - As far as the two pitchers go, BP has an article on that today (http://baseballprospectus.com/unfiltered/?p=1012):
This is primarily supposed to be a data dump without advocating a position. I just want to at least put this out there to see if it becomes part of the discussion. Two weeks ago, I wrote that Cliff Lee would not only be my choice for AL Cy Young, but also for AL MVP. I’m not necessarily retracting that position based on this information.
Cliff Lee has made 28 starts this season, Roy Halladay 29. Of those, 13 are in-common starts: the A’s, Rays and Rangers twice, and the Angels, White Sox, Reds, Royals, Twins, Yankees and Mariners once. Those starts cancel out. Of the remaining starts, there seems to be a very wide gap in the calilber of competition, enough to at least mention. Of the 15 starts Cliff Lee does not have in common with Halladay, nine have come against teams in the bottom third in offense, as ranked by team EqA, and none have come against a team ranked in the top six.
Looking at it from the other direction, Halladay does not have a single not-in-common start against a team ranked below 18th in EqA. So of the 15 (in Halladay’s case, 16) not in common starts between the two, 60% of Lee’s have come against offenses worse than any of Halladay’s. Halladay also has four not-in-common starts (one against the Cubs, three against the Red Sox) better than any of Lee’s.
Let me run the data this way, because I think it illustrates the point. The following numbers are the team EqA ranks for each not-in-common opponent, highest to lowest.
Halladay: 3, 4, 4, 4, 9, 9, 9, 11, 11, 14, 14, 14, 14, 17, 18, 18
Lee: 7, 7, 7, 12, 13, 13, 21, 22, 22, 25, 26, 27, 28, 28, 28
It helps if you read those numbers right to left. It’s clear from this data that Cliff Lee has seen a significantly inferior set of opponents than Halladay has. Against the six teams listed above, the ones he’s faced more often than Halladay has, Lee has allowed 18 runs in 84 2/3 innings, a 1.91 RA in more than 40% of his innings pitched. Adding back in the common games, Lee has made 15 of his 28 starts against teams in the bottom third of the EqA rankings. Halladay has just six starts against that pool, with a 2.26 RA in 47 2/3 innings. Halladay has pitched about as well against poor offenses as Lee has, but he’s had much less opportunity to face them.
I’m reminded of the 2001 season, when the Twins’ Joe Mays had his career year thanks in no small part to catching the Tigers (21st) and Royals (30th) with startling regularity. Mays made 11 of his 34 starts and threw more than a third of his innings against those two teams, allowing 19 runs in 83 1/3 innings (2.05 RA). Mays made the All-Star team that year and even had some Cy Young support late in that season in what was a soft year for candidates in the AL. In fact, he was an ordinary pitcher who happened to throw a disproportionate number of innings against two lousy lineups. In the end, Mays garnered no votes in the balloting.
Cliff Lee’s performance this year is better than Mays’ was in 2001. However, his overall stat line is clearly being influenced by the competition, or lack of, that he’s faced. Whether that is enough to call into question the statistical argument that he’s both the best pitcher and best player in the league is unclear, but it should be a part of the discussion.
Down the stretch, Lee gets more of the same, with starts against the Royals (28th) again, the Twins (13th) and White Sox (12th) likely, although it does seem he’ll finally see the Red Sox (4th) along the way. Halladay looks like he’ll get the White Sox, Red Sox and the Orioles (11th) twice, so the gap between the two pitchers’ opponent pools will grow slightly.
so its his fault he pitches against teams in his own division?
shouldnt quentin be penalized because he gets to hit against all the shitty pitching in the al central?
that argument is gayer than saying he shouldnt win because he is a pitcher or on a losing team
so its his fault he pitches against teams in his own division?
shouldnt quentin be penalized because he gets to hit against all the shitty pitching in the al central?
that argument is gayer than saying he shouldnt win because he is a pitcher or on a losing team
I'm not saying that at all. Plus it's not assigning fault or judgement, but judging numbers in reality.
If by some amazing quirk of scheduling Johan Santana pitched against ONLY the Washington Nationals this year - guess what - his raw numbers would look better than he really was as a pitcher. This is the same reason Pedro's streak in the late 90s was as dominant (and likely far more so) than Koufax's streak because while the numbers were pretty similar (with Koufax's ERA slightly better). You have to take into account the strength of opponents.
It's not Lee's FAULT that he pitched against shitty teams more often, but it's also not Halladay's FAULT that he had to pitch against better ones.
what is Lees run support? and where does it rank? i have no idea just wondering, it should be abysmal because most of the indians lineup is batting .220 or so and he has to go out their and throw 1 run ball to have a chance of winning
According to ESPN (http://sports.espn.go.com/mlb/stats/pitching?sort=ERA&split=0&league=mlb&season=2008&seasonType=2&type=pitch3&ageMin=17&ageMax=51&hand=a&pos=all&minip=0) Cliff Lee is getting an average 5.89 runs per game. Halladay gets run support of 4.75.
EDIT - I didn't have it sorted by Run Support, so my order was wrong.
Another site's work (http://www.baseballthinkfactory.org/files/dialed_in/discussion/al_mvp_race_offense_plus_defense_opd_through_sept_ 02_2008/)
noahsdove
09-16-2008, 05:19 PM
As much as I hate to say it, A-Rod is a really good player. He is or should already be in the hall of fame for his playing but I went with YOOOOOOOOUK!
TheImpossibleMan
10-01-2008, 10:33 AM
This is the most insane year for MVP, it seems like no position player had a great year, and the combination of injuries (to guys like Quentin, Kinsler) and the best numbers guy (A-Rod) having a legitimately 'production' year means we really might see Cliff Lee win the MVP...and damn if I'm not starting to become convinced that he deserves it.
I still say Bradley (and, amazingly, Hamilton finally nudged past him in VORP). But if you don't want a DH, how about Joe Mauer? He might just end up getting fucked out of ANOTHER MVP he might deserve in a 9.6 WARP year, just like 2006 (tho I say Jeter deserved it, Mauer was certainly a better choice than Morneau).
Dustin Pedroia is probably the best bet. He's got the numbers, he's 'scrappy' or whatever, and he plays for a playoff team.
TheImpossibleMan
10-01-2008, 10:59 AM
Mauer and Jeter in 2006 were a total tossup, for my money. Both silly good, extremely close in WARP, played prime D positions and made the playoffs. That was one of the worst MVP choices I can think of.
Bradley would be a bad choice, he's a DH on a noncontender and doesn't play everday. You're right, it's either Pedroia or Mauer.
twisterf5
10-14-2008, 01:01 PM
has to be carlos