Baseball Prospectus

[TheImpossibleMan]

I just found out Stax has a BP account so I'm going to request hella articles...that place is awesome.

Cliff Lee profile:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8061

The Manny Show:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8062

Snakes Down a Drain:
http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8054

That's all for now, but god damn if I don't want every freaking article on that site.

[Stax]

Cliff Lee Profile:

Following his recent campaigns, Cliff Lee's 2008 season looks to have come completely out of the blue. What began as a productive year that many thought would fade with more innings has instead withstood the test of time, at least within the limits of this single season. What many people have forgotten is that there was a time when Cliff Lee was considered a quality prospect in the Expos' and Indians' systems, before fatigue, an inability to translate his pure stuff into results, and injuries all derailed what seemed like a promising career. Today we'll have a go at what we might expect from this new-look Lee going forward.

Clifton Phifer Lee was selected three times before finally signing with the Montreal Expos in the 2000 amateur entry draft; the lefty had also been chosen by the Marlins (#246, 1997) and the Orioles (#609, 1998) before signing as an Expos fourth-rounder (#105) and heading to Cape Fear in the Sally League. While Lee's walk rate (7.4 per nine) was atrocious during his 44 innings there, he did strike out nearly 13 batters per nine innings. The 22-year-old would spend the entirety of his full-season debut in 2001 at High-A Jupiter in the Florida State League, where he would put together a much more impressive showing: Lee struck out 10.6 per nine, walked a much more acceptable 3.8 batters per nine, and proved difficult to hit, giving up just 6.4 per nine at a level of play where poor defensive support makes that difficult. If not for a stiff shoulder that forced him to miss a month, he most likely would have walked away with the league's ERA title.

Baseball America would rank Lee the 11th-best prospect in the then-stacked Expos organization—this is an organization that had Brandon Phillips, Brad Wilkerson, and Grady Sizemore as their top three—mostly based off of his pure stuff and his recent FSL performance. According to BA, the Expos believed that they had gotten a steal in the fourth round when selecting Lee, as they felt he was one of the top three college southpaws in that year's draft class. Lee was known for having four above-average offerings, but his problem to that point had been consistent command of all of them; here was a pitcher who could struggle due to his lack of command, or absolutely dominate you when he was on. Baseball Prospectus 2002 discussed that the Expos wanted their young hurlers pitching to contact, and that despite this, Lee led the FSL in strikeout rate, "showing how tough he is to hit."

As for the 2002 season itself, Lee moved up to Double-A Harrisburg and continued to show off his stuff. He struck out 11 per nine while lowering his walk rate to 2.4 per nine, and though an increase in home runs (1.3 HR/9) was worrisome, he once again used his strikeouts and the Expos' pitch-to-contact style to hold the opposition to 6.4 hits per nine. Those low hit rates probably didn't help Lee in the long term, though, as they made him appear to be a more accomplished and polished pitcher than really he was at that stage.

Lee was a piece in the blockbuster deal that Nationals fans might have nightmares about (who knows what Expos fans think these days), because that was the exchange where Grady Sizemore, Brandon Phillips, and this Cy Young candidate were all swapped for a few months of Bartolo Colon (and Tim Drew). The Indians plopped Lee onto their own Double-A affiliate for all of three starts, then moved him to Triple-A. He didn't set the world ablaze there, striking out just 6.3 per nine and walking 4.6, a big increase on his previous marks. Despite this, the Indians called him up to the big leagues at the end of the year, where he posted a 1.77 ERA in 10 1/3 innings, even though he had more walks (8) than strikeouts (6).

Baseball America was excited be Lee's potential, ranking him the third-best prospect in the Indians' stacked farm system—they'd ended up stealing most of the best of the Expos' system, adding Phillips, Lee, and Sizemore to Victor Martinez, Jeremy Guthrie, Travis Hafner, Jhonny Peralta, Ryan Church, Coco Crisp, Ben Broussard, and Josh Bard among their top 30. Baseball Prospectus 2003 pegged Lee perfectly:

...Lee has a variety of brutal pitches ... and he can throw all four for strikes. Which is not to say that he does throw them for strikes ... but it happens. Lee is pure stuff at this point, with his control coming and going. He's a guy who could find consistent command and be a great pitcher, or he could be one of the majors' flakiest starters and would still be a guy I'd buy a ticket, and a OSHA-approved hardhat, to go see...

Lee would begin the season in the minors after straining his abdomen during camp, and in spite of pitching in pain—he required hernia surgery after the season ended—he did pretty well for himself. He was able to improve on his strikeout rates from his last time at the level (8.7 per nine), but his walk rates (4.4 per nine) still left something to be desired. Lee was called up to the majors and slotted into the rotation on August 16, and he would pitch well, except for two starts where he was forced out early. Baseball Prospectus 2004 said he could end up, "somewhere between Steve Trout and [Sid] Fernandez, either merely succeeding or flat-out torching the league, but it will be fun to see which way he goes, starting this year."

Sadly for Lee, he was the one getting torched during his first full year in the majors. He threw 179 innings, and though the front half of those went well (3.77 ERA, 7.3 K/9, 4.3 BB/9, and 1.0 HR/9 in 107 1/3 IP), his second half was downright awful, posting a 5.79 ERA thanks to 2.3 HR/9 and 11 hits per nine, and that in spite of more strikeouts (9.3 per nine) and fewer walks (3.8). Baseball Prospectus 2005 noted that this was a case of a "dead arm" that caused his mistakes to end up in orbit rather than as outs.

Essentially, we had a young power lefty coming into his own slowly during the first 153 2/3 innings of his career, and then saw him get derailed by fatigue during the second half of 2004. He would give us something closer to his minor league performances and his early time in the majors in 2005, by delivering a 3.79 ERA and 202 innings pitched. He managed to drop his walk rate significantly, cutting it down to 2.3 per nine; the only negative that came from this was a drop in his strikeout rate as well, although it was a still-respectable (but not dominating) 6.4 per nine. His 2006 campaign was a lot like 2005, with an above-average strikeout rate and a low walk rate making him a quality pitcher. It was easy to lose hope about Lee heading into the 2007 season, as he had just posted a career low in strikeout rate, and despite the improvement in the walks and control department, he had also given up more hits and homers than was normal for him. Pitching through an abdominal strain in 2007 did nothing but harm his reputation further, as he posted a 6.29 ERA over 97 1/3 innings pitched, with 1.6 HR/9 and a slight uptick in walks to 3.3 per nine.

Lee should have been better than he was that year, at least based on his quality walk and strikeout rates as well as his excellent stuff, but the homers were a problem that weren't going to go away unless his high fly-ball rate came down. That appeared easier to say than do; Lee was an extreme fly-ball pitcher, and the 2006-2007 seasons, the ones where his homer rates exploded, were his most fly ball-happy yet.

The first step in recognizing Lee's genuine improvement as a pitcher in 2008 comes from taking a look at his batted-ball data, as Lee has given the Indians something closer to the average G/F ratio, coming in at 1.3 rather than an extreme like 0.7. Unsurprisingly, dropping his fly-ball rate by nearly 15 percent also means that his homer rate has cratered, as he's given up just 0.4 per nine on the year, and just 3.8 of his fly balls have gone for homers. While that's so low as to be unsustainable, chances are good that this new approach that's earning him more grounders will keep him from the ridiculous rates of homers allowed he was suffering through before.

Lee also improved further on the command that he had developed during his time in the majors, and looking at his strikeout and walk rates, leaves you with the sense that he puts the ball wherever he wants to against the opposition. He's striking out nearly seven per nine, standard fare for him, but he's walking just 1.3 per nine. If we were to adjust his BB/9 to his career rate of 2.7, via QERA we would still have a pitcher deserving of an ERA in the 3.47 range; since QERA is based off of components that aren't as susceptible to luck as others—more on that later—it's something we can trust more than his current (or past) ERA figures. It would be nice for the Indians if he could post an ERA of 2.28 every year, but they should be satisfied with a legitimate ace in the 3.50 range as well. Amazingly enough, that 3.47 QERA is not all that far off from his 90th-percentile PECOTA forecast this year: that had him down for an ERA of 3.81, 6.1 K/9, and 2.9 BB/9 with 1.0 HR/9.

A power lefty who took some years to put things together—that's not exactly an oddity, given the tendencies of many power lefties from the past. Think of Floyd Bannister, Mark Langston, Randy Johnson, Frank Viola: all of those pitchers had to get over some hiccups before turning into the quality pitchers we remember them as. The career arc for a power lefty is something we may forget, as there aren't that many of them for us to analyze; without a constant stream of them to remind us of situations like Lee's, we may forget that they very well may turn into the pitcher we always thought they could become. Lee always had the stuff, and now he has the numbers working in his favor as well.—Marc Normandin

Performance Evaluation

If last week we looked at Ryan Ludwick, a player whose success has been deemed a great story, then Cliff Lee's incredible performance this year is nothing short of unbelievable. For the record, I mean unbelievable in the very literal sense of the word, as the large majority of baseball fans simply cannot believe that Lee has been this good. In fact, one of my favorite things to do following a Lee start is to check for blog posts wondering whether or not he is "for real." What does that even mean?

My inclination is that being "for real" would involve a performance line more talent-driven than the result of luck. Is this the case for the Indians lefty? Well, I am forced to give an ambiguous "yes and no" answer, since there are many aspects of his success directly related to talent or a change in approach, but there is at least one red flag that should regress either over this next month or next season.

In April, Lee was performing better than Pedro Martinez circa 1999-2000, with numbers largely built upon a ridiculously low—unsustainably low—sub-.200 BABIP. He had always struck batters out at a respectable rate, but his rates of walks and home runs were high enough to prevent him from being a very successful pitcher. That inaugural month saw Lee walk next to nobody and vastly limit his home runs, allowing all of... well, one. The extremely low BABIP was begging for subsequent regression, so he naturally had a significant number of doubters.

As more starts passed and more statistics accrued, it became clear that Lee had turned himself into a different pitcher. He'd sustained high strikeout rates in the past, but now he was doing so while limiting his walks to an extent that his K/BB stayed above 4.5, steadily rising to its current 5.5. So, he was striking batters out, avoiding free passes, and keeping the ball in the yard, all controllable skills for a hurler, and elements of performance that are that much more impervious to luck than success based on balls in play (ie, based on how well his teammates field). His BABIP soon regressed to .298, right around the league average, but lo and behold, he still kept delivering tremendous performances. Even his rate of stranding runners normalized to a still above-average but sustainable 78 percent.

These signs pointed towards this being a legitimate improvement, but there's still the question of why he's improved. For starters, one of the first numbers to stabilize are rates of balls in play. In every year prior, Lee had produced ground-ball rates between 33 and 36 percent, and fly-ball rates around 45 or 46 percent. This year, however, his ground balls are at a career-high 46 percent, while his fly balls allowed are at a career-low 35 percent. On top of that, his rate of home runs per fly ball is at a (likely unsustainable) four percent. Given that the league average hovers around 11 percent, this is one luck-based indicator that is sure to regress over this final month, not to mention next season. However, along with this rate-based improvement, in terms of what he's doing on the mound, his fastball has gained velocity, but he's also mixing in more curveballs.

With all of that in mind, I feel confident that Lee can continue being successful, but it is not very likely that he will post numbers like this next year. The common misconception is that this slight decline would mean he is not a good pitcher, but nothing could be further from the truth. If he truly has become a different pitcher with a different approach, based on his location, sequencing, and an improved ability to keep the ball on the ground, then he would have the ability to post solid numbers in the future. For all we know, his luck-based indicators could lead to some unlucky runs next year that, when coupled with a higher home-run rate might inflate his ERA, but Lee's performance this year has definitely been more due to a change in approach than luck.—Eric Seidman

Scouting Report

When people ask me to explain the difference between Cliff Lee circa 2007 and the one we're seeing now, I have two answers. The first one is based on pure scouting, and is therefore scientific and easier to understand, and perhaps even to agree with. Beyond Lee's much-improved physical conditioning, the Indians simplified Lee's mechanics by focusing on getting the left-hander to use the same release point on all of his pitches, and achieving what he does with his secondary pitches with only grip and arm action. That's the explanation for improved command—one delivery to commit to muscle memory, one delivery to perfect and to gain consistency with. That aspect of Lee's transformation has been a rousing success.

The second aspect is a bit more abstract, and not something that can be explained with any kind of metric or spreadsheet. I still remember a conversation that I had with a scout, and while I don't even remember who we were talking about, the point stuck with me. A significant percentage of pitching has little to do with radar guns, but rather involves fearlessness and confidence. Lee had very little of either last year, and this year he started out well, built them back up, and they have soared from there. Believe it or not, sometimes that can mean all the difference in the world. He doesn't have monster stuff, but depending on how you count pitch variations, he has up to five offerings, as well as the confidence to use any of them (four-seam, cutter, curve, slider, changeup) at any point in the count, and in any situation. He's not aiming for the perfect spot any more; he's simply aware of where he wants each pitch to be and letting it fly. He recognizes what's working and what's not in any single start, and he now makes adjustments to accentuate the positive and eliminate the negative on a start-to-start basis instead of pitching to a template. He's pitching smarter, and he's now attacking hitters as opposed to defending against them. It's one of the hardest things in the world to teach a player, and it may sound like a bit too much of that old-time religion, but that's been the real key to Lee's remarkable season. It's much deeper than Crash Davis' advice—"don't think, just throw"—that works when you have closer stuff in your arsenal. This is more, "Think, but not too much, and just throw."—Kevin Goldstein

[Stax]

The Manny Show:

Earlier this summer, for a research project, I had occasion to review the career of former Dodger slugger Pedro Guerrero, a favorite player of my youth. Guerrero spent the first few years of his major league career—or 1978-1980, for those too young to remember—waiting for Steve Garvey and company to grow old. In the interim, he was forced to learn other positions, playing every spot except for catcher and shortstop, finally cracking the Dodgers' lineup as a right fielder for a couple of years. When Ron Cey was traded to the Cubs following the 1982 season, Guerrero began a nasty, short, and brutish war of attrition with third base. His range at the hot corner was above-average, and his arm was strong, but his footwork was lousy. The media tended to focus on his errors (46 in 1983-1984) rather than the plays he made, but Guerrero paid his critics no mind. "I can f---ing hit" was his blunt refrain, and brother, could he ever. Guerrero finished in the top three in Equivalent Average three times over the 1982-1985 span, often carrying a meager Dodger offense on his back for weeks at a time.

I'm reminded of Guerrero because I swear I'm seeing the reincarnation of that one-man Dodger blue wrecking crew in the form of Manny Ramirez right now, night after night after night. Ladies and gentlemen, in case you haven't been paying attention, know this: Manny Ramirez can f---ing hit. Since coming to the Dodgers in a three-way deal consummated just moments before the July 31 trading deadline, he's batting .396/.498/.776 with 14 home runs in 166 plate appearances, while helping his new club climb from two games behind the Diamondbacks in the NL West to 3½ ahead of them. On the heels of his controversial exit from Boston, he showed up in Tinseltown, chose jersey number 99, promised to cut his dreadlocks in due course (but barely obliged), ignited a merchandising craze, and charmed his fans, teammates, and even his stony-faced manager with his between-innings misadventures. Amid all of the distractions, he's simply beaten the tar out of the ball, and the Dodger offense has begun to click. On Wednesday night, he crushed a pair of opposite-field home runs in Petco Park, one of the majors' least homer-friendly venues.

Ramirez is taking advantage of an easier league and a softer schedule than he faced in Boston, not to mention a slate of pitchers that appear to have little idea of how to pitch to him. If they bother at all, that is; Ramirez has drawn 14 intentional walks as a Dodger, a total that already ranks fifth in the league, and may well rank second by season's end (nobody's going to catch Albert Pujols at 32 and counting). As well as he's hit, Ramirez's presence in the lineup hasn't had as drastic an effect on scoring as you might expect due to the Dodgers' notorious streakiness, as can be seen in a recent 10-game span in which they scraped together just 21 runs. Ramirez hit .297/.381/.405 during that stretch, and didn't drive in a run until the final game, but he wasn't the only one at fault; his teammates hit an even more feeble .239/.293/.350 while going about 1-for-75 with runners in scoring position. As such, the overall uptick in scoring since Ramirez joined the lineup isn't huge, though his impact on the offense's underlying performance is more clear:


Period R/G AVG/ OBP/ SLG W-L
3/30-7/31 4.17 .256/.321/.376 54-54
8/1-9/10 4.37 .277/.346/.450 21-17

Since his arrival in LA, much has been made about Ramirez's effect on the hitters in front of him as well. The notion of lineup protection—the mere threat of a fearsome on-deck hitter elevating the performance of the hitter ahead of him by inducing pitchers to throw more hittable pitches so as to avoid a walk—has been at least somewhat debunked over the years, but you wouldn't know it to look at the Dodgers' stats, as Jeff Kent and Andre Ethier have enjoyed their hottest stretches of the season batting in front of Manny. Indulge me, and let's compare the performances of his teammates with and without him batting behind them:


In Front PA HR AVG/ OBP/ SLG
David Ortiz 241 14 .252/.349/.500
J.D. Drew 161 10 .252/.391/.591
Kevin Youkilis 34 2 .379/.412/.724
Sean Casey 1 0 .000/.000/.000
Red Sox Total 437 26 .262/.368/.548
Jeff Kent 83 1 .380/.410/.481
Andre Ethier 55 3 .500/.582/.957
Russell Martin 23 0 .227/.261/.227
N. Garciaparra 4 0 .000/.000/.000
Pablo Ozuna 3 0 .333/.333/.333
Hong-Chih Kuo 1 0 .000/.000/.000
Dodgers Total 169 4 .381/.432/.568
Total Total 606 30 .297/.386/.554
Top 4 540 28 .299/.394/.568

Not in Front PA HR AVG/ OBP/ SLG
David Ortiz 192 4 .282/.414/.455
J.D. Drew 290 9 .295/.417/.485
Kevin Youkilis 526 23 .309/.386/.550
Sean Casey 187 0 .347/.406/.424
Red Sox Total 1195 36 .308/.401/.500
Jeff Kent 383 10 .252/.305/.394
Andre Ethier 480 17 .277/.340/.476
Russell Martin 568 12 .280/.382/.401
N. Garciaparra 154 6 .241/.292/.404
Pablo Ozuna 84 0 .253/.280/.316
Hong-Chih Kuo 13 0 .273/.273/.364
Dodgers Total 1682 45 .268/.338/.416
Total Total 2877 81 .284/.364/.450
Top 4 1345 40 .274/.357/.450

Now, I'm not going to stand on the observation deck of the gold-plated Baseball Prospectus World Headquarters skyscraper and proclaim this to be the most statistically valid sample set of all time. But it is interesting, particularly if we narrow the focus from the performances of all the players who have batted in front of Ramirez with and without his presence (where we have almost five times as many PA in the "without" heap, the majority of which were accumulated by players with less than 40 PA in front of him this year) to the four most frequent hitters (Ortiz, Drew, Kent and Ethier, who have about 2½ times as many PA in the "without" heap). With the Red Sox alone, the effect is mostly a wash; with Ramirez in the lineup, the hitters in front of him have a lower OBP that's largely canceled out by a higher SLG. With the Dodgers, the difference is dramatic, though dismissable as a small-sample fluke (what, you're expecting Ethier to bat .500?). Still, the latter is a torrid enough performance that the overall difference among the top four hitters still comes out to more than 150 points of OPS. Apply as much salt as you want before digesting that; it's still part of the weird arc of Ramirez's season and the two teams who have employed him.

I've been saying this since I covered the Red Sox for Baseball Prospectus 2007, but feeling it for the better part of his tenure in Boston: Ramirez deserves to be considered among the game's all-time greatest hitters. Among players with at least 5,000 career plate appearances, he ranks 15th in Equivalent Average (adjusted for all-time version), and if you raise the bar to 8,000 PA, he's 12th:


Batter EqA PA
Babe Ruth* .363 10617
Ted Williams* .359 9789
Barry Bonds* .355 12606
Albert Pujols .345 5311
Mickey Mantle# .342 9909
Lou Gehrig* .341 9660
Rogers Hornsby .337 9475
Frank Thomas .336 10074
Mark McGwire .334 7660
Stan Musial* .332 12712
Willie Mays .330 12493
Ty Cobb* .330 13072
Dick Allen .328 7314
Hank Aaron .328 13940
Manny Ramirez .328 8938
Mel Ott* .328 11337
Joe Jackson* .327 5690
Johnny Mize* .327 7371
Joe DiMaggio .326 7671
Dan Brouthers* .326 7676
Edgar Martinez .326 8672
*: left-handed; #: switch-hitter

How about this: among right-handed hitters with at least 8,000 PA, Manny Ramirez ranks fifth all-time in EqA, behind just Hornsby, Thomas, Mays, and Aaron. Yeah, I think it's safe to say that some of those guys could hit.

It will be fascinating to see what lies ahead for Ramirez. His trade out of Boston quashed the pair of $20 million club options that his employers held on his services for 2009-2010, but before that, his in-season agitation for the Red Sox to decide whether to exercise the first of those options generated a firestorm of controversy which included accusations from teammates, club officials, and some of the most powerful baseball writers in the business that he faked injuries and ultimately quit on his team. Reading the coverage back in late July, one would have thought we were amid a cross between the Boston Strangler, Godzilla, Derek Bell, and the second coming of Hal Chase. There are rumors he'll be seeking a four-year, $100 million deal this winter, outrageous, Boras-fueled numbers for a player in his age-37 to age-40 seasons, and one who may already be unfit for any position this side of designated hitter.

Both before and after the trade, I viewed the anti-Ramirez coverage with a jaundiced eye, though I say this while disclosing that I do have partisan interests on both ends of this deal: I live in New York and root for the Yankees and against the Red Sox, having done so for the past 13 years; and I'm also a lifelong Dodger fan, remaining so even beyond the influences of my current geographical locale. Even with that in mind, one can't ignore the combination of the following without inducing a fair amount of skepticism that we were getting the real story regarding Ramirez's departure:

* A long history of particularly gruesome endings that numerous superstars' Boston tenures have come to (Nomar Garciaparra, Pedro Martinez, Roger Clemens, Carlton Fisk, Jim Rice, Luis Tiant).
* The cozy relationship between certain high-profile Boston-linked writers and Red Sox brass.
* The consistent manner in which the current John Henry/Larry Lucchino/Theo Epstein regime has aired its laundry by attempting to negotiate its most controversial proceedings through the media (the Alex Rodriguez non-trade, the Curt Schilling trade, the departures of several members of the 2004 champions)

Given all of that and the need to fill a 24-hour news cycle, how much of the Manny-quit-on-the-team meme can one endure before such "news" starts to fail the smell test? At the end of the day, all we really know is that the Red Sox had been making more or less annual attempts to trade Ramirez by placing him on waivers following the baseball season since at least 2003, when he was less than halfway into the eight-year, $160 million deal that he'd signed back in December 2000, but that they were unable to complete a deal until July 31, 2008. Perhaps that's because Manny was universally viewed as a head case and a pernicious influence on clubhouse chemistry. Or perhaps that's because the Red Sox were unwilling to kick in more than a fraction ($7 million) of a single season's salary before they were willing to punt a hitter whose production over the past seven and a half years was surpassed only by Barry Bonds and Albert Pujols.

No matter which team he's playing for, Ramirez is a unique and occasionally frustrating ballplayer, with a back story stocked with urban legends, provocative and often counterproductive statements and actions, visible lapses (particularly afield) and absences... and one of the most potent bats you'll ever see. As a fan of a rival team, I used to loathe his presence while selectively buying into much of the negative hype surrounding him, but Ben McGrath's excellent New Yorker piece heightened my appreciation for his talents and his idiosyncrasies. Beyond the microscope of the Boston media, Ramirez is renowned for his work ethic as well as his quirks, and the coverage of his brief tenure in LA has been as glowingly positive as that of his final days in Boston was negative; he's been hailed by Joe Torre and his new teammates in a manner that suggests imminent knighthood if not sainthood. Slugging .776 will do that, even if—to borrow a phrase from Ball Four—you have hair halfway down to your ass.

To put it another way: if Ramirez is such a negative presence on a club, how come Matt Kemp had to double over to avoid visibly busting a gut in front of the cameras after Manny made a running basket catch of a fly ball late in Wednesday night's contest? I don't know the answer to that beyond a weak invocation of the old saw about how winning creates good chemistry, nor do I know what to think about the craziness that his future almost certainly holds. I just know that Ramirez is as hot as any hitter in baseball right now, and he constitutes as entertaining a show as the game has to offer. I'll be watching.

[Stax]

Snakes Down a Drain:

This past Saturday, the Arizona Diamondbacks did what they've been threatening to do for the better part of the last four months: they surrendered first place in the NL West, a position they had held at least a share of since April 6. Back in April, they appeared poised to build on last year's league-best record and run away with the division flag. Since then, they've been an adventure in mediocrity. On the heels of a three-game sweep by the Dodgers, Monday night's loss even knocked them below .500. If you were in an airplane with their Postseason Odds, you'd have strapped on your parachute, unbolted the door, and checked the crossbreeze by now.

Before peering too deeply into the abyss, a brief refresher course is in order. Recall that the Diamondbacks finished with a 90-72 record but became just the sixth team to make the postseason with a negative run differential. They wound up 12.2 games above their third-order projection, the third-highest mark of all time. It wasn't hard to envision the old Bill James Plexiglass Principle coming back to swat them on their collective derriere; exceeding expectations two years in a row is a very tough act. Nonetheless, the addition of Dan Haren to the rotation via a blockbuster trade with the A's, the return of Randy Johnson from injury, and steady improvement by a nucleus of players 25 or under—Stephen Drew, Mark Reynolds, Justin Upton, and Chris B. Young—figured to make the Diamondbacks at least co-favorites in the NL West. PECOTA forecasted an 87-75 finish and a +58 run differential (821 runs scored, 763 runs allowed). Not thrilling, but nice.

That forecast looked to be well on the low side through the first month of this season. The Diamondbacks compiled the best record (20-8) and run differential (+56) through April 30 while opening up a 5½-game lead in the division. They scored 5.9 runs per game to that point, second best in the majors. Even more impressively, they allowed just 3.9 runs per game (third best in the majors), a Herculean feat given that they play half their games in the second-best hitters' park in the bigs. But since that sprint out of the gate, the D'backs have gone just 51-65 while wheezing their way to 4.2 runs per game (24th in the majors) and yielding 4.6 per game (14th).

The Diamondbacks' problems are myriad, starting with the fact that their offense just isn't all that much to write home about. They're ninth in the NL in both OBP (.324) and slugging (.412), and once their ballpark is factored into the equation, they rank 13th in the league in EqA (.251). They've simply got too many hitters who don't get on base enough, starting with Young (.309) and Drew (.318), who have combined to take about two-thirds of the team's plate appearances in the top two spots of the batting order. Though the latter has improved his OBP greatly since manager Bob Melvin moved him to the leadoff slot, that's more a function of luck on balls in play than of the kind of plate discipline that wears well in that spot over the long haul. Consider these performances (stats through Monday):


Bat 1st AVG OBP SLG BABIP K/UIBB PA/UIBB
Young .230 .314 .395 .271 2.1 9.4
Drew .303 .344 .492 .349 3.3 19.0
Lg Avg .272 .339 .423 .305 1.9 12.2

Bat 2nd AVG OBP SLG BABIP K/UIBB PA/UIBB
Young .280 .319 .536 .345 4.6 16.9
Drew .261 .281 .441 .281 7.0 42.0
Lg Avg .275 .336 .414 .312 2.0 11.7

Though both hitters have provided above-average power in the top two spots, on the balance it hasn't been enough to offset their other shortcomings, which include the minimal but particularly unspectacular performance of injury-wracked Eric Byrnes in contributing to this mess with about 10 percent of the team's PAs in the leadoff or second slots. In all, the top two spots in NL batting orders have combined to hit .274/.338/.419, while the Snakes' top two have hit .255/.313/.416, in a hitter-friendly environment to boot. Talk about getting off on the wrong foot. Young appears bound for a performance between his 10th and 25th percentiles PECOTA-wise; he's one of many promising center fielders around the majors who haven't lived up to their potentials this year. (Melky Cabrera, Carlos Gomez, and Jacoby Ellsbury come to mind, but that's a topic for another day.) The aforementioned quartet of young Snakes (Young, Drew, Reynolds, and Upton) were forecast for a combined .271/.345/.490 performance by PECOTA, but they've hit just .255/.322/.456.

Though they're ninth in slugging and tied for 10th in home runs, it's not entirely accurate to say that the Diamondbacks are short in the power department—though they've got plenty to kick themselves over when it comes to last winter's trade of AL home-run leader Carlos Quentin and the decision to give Eric Byrnes a long-term extension. Their Isolated Power (.162) is a respectable fifth in the league, but what hurts them is the fact that they don't make enough contact; they're 12th in batting average and second in strikeouts, with Reynolds (182 Ks) and Young (150) second and third in the league, respectively. Newcomer Adam Dunn, who's added some much-needed punch and plate discipline (.268/.455/.488 since being acquired from the Reds on August 11), is fifth in strikeouts, with 146 including his time in Cincinnati. That can make for some breezy nights in the high desert. Furthermore, the Snakes haven't really shown all that much power since their phenomenal first month. The Diamondbacks hit .268/.345/.468 through the end of April, but just .246/.319/.398 since. Conor Jackson slugged .630 in that first month, and has been hailed as one of the team's hitters who's come of age, but he's managed just a .405 SLG since, while Justin Upton fell off from .554 to .357.

Despite the boost provided by Dunn, the Diamondbacks are still reeling from the loss of Orlando Hudson, whose season ended when he dislocated his wrist on August 9, and has since undergone two surgeries to repair ligament damage. Hudson was second on the team in EqA at the time of his injury (.277) and he still leads all Diamondback hitters in WARP1 (6.0) after being gone for a month; what's more, the defense has suffered tremendously in his absence, dropping from a .693 Defensive Efficiency rate before the injury to .665 after, albeit in a much, much smaller sample size. It's probably just a coincidence that ace Brandon Webb has put up a 5.71 ERA and three straight disaster starts in his absence, but one doubts he feels a greater sense of security without the O-Dog gobbling up ground balls behind him.

Webb hasn't been alone in his struggles, either. Haren has put up a 6.17 ERA with just two quality starts out of seven since the beginning of August. Both pitchers reportedly dealt with arm issues earlier in the year (shoulder tendonitis and a cortisone shot for Webb, forearm stiffness for Haren), though their maladies haven't lined up with their performance woes. The official line—that Webb is simply struggling to command his sinker, while Haren has been out of whack mechanically—is a bit more ominous when one considers the fact that even with that dynamic duo, the Diamondbacks are just eighth in the league in SNLVAR. Randy Johnson's scratched start this past weekend, coming on the heels of an ugly outing on September 1, broke a string in which he'd strung together eight quality starts and posted a 1.82 ERA. Even so, he's still yielding 4.85 runs per nine (including unearned runs) and has a Support Neutral Winning Percentage (SNLVA_R + .5) of .489; one doesn't really know what to expect from the Big Unit on any given day. Max Scherzer certainly can put up tantalizing numbers, such as his 11 strikeouts in five innings in place of Johnson on Sunday, but his short leash—he's broken 95 pitches just once—puts a strain on the bullpen.

This is an especially ungood thing because the pen has rather quietly been one of the Diamondbacks' bigger problems this year. Last year's overachievement was owed in part to a relief corps that was second in the league in WXRL; Brandon Lyon, Jose Valverde, and Tony Peña all ranked in the top 10 individually. Valverde was traded over the winter to the Astros for no good reason, and a package of Chad Qualls, Chris Burke, and Juan Gutierrez, in that order. Lyon is probably the least imposing late-inning option on the staff, but he assumed closer duties and has put up a 4.76 ERA, including an astronomical 10.93 since the All-Star break. His 1.047 WXRL is just third on the staff and 44th in the league; to put it in the context of closers, that figure ranks 28th among the 34 pitchers with at least 10 saves. Peña leads the staff and ranks a respectable 17th in the league, but he's the only Arizona reliever who's significantly more than a win above replacement level. Neither Qualls nor Juan Cruz has been particularly helpful, but worse has been Jon Rauch, whose -0.436 WXRL brings up the rear on the staff; he's yielded a 9.58 ERA since August 12, and his heavy workload (243 appearances and counting since the start of 2006, 16 more than the next pitcher, Aaron Heilman) may have finally caught up to him.

On the whole, this year's bullpen is 13th in the league in WXRL, hardly a recipe for a winner. In fact, since 1969 just eight teams have won their divisions with bullpens that ranked in the bottom quartile in the league in WXRL, and just three Wild Card teams have done so since 1995:


Year Team W-L WXRL Rank
1971 Orioles 101-57 -0.1 10
1974 Pirates 88-74 -0.5 11
1987 Twins 85-77 3.0 12
1990 Red Sox 88-74 2.3 12
1997 Mariners 90-72 0.3 14
2002 D'backs 98-64 4.9 13
2005 Braves 90-72 1.1 16
2007 Phillies 89-73 7.3 13
1995 Yankees 79-65 1.8 13
2003 Red Sox 95-67 3.9 11
2005 Red Sox 95-67 0.5 14

The Diamondbacks aren't quite dead yet. They have a slight advantage over the Dodgers with regards to their remaining schedule, in that just eight of their final 18 games are on the road, compared to 11 of the Dodgers' final 17 games. However, Arizona's four remaining games against the Cardinals represent the only opponents above .500 that either team will face the rest of the way, and the Postseason Odds Report has them with just a 13.4 percent chance of making the playoffs, compared to a 86.2 percent chance for the Dodgers. The LA club's penchant for injuries and streaky play could leave the door open for Arizona, but even if they do, it's still up to the Diamondbacks to slither through it.

[TheImpossibleMan]

More requests....

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8113

[Stax]

Future Shock
The Alvarez Standoff, Resolved

Late Sunday night, the Pedro Alvarez drama took a turn towards a surprising conclusion when the second overall pick in this year's draft agreed to terms on a major league deal that could pay him as much as nearly $8 million over the next four years.

There is still much to be done here. Alvarez has yet to actually sign a contract. There is still a physical that needs to happen, and there are still items to be worked out, including the salary guarantee provisions and injury protections that agent Scott Boras routinely addends to the deals that he negotiates. In addition, the union and Major League Baseball have to agree to additional settlements around the grievance in order to put this all to bed. As a result, this week's grievance hearings will not take place, but for now, the grievance is officially on hold, as opposed to dropped. All indications are that this will all be taken care of over the next week or so, and all sides are working diligently to end this. This conclusion will also release Royals first-round pick Eric Hosmer from his "pending active" purgatory.

Conversations with multiple sources indicate that the Pirates and the Alvarez camp re-opened discussions on or around the first day of the hearing two weeks ago. These discussions took place with the knowledge and bilateral agreement of the union and Major League Baseball, and arbitrator Shyam Das also approved of the talks.

Sources indicate that the first day of testimony, which featured Commissioner Bud Selig and Dan Halem, MLB's number two labor attorney, did not go well in any way for major league baseball. The feeling among many is that MLB informed the Pirates to work out the best deal possible, as some worst-case scenarios were suddenly looking very possible, primarily the one that included the initial deal being voided and the Pirates being punished by losing their compensation pick for not signing him.

From a previous article on possible outcomes, this is most related to the second scenario I suggested, in which an additional negotiating window was provided. In theory, this provided Alvarez with a normalized negotiating arena, one that he did not have once the extensions were granted. As discussed in that piece, such an allowance would create some understandably hard feelings among other draftees and agents who feel that this arrangement allowed both the Pirates and Pedro Alvarez with more negotiating time, as well as more knowledge than either they or their clients received in their own negotiations. In order to avoid this from becoming an issue, both sides will hold their noses and work together to insist that this is no longer a draft contract. If you look at the details of the new deal, one aspect of it is very important with regards to this subject: the bonus has not changed. It remains $6 million, so that both sides can say that this is the draft deal initially agreed to, and that all of the things on top of it (the major league deal and all of its advantages, the guaranteed salaries, etc.) represent the settlement in this case.

As for the settlement of the grievance, there are still details to be worked out, and most of them revolve around the undocumented reporting process. The current system shuts the union out, as communications are solely between teams and MLB's offices. That helped create confusion as to the precise timing of the Alvarez and Hosmer situations, and some believe this might be addressed by no longer requiring an agreement of terms, but rather an executed contract by the deadline, with of course, no more extensions granted. This would eliminate much of the gray area, and many teams hope that it would also end Major League Baseball's ongoing practice of delaying the acceptance and announcements of many over-slot bonuses until the last week before the draft, a policy that delays teams from getting their highly-paid players on the field.

Let's make no mistake here—Scott Boras won this one. It's not a massive, blowout victory, but it's a win; he got his player more money and benefits. That wasn't necessarily the ultimate goal, but it counts for something. Beyond that, Boras ensured that this situation will not happen again, and on a grander scale, Pirates president Frank Coonelly took him on directly, and looks foolish for his troubles. As one front-office staffer with another team assessed the Pirates performance, "they went into a gun fight with a water pistol and ran away before shots were fired."

Make no mistakes either that the Pirates lost this one. Yes, they got their player, a potential middle-of-the-order run producer who instantly becomes the top prospect in the system, but at the same time, the negative image hit both externally and within baseball is massive. Polls taken by local media had most fans blaming the Pirates for this situation. Coonelly looks like a paper tiger after making a strongly-worded statement at the beginning of this situation, only to fold up like a cheap suit in the end and give Boras and Alvarez that extra negotiating window—the concept that he was so against in the first place.

Now we can start looking forward to next year's draft. Going into 2008, the Pirates' new administration was under considerable pressure to take a potential superstar, no matter the cost, and avoid the cheap tactics that had the previous administration selecting Daniel Moskos over Matt Wieters in 2007. If the season ended today, the Pirates would select fourth overall in the draft behind the Mariners, Nationals, and Padres. As usual, many of the top talents in the draft are being advised by Boras. This year's actions simply replace the pressure on next year's draft, as the Pirates once again could be placed in the position of being forced to select a Boras player or be once again accused of playing it cheap for a team that hasn't had a winning year since George W. Bush's father was president.

When the Pirates first had a press conference to announce the initial signing of Alvarez in August, owner Bob Nutting called the new administration, led by Coonelly and general manager Neal Huntington, "the single best management team in all of baseball, maybe all of sports." Much like Coonelly's opening statement which begun this battle, so far, that's all talk.

(This is Stax talking, cool to see the Alvarez thing is resolved)

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8230

Thanks in advance.

[Stax]

Prospectus Today
First Light from a New Ray
by Joe Sheehan

The Rays are going to the World Series instead of the Red Sox for one reason: they beat Jon Lester twice. We can talk about the homers they hit, the relief pitching they got, the post-season classic they won, the 7-0 lead they blew, the guy who's gone from the Florida State League to closing a pennant-clinching game in five months, but when you look at this series, what stands out is 2-0 against Lester. Those were supposed to be Sox wins, and if either of the two games had been, they and not the Rays would be AL champs today.

Lester was supposed to be the Sox's biggest edge. He was the third-best starter in the AL this year, the great lefty against a team with a platoon split problem, the pitcher who had shut down the Angels twice. The Rays scored five and three runs against Lester in a week's time; Lester had allowed more than one run just once in his eight starts coming into the ALCS. Beating him in Game Three took back home-field advantage and swung the series in their favor; beating him in Game Seven put them in the World Series. They beat him the way they had to, by hitting the ball a long way: three doubles and three homers were responsible for seven of the eight runs the Rays scored off of him.

If not for their ability to hit for power off of Lester, Matt Garza's work might have gone for naught. When he gave up a first-inning homer to Dustin Pedroia yesterday, it looked as if the Sox might do exactly what they needed to beat him: take him deep. Two hours later, that was the only hit the Sox had. Relying heavily on his fastball, Garza made the Sox hitters look old and tired, striking out nine of the 27 batters he faced, blowing away David Ortiz in a critical sixth-inning at-bat, and whiffing Jason Varitek with two on in the seventh. Whether he or B.J. Upton was the more deserving series MVP is debatable, but Garza was clearly worthy of the honor.

By the time the night was over, however, a new hero had emerged. David Price, about a year and change removed from his days as Vanderbilt's ace, with all of 123 2/3 professional innings under his belt, just 14 of those in the majors, was called on to get the last four outs for the Rays. Even in a bullpen not over-burdened with experience, Price is callow. Joe Maddon, however, chose his relievers last night not based on anything but who he believed could get outs in this ballgame. (Note the absence of Grant Balfour from the proceedings.) Price got J.D. Drew looking to end the eighth, and after a walk to start the ninth he blew away the bottom of the Sox lineup to put his team into the World Series.

Even Francisco Rodriguez's ascension wasn't quite this rapid. Price had made all of four relief appearances in September, and just one of those was in a remotely game-relevant situation. He didn't pitch in the ALDS and had thrown to one batter in Game One of the ALCS. As nearly the last man left, he pitched the Rays out of a jam in the 11th inning of Game Two. Then, last night, in the biggest moment in franchise history, when it had taken four of his teammates to get two outs in the eighth inning, he came in with his 95 mph heat and nasty breaking stuff, and suddenly no one cared about the size of his signing bonus.

Given that the Rays are about to take on a team with a ton of left-handed power, it's not entirely ridiculous to suggest that Price has become their most important relief pitcher, a week after being comfortably ensconced in a small box with a view of "YCNEGREME FO ESAC NI." Things move fast around here.

Credit Maddon for putting in Price in that situation. In fact, credit Maddon for his entire approach last night. I spent much of the evening taking notes and sending text messages criticizing his decisions, questioning leaving Garza in too long, or choosing Dan Wheeler in the eighth, or leaving Balfour in the pen. Looking back, I had it wrong, and Maddon knew what he wanted to do last night. He had a better feel for how the Sox were struggling with Garza, and he knew, perhaps all along, that David Price was going to be available at the end, so he could go batter-by-batter in getting to him.

Even now that they're out this year, the Red Sox aren't done, not by any means. They have talent, resources, a great front office, and a deep farm system. Last night, though, the age and depth of the current roster really showed. Ortiz and Varitek looked overmatched in key situations. Varitek's homer Saturday probably earned him an at-bat in the seventh on Sunday, but it was one that should have been taken by Sean Casey, Jacoby Ellsbury, or Jed Lowrie. Mark Kotsay had to bat against Price in the ninth, a matchup missed by television viewers with conservative V-chip settings. Poor Sox defense in the outfield corners contributed to two Rays runs. Drew made a brutal throw on Evan Longoria's third-inning double, which helped Carlos Pena and his piano score from first. In the fourth, Jason Bay was playing somewhere in the Gulf when Rocco Baldelli singled to left, and the distance he had to come to charge the ball allowed Willy Aybar—who expected to be held at third base—to score the lead run.

Last week, after the Red Sox came back from a 7-0 deficit in an elimination game to keep the series going, I mused about the role of soft factors, intangibles, and what have you in that type of occurrence, and what it might mean going forward. I still don't have an answer for how much of that comeback should be assigned to the Sox's experience or fortitude, although I do appreciate the extensive discussion on the site that followed the piece. As far as momentum goes, I think we got a pretty good answer as to the impact any one game, even an extremely thrilling or disappointing one, has on the next. The Rays led early in Game Six, came back to tie once passed, and played a competitive game throughout. In Game Seven, they fell behind early and came back to win, getting through difficult situations late to lock it up. Any argument for game-to-game momentum, the idea that the outcome yesterday carries through to tomorrow, is hard to make in the face of how the Rays played this weekend.

The post facto nature of these arguments will be in play over the next few days. You can expect the results of Game One of the World Series to be framed in two ways: if the Phillies win, the Rays will have been worn out by their emotional seven-game ALCS victory; if they lose, it will be because the seven-day layoff between games made them rusty.

Baseball's harder than that. Even if David Price makes it look easy.

* Maybe it was the wrist. If you're a Sox fan or executive, you hope it was the wrist. But the way in which Garza put Ortiz away in the third and sixth had to be a little troubling. Ortiz not only couldn't catch up with Garza's fastball, but he was going out of his zone to try and catch it. The 3-2 pitch on which Ortiz struck out in the sixth… I don't think he offers at that ball a year ago. At $12.5 million a year for the next two seasons, with no ability to play the field (which complicates roster management), Ortiz has to be one of the better hitters in the game or he's a liability.

* Longoria has tremendous raw talent and his defensive numbers this year were off the charts. Twice in three games, however, he showed a tendency to lose his mechanics on throws, opening up his body and drifting towards the plate when charging instead of planting his leg and getting off a good throw. Thursday's error proved costly, and while last night he wasn't charged with one, the same problem was evident on a fourth-inning grounder off the bat of Kevin Youkilis. It's just something to watch.

* Price was the story in the late innings, and I don't want to take away from that. However, you can't write about this game and not at least acknowledge that the decision pitches to Drew and Kotsay were both outside. Not on the black or the corner or any place else; they were outside. Until and unless we get a strike zone that is 17 inches wide all the time, shaped like a rectangle all the time, and located in the same place all the time, baseball will always be a little less than it should be.

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8262

Please?

[Stax]

Missed your request there, sorry.

PHILADELPHIA—Detailed performance analysis reveals that Ryan Howard is not quite the top-tier player that the home run and RBI columns on the stat sheet make him out to be. The Phillies first baseman's WARP3, an indicator of his overall value, was 5.4 in the regular season, barely half of the 10.6 that Phillies second baseman Chase Utley produced. Howard also hit just .224/.294/.451 in 265 plate appearances against left-handers, and he was brutal in the field with -14 FRAA. Yet he is generally considered inside the clubhouse as the Phillies' most valuable player, and if anyone outpolls Cardinals first baseman Albert Pujols in this year's National League MVP voting, it will likely be Howard based on his major league-leading 48 home runs and 146 RBI.

This is not to say that Howard is without value to the Phillies; he can produce multiple runs with one swing of the bat, and his booming homers from the cleanup spot seem to provide a psychological boost to his teammates. He had gone nearly a month without a home run, including the Phillies' four-game victory over the Brewers in the NLDS and their five-game triumph over the Dodgers in the NLCS, but he has again found his power stroke, and the Phillies do not think it is happenstance that it coincides with their being one victory away from wrapping up the series in Game Five tonight at Citizens Bank Park.

The Phillies will attempt to end the Rays' rags-to-riches story and win just their second World Series title in the franchise's 126-year history tonight when they send ace Cole Hamels to the mound against fellow left-hander Scott Kazmir. It would be the Phillies' first since 1980, and the first for a major Philadelphia professional sports team (sorry Jon Bon Jovi, but your Soul's ArenaBowl championship doesn't count for these purposes) since the 76ers polished off the Los Angeles Lakers in the 1982-83 NBA Finals.

Howard homered twice and drove in five runs Sunday night in Game Four at Citizens Bank Park, giving him three long balls in two days and sparking the Phillies to a 10-2 rout of the Rays and a 3-1 series lead. "In baseball, there's a difference between great hitters and real, real great hitters, and Ryan Howard is a real, real great hitter," Phillies manager Charlie Manuel said. "I look at Ryan and he's a carrier, which is one of my favorite statements. A carrier is somebody who can take your team, get the big hits, knock in runs, and put you on his back and carry you. You can say anything you want, but his numbers sit there for you to look at. He's a guy that might strike out four times in a row, but he's always dangerous. It might be that one pitch that he follows well and gets a good pass at it and when it gets up in the air, it comes down behind the fence. I always say that a home run is nothing more than a well-hit fly ball that comes down behind the fence. That's your greatest hit in baseball. You come back to the dugout, sit down, and work on getting another one. Howard does a pretty good job [at] those things."

Howard hit his first home run of October after 51 post-season plate appearances without one when he connected on the second of back-to-back shots with Utley in the sixth inning of Game Three on Saturday night off of Matt Garza. That helped spark the Phillies to a 5-4 victory, but it was just a warm-up for Game Four. Howard hit an opposite-field three-run homer to left in the fourth inning off of losing starter Andy Sonnanstine to push the Phillies' lead to 5-1. Howard then pulled a two-run home run into the right-field seats off of left-hander Trever Miller to cap a four-run eighth that also included a two-run blast by Jayson Werth and turned the game into a 10-2 rout. "To be able to have two home runs in the World Series, that's the kind of stuff you dream of when you're a teenager," Howard said. "Getting to the World Series, obviously you want to win, but being able to do something like that to help my team win is a great feeling. I've just been kind of hanging with it the whole postseason, working on getting into a groove at the plate and taking it one day at a time."

Rays manager Joe Maddon still felt that his team would be hard-pressed to keep Howard down for the entire series. "Guys like that, those big power guys, when they hit them, they normally come in bunches," Maddon said. "They get the feel working, and all of a sudden every ball looks big and it's in the right spot. We don't take anybody lightly. He's very good, and we have not been pitching around anybody to get to him. You never take people as good as Ryan Howard for granted."

While Howard had a span of 53 plate appearances without a home run during the regular season from May 30 to June 12, it was difficult to foresee this October power outage. Howard had an outstanding September, hitting .352/.422/.852 with 11 home runs in 102 plate appearances as the Phillies overtook the Mets in the season's final month for a second straight season to win the NL East. Howard admitted that his October struggles got to him at times, but his track record of home-run hitting gave him confidence that he would regain his power strike. "I'm mortal," Howard said. "I bleed, just like everybody else bleeds, but it's just one of those things. Everybody goes through hot streaks and cool streaks, and it's just making the adjustments quick. Sometimes it takes a little bit longer, but as long as you get back at the right time and get things going, that's what matters."

Howard took extra batting practice during the offday Friday, and Manuel believes that enabled Howard to find a comfort level. "He's been patient these last two games and he's staying on the ball," Manuel said. "He's relaxed and seeing the ball better because he's slowed down and started concentrating on following the ball, and looking for pitches to hit instead of guessing. He's looking good. He's got his timing. His weight shift and balance are good."

Howard certainly has his groove back at the perfect time, and says that the Phillies continuing to win while he wasn't hitting home runs allowed him to keep his spirits up. "When you get to the playoffs, it's not about individual goals or individual stats or stuff like that," Howard said. "It's a team effort, and the automatic thing is you're trying to win a championship. We had different guys stepping up on different nights. I don't care if I had hit a home run the entire time. I don't care if I went 0-for-4 or oh-fer the entire postseason, you want that ring."

Howard and his teammates are closer to being sized for their championship rings. Part of the reason for that is a home run from someone on the opposite end of the spectrum from Howard. Winning pitcher Joe Blanton hit the first home run of his major league career in the fifth inning, a solo shot to left field off of Edwin Jackson that extended the Phillies' lead to 6-2. Blanton said it was his first home run since his senior year of high school in Franklin, Kentucky, in 1999. He has gone 2-for-26 (.077) with 15 strikeouts in the regular season, and was 0-for-7 with six strikeouts in the postseason before hitting his home run. "I just close my eyes and swing hard in case I make contact," Blanton said when asked about his hitting philosophy, before kidding that he didn't open his eyes after the home run until he stepped back up on the mound for the start of the sixth inning.

Blanton did pretty well on the pitching end as well, allowing two runs and four hits in six innings, with two walks and seven strikeouts. He is 2-0 with a 3.18 ERA in three post-season starts, and unbeaten in 13 starts, notching six wins, since being acquired from the Athletics on July 17 in a trade for three prospects. Chad Durbin, Scott Eyre, Ryan Madson, and J.C. Romero combined for three shutout relief innings to finish the five-hitter. "We've put ourselves in good position, but I'll tell our guys the same thing I've been telling them for about seven months, and that's we're going to play [Game Five] to win just like we have all year," Manuel said. "We take it one day at a time. I've been saying that for so long, I'm sure people around here are tired of hearing it."

Maddon, meanwhile, does not plan to give any big pre-game speeches tonight, though the Rays' dream of becoming the first team in history to go from having the worst record in the major leagues one season to a World Series title the next is looking increasingly out of reach. "You can't take it like you have to win three games in a row," Maddon said. "The mantra has been one game at a time, and I want to approach it that way, just like we have the whole season. Right now, I would be happy with three one-game winning streaks."

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8287

Much thanks in advance.

[Stax]

Five-Star Prospects
1. Jason Heyward, OF
2. Tommy Hanson, RHP
Four-Star Prospects
3. Jordan Schafer, CF
4. Gorkys Hernandez, CF
5. Freddie Freeman, 1B
Three-Star Prospects
6. Julio Teheran, RHP
7. Cole Rohrbough, LHP
8. Tyler Flowers, C
9. Randall Delgado, RHP
10. Brandon Hicks, SS
Two-Star Prospects
11. Kris Medlen, RHP

Just Missed: John Gilmore, 3B; Craig Kimbrell, RHP; Jeff Locke, LHP

Ranking Challenges: There was a lot of flip-flopping from top to bottom during the ranking process. I went back and forth on number one between Heyward and Hanson, but ultimately Heyward's advantage as far as his ceiling outweighed Hanson's edge in certainty. Schafer was always number three, but I also went back and forth with the Hernandez and Freeman spots. Teheran jumped all over the place between sixth and 10th before a discussion with a scout provided some clarity, and having two scouts both express strong concerns about Flowers' defense dropped him a bit at the end. As was the case with Arizona, there were many possibilities for the 11th spot, before finally settling on Medlen.

1. Jason Heyward, OF
DOB: 8/9/89
Height/Weight: 6-4/220
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2007, Henry County HS (GA)
2008 Stats: .323/.388/.483, .262 EqA at Low-A (120 G); .182/.240/.273, .156 EqA at High-A (7 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 2

Year in Review: This former first-round pick more than lived up to expectations in his first full season.
The Good: The most notable thing about Heyward is that he's a great player now who still has incredible room for growth. He's a massive, intimidating presence at the plate who has a very good feel for the strike zone, and he makes consistent hard contact. Despite hitting just 11 home runs in 2008, he still projects for plus power down the road due to his size and raw strength. He's a good outfielder with a plus arm, and Braves officials rave about his work ethic.
The Bad: Heyward's power is still in the raw category, and he'll need to develop some life in his swing. Some scouts would also like to see him become less contact-conscious and more focused on power. He's an average-rated runner now, but that will likely decrease over the next few years as his immense frame fills out.
Fun Fact: If you're wondering what Heyward's hometown looks like, just watch the original Smokey and The Bandit, as much of it was filmed in McDonough, Georgia.
Perfect World Projection: He should be a run-producing impact hitter who bats third for a championship-level team
Glass Half Empty: The power may never explode, and he could end up being a good everyday player, as opposed to a great one.
Path To The Big Leagues: Heyward is the kind of prospect that take any opportunity he gets, and the Braves certainly need some help in the outfield. That said, he's still two or three years away.
Timetable: Heyward will take the next step by beginning the year at High-A Myrtle Beach. The goal is to have him ready for the upper levels the following year, and he has an outside chance of tasting the big leagues before his 21st birthday.

2. Tommy Hanson, RHP
DOB: 8/28/86
Height/Weight: 6-6/210
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 22nd round, 2005, Riverside Community College
2008 Stats: 0.90 ERA at High-A (40-15-11-49), 2.68 DERA; 3.03 at Double-A (98-70-41-114), 4.31 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 8

Year in Review: One of the best pitchers in the minors throughout the year, Hanson struck out 13 of 15 batters in his season debut, tossed a 14-strikeout no-hitter for Double-A Mississippi in June, and has been the most dominant arm in the Arizona Fall League, allowing four hits over 13 2/3 shutout innings with 19 strikeouts in his first four appearances for Mesa.
The Good: Some scouts believe that Hanson could get big-league hitters out right now, as he's one of the rare prospects in the game with four plus pitches. His fastball is parked at 91-93 mph but can touch 95-96 when he rears backs for a little extra. His best pitches are his breaking offerings; he throws an over-the-top hard-dropping curve as well as a sharp slider with plenty of tilt, while adding a deceptive changeup against lefties. He's a big-bodied starter who the Braves had no problem moving to a higher pitch count when he was pitching well.
The Bad: Some wonder if Hanson is not quite as good as his numbers, as most of his strikeouts come on his secondary offerings as opposed to the fastball, and there is some effort in his delivery. While his control is solid, his command can falter at times, and he has a tendency to elevate his pitches.
Fun Fact: During his first four Arizona Fall League appearances, right-handed batters facing Hanson went 2-for-32 with 16 strikeouts.
Perfect World Projection: A consistent 16-18 game winner in the big leagues as a number one or two starter.
Glass Half Empty: As one scout puts it, "He's good, but not jaw dropping," and his dependency on the secondary pitches could mean he's more of a third starter.
Path To The Big Leagues: With an old rotation in need of rebuilding, nothing is blocking Hanson's way to Atlanta.
Timetable: Some are surprised that Hanson hasn't already seen the majors, and scouts that have seen him in Arizona think he's ready. He'll be given a shot to earn a big-league job in spring training, but the Braves might be more comfortable giving a handful of Triple-A starts first.

3. Jordan Schafer, CF
DOB: 9/4/86
Height/Weight: 6-1/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 3rd round, 2005, Winter Haven HS (FL)
2008 Stats: .269/.378/.471, .263 EqA at Double-A (84 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 1

Year in Review: Last year's breakout performer missed two months early in the season serving a 50-game suspension for some kind of involvement with HGH—the facts are still not clear. He got off to a slow start due to rust and plenty of distractions, but found a groove in the second half, batting .303/.387/.526.
The Good: Schafer's tools rate as average or above across the board. He's a patient hitter with a quick, quiet swing and at least average power. He's a 60 runner and an even better center fielder because of his outstanding instincts, with one scout adding, "I don't think I ever saw him break wrong on a ball." His arm is another weapon due to both its strength and accuracy.
The Bad: Schafer struggled against left-handers in 2008, who found success both in busting him inside and getting him to chase good breaking balls. The suspension seemed to hang over his head much of the year; he was clearly pressing at times, and his body language left many wondering if he was having any fun out there.
Fun Fact: While 12 players have been drafted out of Winter Haven High School, Schafer is aiming to become the first to reach the big leagues.
Perfect World Projection: An everyday star-level center fielder who annually hits .300 with 20/20 power/speed numbers.
Glass Half Empty: He turns out to be a one-sided star in desperate need of a platoon partner, a la Ray Lankford.
Path To The Big Leagues: Gregor Blanco does not provide a significant roadblock.
Timetable: The Braves still have the utmost confidence in Schafer, and while they do not go into detail, they have no long-term concerns about his suspension. Schafer is their center fielder of the future, and there's an outside chance that the future could begin in April.

4. Gorkys Hernandez, CF
DOB: 9/7/87
Height/Weight: 6-0/175
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Venezuela, 2005 (DET)
2008 Stats: .264/.348/.387, .221 EqA at High-A (100 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 5

Year in Review: Acquired from Detroit in the Edgar Renteria deal, Hernandez got off to a blazing start at High-A Myrtle Beach, but struggled with hamstring issues during the second half of the season.
The Good: When his legs are 100 percent, Hernandez has impact speed, with one scout stating that, "any ground ball off his bat turns into an interesting experience." He showed a much improved approach at the plate this year, and nails line drives all over the field. He always hustles—breaking up double plays and taking extra bases—and brings an enormous amount of energy to the field. Beyond his speed, he's also an excellent defensive outfielder with a plus arm.
The Bad: Hernandez has little pop or much projection for any, as his skinny lower half is designed far more for speed than power. As a player whose value depends on speed, defense, and getting on base, he could still use another step forward in his plate discipline.
Fun Fact: Hernandez is named after Maxim Gorky, the Russian writer who was critical of both the czars and the Bolsheviks during the Russian Revolution, and who was ultimately brought back to Russia in the 1930s as a propaganda tool for the dictator Joseph Stalin, who many feel was responsible for Gorky's untimely death in 1938.
Perfect World Projection: He's an above-average center fielder who hits .280-.300 with 10 home runs and 40 stolen bases on a yearly basis.
Glass Half Empty: He may top out as more of a second-division starter, or a fourth outfielder on a good team.
Path To The Big Leagues: While Jordan Schafer has dibs on a the center-field job, Hernandez certainly has the ability to claim a starting job of his own.
Timetable: A year behind Schafer developmentally, Hernandez will face his big test in Double-A in 2009, and the Braves think that if he's healthy he could be primed for a breakout.

5. Freddie Freeman, 1B
DOB: 9/12/89
Height/Weight: 6-5/220
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 2nd round, 2007, El Modena HS (CA)
2008 Stats: .316/.378/.521, .261 EqA at Low-A (130 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: This second-round pick from 2007 surprised everyone by putting together one of the Sally League's best seasons in a circuit that was loaded with prospects.
The Good: Freeman displays both present ability and tremendous potential offensively. His swing has both speed and leverage, and it's rare to find a player so young with both power and his kind of feel for contact, making it easy to project him as a player who hits tons of home runs while maintaining a high batting average. He's a surprisingly good defender as well, with soft hands, good footwork, and a great arm.
The Bad: Freeman runs about as well as you'd expect for a 6-foot-5, 220-pound first baseman. With his size and youth, there are concerns that he'll end up as a massive, plodding type. He can be overly aggressive early in the count and put himself in bad hitting situations, especially against left-handers.
Fun Fact: El Modena High School also produced Heroes star Milo Ventimiglia.
Perfect World Projection: He becomes a classic, middle-of-the-order run-producing first baseman.
Glass Half Empty: Too much size slows down his swing, and he ends up more of a one-dimensional masher.
Path To The Big Leagues: The Braves acquired Casey Kotchman in the Mark Teixeira deal, but he did little to endear himself to the organization with a .237/.331/.316 line in 43 games. Freeman is the future, but he's a long way from being ready.
Timetable: Freeman will begin the year in the tough offensive environment of High-A Myrtle Beach.

6. Julio Teheran
DOB: 1/27/91
Height/Weight: 6-2/150
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Colombia, 2007
2008 Stats: 2.53 ERA at Rookie-level (15-18-4-17)
Last Year's Ranking: 7

Year in Review: This 17-year-old's much anticipated debut was hampered by shoulder soreness, but he nonetheless made a strong impression on those that saw him.
The Good: Because of his youth and arm strength, Teheran's ceiling surpasses that of any pitching prospect in the system. His fastball sits effortlessly at 92-95 mph, he hit 97 on the gun on numerous occasions, and the pitch has nice late life. He also throws a hard, breaking curve and shows some feel for a changeup. He throws all of his pitches for strikes and works aggressively.
The Bad: Teheran is still learning how to pitch, and needs to improve his approach. He depends solely on trying to blow batters away, and needs to learn how to better attack hitters by working the count and using his secondary offerings as chase pitches. He became easily flustered during his brief time at Danville when he felt squeezed by umpires or his defense made bad plays behind him. While he's clean mechanically, his lanky, downright skinny frame will need to fill out.
Fun Fact: Going into 2009, Emiliano Fruto is the only Columbian-born pitcher to ever reach the majors, and is therefore also the nation's all-time leader with two wins and 34 strikeouts.
Perfect World Projection: Teheran's ultimate projection is through the roof.
Glass Half Empty: He's just 17, still has a long way to go, and already has had some shoulder issues. There is too much that can go wrong to guarantee anything. If his frame and approach don't change, he'll be better suited for relief.
Path To The Big Leagues: There's nothing to worry about yet; we're talking about a guy who, even with the most aggressive of timetables, wouldn't be in the big leagues until late 2011.
Timetable: Most inside the Braves organization feel that Teheran is ready for a full-season assignment, but his health and workload with be closely monitored at Low-A Rome.

7. Cole Rohrbough, LHP
DOB: 5/23/87
Height/Weight: 6-3/205
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 22nd Round, 2006, Western Nevada Community College
2008 Stats: 4.94 ERA at Low-A (58.1-55-31-76), 8.70 DERA; 3.41 at High-A (31.2-27-8-28), 6.90 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 9

Year in Review: A high-ceiling left-hander who struggled early in the year due to a number of minor but persistent injuries, he showed the kind of stuff late in the year to retain his prospect status.
The Good: It's hard not to get excited about Rohrbough's combination of size, athleticism, and power stuff from the left side. He sits at 90-93 mph with a boring, heavy fastball, but his best pitch is a hard curve that is equally effective whether he drops it into the strike zone or buries it in the dirt. He's aggressive, likes pitching inside, and has a good feel for setting up hitters.
The Bad: While Rohrbough flashes a good changeup at times, he can also lose the feel for it in either direction—either overthrowing the pitch or tipping it off with slow arm action. He can rush his delivery and get his arm ahead of his leg drive, which leads to an inconsistent release point and control issues.
Fun Fact: Only eight players have ever been selected out of Western Nevada Community College, and five of those have been selected by the Braves in the last three years.
Perfect World Projection: A solid number-three starter with some star potential.
Glass Half Empty: It's possible that the changeup doesn't come around and some minor shoulder issues become a bigger issue, relegating him to the bullpen.
Path To The Big Leagues: It's a good time to be a starter in the Braves system, although Rohrbough is probably at least two years away.
Timetable: Rohrbough will return to High-A Myrtle Beach this year, but the Braves feel he could be ready for Double-A by midseason if he continues to progress.

8. Tyler Flowers, C
DOB: 1/24/86
Height/Weight: 6-4/245
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 33rd round, 2005, Chipola Junior College (FL)
2008 Stats: .288/.427/.494, .271 EqA at High-A (122 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: Among the many Braves draft-and-follow prospects, Flowers broke out by finishing in the Carolina League's top five in both on-base percentage and slugging, while placing second overall in all of the minors with 98 walks.
The Good: As a massive backstop with power and patience, one scout dubbed Flowers, "almost Matt Wieters light... or I guess heavy." He has a highly-advanced approach at the plate and smokes balls in the zone to both gaps. He makes excellent in-game adjustments to pitching styles and is equally effective against both left- and right-handed pitchers. He has good hands behind the plate.
The Bad: Flowers' size is an issue, as his body borders on soft. He's not athletic behind the plate, and his below-average arm is brought down even more by his size, resulting in a slow release. That leaves some wondering if he can stay behind the plate in the long term, and projections of a player's value change drastically when one moves him from catcher to first base, which would be the only other option for Flowers.
Fun Fact: When batting with the bases loaded in 2008, Flowers went 5-for-13 with three doubles, two grand slams, and four walks.
Perfect World Projection: He could end up as an offense-first catcher who provides enough run production to make up for his poor defense.
Glass Half Empty: The defensive issues are too much to overcome, leaving him as a big bat without a real home, a la Craig Wilson.
Path To The Big Leagues: With Brian McCann entrenched behind the plate, there's no need to rush Flowers, and he may be one of the more obvious trade chips for the team.
Timetable: Flowers moves up the Double-A in 2009, in what may end up being a showcase season.

9. Randall Delgado, RHP
DOB: 2/9/90
Height/Weight: 6-3/165
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Panama, 2006
2008 Stats: 3.13 ERA at Rookie-level (69-63-30-81)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: Yet another teenage arm from a non-traditional Latin American country, Delgado showed plenty of promise while finishing second in the Appalachian League in strikeouts.
The Good: For many scouts and Braves officials, Delgado rates only a tick behind Teheran in the system in terms of ultimate ceiling. He effortlessly pops 92-95 on the gun with his two-seam fastball which features natural sinking action, and he already has a plus curveball, which comes off of his hand with consistent heavy spin. He's long and loose with an all arms-and-legs delivery that makes the ball hard to pick up.
The Bad: Delgado's mechanics are smooth but a bit complicated, and he has trouble consistently throwing the ball for strikes. When he gets behind in the count he has a tendency to take a bit off of his pitches in order to aim them. His changeup is no more than rudimentary.
Fun Fact: Delgado had a 1.93 ERA in the first three innings of his games in 2008, but a 5.00 mark thereafter.
Perfect World Projection: Most project physical growth in Delgado, which could lead to him developing into an elite arm.
Glass Half Empty: There are a few of these guys in every system, and trying to figure out which ones get there can be something of a dart-throwing contest.
Path To The Big Leagues: Right now, Delgado has no more than a path to a full-season league.
Timetable: Depending on how cautious the Braves decide to be with his workload, Delgado will either join Teheran at Rome, or go back to the Appy League after honing his stuff in extended spring training.

10. Brandon Hicks, SS
DOB: 9/14/85
Height/Weight: 6-2/200
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 3rd round, 2007, Texas A&M
2008 Stats: .234/.335/.480, .241 EqA at High-A (93 G); .241/.333/.389, .233 EqA at Double-A (16 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: This polished college product had a strange season at High-A, delivering a low batting average but plenty of secondary skills to make up for it, including 19 home runs in 93 games.
The Good: Tools-wise, Hicks fits the mold of the new breed of big, athletic shortstops. His power is very real, and if anything it was hampered by playing at Myrtle Beach, as he smacked 13 of his 19 home runs in just 53 road games. He works the count well and has a good feel for the strike zone. Defensively, he's above average in every way, with good range to both sides and a strong, accurate arm.
The Bad: Hicks will never be one who hits for average; his swing has a mechanical hitch and a profound uppercut, which certainly helps with the power but will always lead to too many strikeouts. He can overwork the count in some situations and get himself behind, often passing on hittable pitches while waiting for the perfect one.
Fun Fact: While the Aggies have an outstanding baseball program, the only drafted alum with more than 17 career home runs is Chuck Knoblauch (98).
Perfect World Projection: He develops into an everyday big-league shortstop with plus defense and 20-plus home runs.
Glass Half Empty: Is he the next Jose Hernandez?
Path To The Big Leagues: While Yunel Escobar has a firm hold on the Atlanta shortstop job, the rest of the Braves' infield is in a state of flux.
Timetable: Hicks will begin the year at Double-A Mississippi. If scouts made his PECOTA card, it would have high breakout and collapse rates.

11. Kris Medlen, RHP
DOB: 10/7/85
Height/Weight: 5-10/175
Bats/Throws: S/R
Drafted/Signed: 10th round, 2006, Santa Ana College
2008 Stats: 3.52 at Double-A (120.1-121-27-120), 4.17 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: The former system sleeper is now a legitimate prospect after proving himself as both a starter and reliever at Double-A.
The Good: Medlen pounds the strike zone with an effective three-pitch mix. His fastball is above average at 90-92 mph and can touch 94, and he locates it extremely well. His best pitch is a hard-breaking overhand curve, and he also mixes in a solid changeup. He's a fantastic athlete who can field his position, has an excellent pickoff move, and went 8-for-26 at the plate this year with two doubles, a triple, and a home run.
The Bad: It is hard to get past Medlen's size, as he's both short and a bit frail. That frame, combined with a delivery that requires significant effort, leaves some to wonder if he could hold up for 30-plus big-league starts each year. His fastball can be a little too true at times.
Fun Fact: Three years prior to signing with the Braves, Medlen was a 37th-round pick by the Rays out of Gahr High School, the school that produced big leaguers Shane Mack and Brett Barberie, as well as Washington Redskins coach (and former NFL quarterback) Jim Zorn.
Perfect World Projection: He becomes a decent back-end starter or a valuable swingman.
Glass Half Empty: If he can't hack starting, he doesn't have the stuff for late-inning relief work, so he's no more than a middle reliever.
Path To The Big Leagues: As a "fill-in-the-blank" type of pitcher who can be dropped into any role, there is nothing blocking a player like Medlen.
Timetable: He'll begin the year with the Braves' Triple-A team that has moved to suburban Gwinnett, and he should get the call for a short drive to Atlanta at some point in the year.

The Sleeper: Acquired from the Red Sox for Mark Kotsay, Luis Sumoza is a small but athletic outfielder who murders lefties, runs well, and has above-average raw power.

Top 10 Talents 25 And Under (as of Opening Day 2009)

1. Brian McCann, C
2. Jason Heyward, OF
3. Tommy Hanson, RHP
4. Jair Jurrjens, RHP
5. Jordan Schafer, CF
6. Gorkys Hernandez, CF
7. Freddie Freeman, 1B
8. Jeff Francoeur, RF
9. Julio Teheran, RHP
10. Cole Rohrbough, LHP

The Braves have produced their share of young talent of late, but much of it has been of the fifth starter or swing-man type on the mound (Jo-Jo Reyes, Charlie Morton), and bench players in the field (Gregor Blanco, Martin Prado). McCann is a genuine star, but I'm not yet sold on Jurrjens, who many believe performed a little over his head in 2008—that could be the peak performance to expect from him—and will settle as a dependable middle-rotation starter. As far as Jeff Francoeur goes, I'm honestly not sure what to expect. I can't say I'd be shocked if he drove in 100 runs next year, nor would I be if he merely turned out to be this decade's Ben Grieve.

Summary: The Braves have a solid core of young talent, but for the most part it's not going to help this team get any better in 2009. The Braves are a solid long-term play, but a trade of top prospects for Jake Peavy would be a mistake, simply guaranteeing a solid run at mediocrity, as opposed to having the patience to wait out a possible return to National League East glory at the beginning of the next decade.

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8325

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8323

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8335

Much thanks.

[Stax]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8325

Player Profile
Aubrey Huff

by Marc Normandin and Eric Seidman

Saying that Aubrey Huff's performance this season was surprising is a significant understatement; he outperformed all of his recent campaigns by a country mile, and wound up looking like the Huff who was once considered to be the greatest Devil Ray ever in their (short) history. Since he has performed at this level in the past, the question we will look at today is whether or not he will be able to replicate this production in the future.

Aubrey Lewis Huff was selected by the Devil Rays in the fifth round of the 1998 amateur draft out of the University of Miami, where he had been a first-team All-American. He was a third baseman at the time, and after signing quickly was sent to the Sally League for his professional debut. He put together an impressive line for a player selected 162nd overall, hitting .321/.371/.547 over 265 at-bats, with 33 extra-base hits and 24 walks against 40 strikeouts. While he was already 21 years old, it was expected that he'd need additional seasoning before the Devil Rays could treat Huff's performance was a realistic indicator of what they could expect from him going forward.

They wasted no time, skipping over High-A entirely and sending him directly to Double-A. Huff would put in a full season at Orlando during his first full year in the minors, and his .301/.385/.530 line with 65 extra-base hits, 64 walks, and 77 punchouts over 491 at-bats did much to ease any doubts about his impressive debut. He was suddenly on the prospect radar, with Baseball America ranking Huff the 98th-best prospect in the majors, and third-best with the Devil Rays organization. Baseball Prospectus 2000 liked him even more than they had after his first year:

Last year, after his outstanding half-season debut with Charleston, we said to check back to see if it was for real. It was. Aggressively pushed up two levels to Double-A, Huff improved his walk rate while maintaining his 900 OPS against much tougher competition. According to Clay Davenport's rating system, which combines hitting, fielding and age, Huff was the best player in the Southern League. His defense at the hot corner is said to be inconsistent, but you wouldn't guess it from his numbers. His poor Arizona Fall League stint and the Castilla pickup will mean Huff will spend 2000 at Triple-A.

Huff would have little trouble after arriving in Triple-A, and he continued to hit at the same level he had during his first two seasons. The 23-year-old smacked the ball around at a .316/.394/.566 clip over 408 at-bats, hitting 20 home runs (which good for the highest per-at-bat homer rate of his professional career) before earning a promotion to Tampa Bay. His performance there in 122 at-bats was nowhere near as stunning as his minor league numbers, but he did do a very solid job for a first-timer, hitting .287/.318/.443.

Although he dropped to fourth in the Devil Rays' organizational rankings, he jumped to 43rd in Baseball America's overall rankings:

Huff's calling card is his disciplined ability to swing the bat. Immensely confident at the plate, he can drive the ball to all fields with his quick swing. He isn't vulnerable against left-handers, though he shows more power against righties. Though he has shown improvement over the past two years with the glove, Huff needs to continue polishing his abilities at third base… The Devil Rays are satisfied that Huff is ready to compete in the major leagues.

He would begin the season in Triple-A despite his readiness, but he was up in the bigs within two weeks. His first full season in the majors did not go nearly as well as expected, with Huff hitting only .248/.288/.372, with nearly three times as many strikeouts as walks and just eight home runs. He brought his walk rate up slightly, from 3.9 to 5.3 percent, but his strikeout rate rose by more than that, and there was a dip in his already lacking power output.

Baseball Prospectus 2002 made note of manager Hal McRae's preference for poor options in his lineup:

Huff's defense at third base was so poor that he essentially lost his job late in the year to no-hit, good-field Jared Sandberg. We shouldn't be all that surprised: Hal McRae displayed a strong preference for gloves over bats when he managed the Royals. The Fred McGriff deal allowed Steve Cox to move back to first base and might free up the DH role for Huff if the D-Rays can get out from under Greg Vaughn's contract. Huff will need to get back to hitting the way he did in 2000.

With Huff struggling to hit, he was sent back to Durham to begin the 2002 season to see if he could straighten out his swing. He did manage to improve a bit, hitting .325/.386/.468 over 126 at-bats, and he was back in the major league lineup on May 28. The Huff that Baseball America and Baseball Prospectus thought so highly of finally emerged, with the 25-year-old hitting .313/.364/.520 the rest of the way.

He returned to the kind of disciplined approach that had brought him his success in the first place, increasing his walk rate to 7.5 percent while cutting his strikeouts down from 17.5 to 12.1 percent. This more than doubled his BB/K ratio, and also allowed him to see better pitchers to drive, increasing his ISO by 83 points as well. He also managed to dramatically improve against left-handed pitchers, jumping his production up from a paltry .172/.209/.241 in 2001 to .307/.362/.504.

Huff would then rattle off two more campaigns that made him the most productive player on the Devil Rays; hitting .311/.367/.555 in 2003, and .297/.360/.493 in 2004; in both of these years, he kept his BB/K rate near that of his breakout 2003 campaign, even bumping his walk rate up during '04. His power would peak in 2003 with a .244 ISO, a figure he would not approach again until this year, when he surpassed it by three points, and it would also be his last season with a strikeout rate in the 12 percent range.

The wheels began to come off for Huff in 2005, as his strikeout rate climbed to 15.3 percent, while his BABIP would fall below the league average, down to .275. The combination of these two factors would cause Huff to hit just .261/.321/.428, his worst production since his rookie campaign in 2001. The struggles against left-handers came back to haunt him, as he hit just .256/.300/.401 against them, dragging down his more playable numbers (.264/.332/.443) against right-handers. Thanks to the dip in BABIP—caused in part by an abnormal drop in his line-drive rate—Huff was a solid bet to bounce back. Baseball Prospectus 2006 made note of this, the most important aspect of the comment being this tidbit about Huff's trade value:

Huff has been a prime trade target from the moment he established himself, but the Rays have already waited too long to pull the trigger. In what should have been one of his peak seasons, Huff turned in his worst performance since his rookie year. The Rays have done themselves, and Huff, a disservice by dragging him all over the field.

The Devil Rays would eventually send Huff packing to Houston during the 2006 campaign, where he would improve on his .261/.321/.428 line for Tampa Bay by hitting .250/.341/.478 for the Astros. Although he failed to hit productively against southpaws once again (.233/.303/.383), he did bring up his production against righties, hitting a convincing .278/.358/.500 in 334 at-bats. Overall, Huff was, as Baseball Prospectus 2007 succinctly put it, "merely okay." He signed with Baltimore for three years, where he fit into the picture as a corner bat capable of crushing right-handed pitching.

Huff played essentially every day, collecting 603 plate appearances during his first year in Baltimore, but hitting just .280/.337/.442 with a .162 ISO. His lefty/righty split was, for the first time in a few years, not an issue, as Huff hit .305/.359/.420 against lefties and .272/.330/.449 against righties. Instead, Huff was experiencing a power outage, with a HR/FB rate that was below 10 percent for the first time in his career.

PECOTA called for more of the same from Huff as he entered his age-31 campaign, with a weighted mean projection of .269/.333/.423, and a 90th-percentile forecast of .289/.354/.466. He was able to outperform both of those thanks to the return of his power—his HR/FB jumped to 14.9, a significant increase from his disappointing 8.5 percent in 2007—thanks to an increase in liners and fly balls, and a significant dip in his ground-ball rate. It fell enough that Huff moved away from being an average G/F hitter, and was instead leaning more towards the fly-ball extreme.

Most of this production came against right-handers, with Huff destroying them at a .321/.382/.607 pace. He hit around the same as he had the year before versus left-handers, but with a bit more power, putting together a line of .270/.313/.439. Chances are good that Huff will not be able to duplicate those high averages against right-handers every season from here on out—he's going to be 32 years old next year, after all, and has never had success at that level against them in the past—but at the very least, the O's should have themselves a productive trade chip that they can move before the deadline while they rebuild the foundations of their organization. Unlike the Devil Rays of old, maybe the Orioles will be able to deal him before the shine comes off.—Marc Normandin

Performance Evaluation

In a season with several great performances that essentially came out of nowhere, very few were as impressive as Aubrey Huff's. The Silver Slugger-winning designated hitter of the Orioles put together a 55.6 VORP, good for seventh in the junior circuit, and identical to, or within striking distance of better known players like Josh Hamilton, Milton Bradley, Joe Mauer, and Dustin Pedroia. Pedroia and Mauer were the top two vote-getters for the AL MVP award, and Hamilton and Bradley received plenty of air time. In addition, Huff's MLV of 38.2 was sixth best in the AL, right on par with Carlos Quentin's, and ahead of both Hamilton and Mauer. Despite these numbers, Huff went largely unnoticed this past season, a difficult task for someone with 32 home runs and 48 doubles.

From 2007 to 2008, Huff turned a .280/.337/.442 line into .304/.360/.552. How did this happen? Well, interestingly enough, the usual statistical subjects responsible for performance shifts were virtually identical over these two seasons. Huff's BABIP barely increased, from .310 to .314, and his walk rate stayed at eight percent. His rate of strikeouts decreased from 15.8 to 14.9 percent, an improvement, but not one so overly significant as to stake claim as the primary contributor to his turnaround. One shift that did boost his performance, however, is his ISO, which jumped from .162 to .247, the highest such mark of his career, and the first time it's been above .240 since 2003. Back during that season, Huff produced numbers eerily similar to those from this past campaign.

In 2003, Huff hit .311/.367/.555, right in line with the .304/.360/.552 from 2008. He hit 34 home runs and 47 doubles then, compared to the 32 home runs and 48 doubles he hit in 2008. He drew 53 walks in both seasons, posting identical .314 BABIP marks as well, with ISO rates of .244 and .247. In 2007, Huff's percentage breakdown of line drives, ground balls, and fly balls was 16.1/46.0/37.9. Last year, he cut down on grounders and replaced them with line drives and fly balls, aiding in his increase in home runs from 15 to 32. Likewise, his HR/FB played a large part in this, as the rate fell to 8.5 percent in 2007 after historically being between 12-15 percent. Huff increased that to 14.9 percent in 2008, so not only did he hit a higher percentage of fly balls, but more of them left the yard—a definite formula for successful power hitting. These home runs were not the byproduct of a favorable home park, as was the case with last week's profile subject Carlos Quentin, as six of Huff's home runs were no-doubters via HitTracker, while another 12 cleared the fences with plenty of room.

He heated up over the summer after starting on somewhat of a pedestrian level, posting an OPS of 1011 in June, 1130 in July, and 1056 in August. Twenty-one of his 32 home runs were hit in these three months. Huff also experienced a split when ahead 1-0 as opposed to behind 0-1, that was not as significant as it can be with most power hitters: when ahead, he hit .311/.402/.591, with a .308/.337/.535 when behind. In the clutch department, even though Huff put up a 942 OPS with runners in scoring position, the same metric decreased as the crucial nature of the situation increased, to the point of his delivering just a 736 OPS in extremely important situations.

Huff experienced changes in his plate-discipline performance as well. For starters, his percentage of first-pitch strikes seen, or plate appearances that conclude following one pitch, decreased from 60.4 percent to 54.6 percent. His major improvement, however, dealt with pitches outside of the strike zone. While his rate of swings at pitches out of the zone remained the same at 26 percent, Huff increased his contact rate on such pitches from 60.3 percent to 64 percent. All told, his overall rate of contact rose from 81.5 percent to 84.8 percent. Grouping all pitches seen together, his 57 percent pitches-taken rate is the highest of his career, and his 15 percent rate of swings and misses happened to be his lowest rate. Taken together, Huff was able to get his bat on more balls out of the zone, take more pitches than before, and reduce the number of those swings that bore nothing in return.

Moving forward, Huff is a truly talented hitter, perhaps a .280/.345/.480 player, not quite as potent as he was in 2008, but much improved from the disappointing 2007 season. If he can sustain the rates posted on balls in play—a very reasonable expectation—as well as those involving his plate discipline (which tend to fluctuate for many players year to year), there is little reason to suggest he could not surpass this crude projection. If there was one player this season who deserved to be discussed much more than he actually was in 2008, based on extremely solid performance, that player was Aubrey Huff.—Eric Seidman

[Stax]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8323

Future Shock
Marlins Top 11 Prospects

by Kevin Goldstein
top 11 prospects

FLORIDA MARLINS
Team Audit | DT Cards | PECOTA Cards | Depth Chart

Five-Star Prospects
1. Cameron Maybin, CF
2. Michael Stanton, RF
3. Matt Dominguez, 3B
Four-Star Prospects
4. Logan Morrison, 1B
5. Kyle Skipworth, C
6. Jose Ceda, RHP
Three-Star Prospects
7. Sean West, LHP
8. Ryan Tucker, RHP
9. Chris Coghlan, 2B
10. John Raynor, LF
11. Gaby Sanchez, 1B

Just Missed: Brett Carroll, OF; Scout Cousins, OF; Ike Galloway, OF

Ranking Challenges: I think Maybin and Stanton are a step ahead of Dominguez and Morrison, but you could flip those four in any order and still make an argument for each scenario. For me, two years and a positional difference create a decent gap between the pair I rank up ahead of the other two. Skipworth and Ceda are on their own island right behind that quartet, and then seven through 11 are all very close to each other.

1. Cameron Maybin, CF
DOB: 4/4/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round (Tigers), 2005, T.C. Roberson HS (NC)
2008 Stats: .277/.375/.456, .266 EqA at Double-A (108 G); .500/.543/.563 at MLB (8 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 1

Year in Review: The biggest name acquired in an off-season blockbuster with the Tigers recovered from a slow start to put up good numbers at Double-A, then began his Florida career in style by going 9-for-11 in his first three games for the Marlins.
The Good: Maybin's raw tools rate with those of any other prospect in the game. He's a big, loose athlete with enough speed and power potential to become a consistent 30-30 type. He has a good feel for the strike zone, and tremendous bat speed generated mostly by remarkable wrist strength. He's a very good center fielder with plenty of range and an above-average arm.
The Bad: Maybin has put up some big strikeout totals throughout his career, including 124 in 390 at-bats last year. His swing has a pronounced trigger in it, which makes it difficult for him to adjust on pitches in flight, often forcing him to flail badly. Some scouts see it as somewhat fixable, others see it as part of the package and not something you'd want to try to fix if it would risk breaking him.
Fun Fact: Maybin's BABIP during his eight big-leagues games was .667; if you're new to the stat, that's a ridiculously high number.
Perfect World Projection: He's a bigger, healthier Eric Davis minus a tick of power and speed, but with plenty of both nonetheless.
Glass Half Empty: Too many strikeouts could make him more of a Mike Cameron clone.
Path To The Big Leagues: The Marlins don't bother keeping their arbitration-eligible players, so there are no roadblocks. That said, the Marlins' primary center fielders in the past three years have been Cody Ross, Alfredo Amezaga, and Reggie Abercrombie, so they're more than a bit desperate.
Timetable: Maybin goes into spring training with the center-field job come Opening Day his to lose; he should be a solid Rookie of the Year candidate.

2. Mike Stanton, RF
DOB: 11/8/89
Height/Weight: 6-5/205
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 2nd round, 2007, Notre Dame HS (CA)
2008 Stats: .293/.381/.611, .270 EqA at Low-A (125 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: He was not on many prospect radars entering the year, but this second-round pick led the Sally League in nearly every power category in what was the absolute definition of a breakout campaign.
The Good: There are a good number of teenagers out there with 80 raw power, but to find one who can already translate it to in-game situations is quite rare, and he doesn't have to make perfect contact to drive it out of the yard. Just as exciting, Stanton isn't merely a one-dimensional slugger; he's a solid athlete who can play center in a pinch, has average speed, and a plus arm.
The Bad: Stanton needs to hone his plate coverage, as his solid walk rate (51 UIBBs in 468 at-bats) is more a reflection of how often he was pitched around. He needs to learn how to shorten his stroke and adjust when behind in the count; 153 strikeouts is something of a concern. Few believe that he'll be able to stay in center as his massive frame fills out.
Fun Fact: When leading off an inning in 2008, Stanton slugged 13 home runs in just 84 at-bats.
Perfect World Projection: He becomes a classic right fielder with 40-plus home runs annually.
Glass Half Empty: He has enormous power, but an enormous number of strikeouts keep his average down and limit his value.
Path To The Big Leagues: The Marlins will always find room for a young talent, especially one like this.
Timetable: Stanton moves from a great hitters' park to the tough offensive environment of the Florida State League, where we'll learn just how much of this is real.

3. Matt Dominguez, 3B
DOB: 8/28/89
Height/Weight: 6-2/180
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2007, Chatsworth HS (CA)
2008 Stats: .296/.354/.499, .233 EqA at Low-A (88 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 3

Year in Review: Even though he was the 12th overall pick in last year's draft, Dominguez nevertheless exceeded all expectations in his full-season debut, finishing fourth in the league in slugging percentage.
The Good: Dominguez has a remarkably quiet swing with little step or trigger, and the bat flies through the zone quickly, allowing him to make consistent, hard contact. Marlins officials believe he's just beginning to find his power; he was recovering from mononucleosis early in the season, and ended up pounding out 10 home runs in his final 22 games. Despite being just a teenager, his defense is big league-quality right now, and he has Gold Glove potential with outstanding instincts, great hands, and a strong, accurate arm.
The Bad: Dominguez can be a hacker, and he often puts himself in bad hitting counts. He's not a clogger on the basepaths, but he is a well below-average runner. There is some concern that the home park played too large a role in his numbers, since he hit just .246/.296/.392 on the road while putting up a 1000-plus OPS in the friendly confines of Greensboro.
Fun Fact: In high school, Dominguez was arguably part of the second-best left side of an infield in the history of high school baseball, playing third while Royals slugging prospect Mike Moustakas was at short. Prizes in the comments section for whoever can name the best—those employed by professional scouting departments are not eligible.
Perfect World Projection: He'll become a healthy, right-handed version of Eric Chavez.
Glass Half Empty: The home park makes him look better than he is, and combined with plate-discipline issues, he'll end up a merely average player.
Path To The Big Leagues: That was a great year by Jorge Cantu and all, but it's not like he'll be around when Dominguez is ready.
Timetable: Dominguez will join Stanton at High-A Jupiter to begin the 2009 season.

4. Logan Morrison, 1B
DOB: 8/25/87
Height/Weight: 6-2/215
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 22nd round, 2005, Northshore HS (LA)
2008 Stats: .332/.402/.494, .294 EqA at High-A (130 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: He followed up his solid full-season debut with a breakout campaign in the Florida State League, where he won the batting title and led the circuit in on-base percentage while finishing fifth in slugging.
The Good: Morrison is easily the best pure hitter in Florida's system. He has an advanced approach with a downright pretty swing and fantastic plate coverage. He has average to above-average power against right-handed pitchers, and he rarely misses when he swings. He's a good athlete for his size and has soft hands at first base.
The Bad: Morrison doesn't have the power normally associated with the position he plays, and he sells out nearly all of his power against left-handers, as he focuses on contact against that side. He needs to improve his positioning and footwork around the bag.
Fun Fact: He played a bit of outfield now and then in the Arizona Fall League, but when he was in his comfort zone playing first base, he went 28-for-58 (.483) at the plate.
Perfect World Projection: He should develop into an impact-level first baseman who makes up for below-average power for the position with high batting averages and on-base percentages.
Glass Half Empty: He might only be Lyle Overbay.
Path To The Big Leagues: Being a young player in the Marlins system is a good thing, and they just traded Mike Jacobs.
Timetable: After a strong performance in the AFL, Morrison could be on the fast track if he can get off to a quick start at the Marlins' new Double-A affiliate in Jacksonville.

5. Kyle Skipworth, C
DOB: 3/1/90
Height/Weight: 6-3/195
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2008, Patriot HS (CA)
2008 Stats: .208/.263/.340 at Rookie-level (43 G)
Last Year's Ranking: N/A

Year in Review: The top high school catcher in the draft was selected sixth overall by the cost-conscious Marlins, and then struggled in his pro debut.
The Good: Skipworth's strong, athletic frame and outstanding tools provide much to hope for. He has plus-plus raw power and a good feel for hitting, moves easily behind the plate, and has a well above-average arm. He gets high grades for his work ethic and leadership, and had no trouble taking control of the pitching staff on the GCL Marlins.
The Bad: Skipworth needs to understand when to shorten his swing; his power-only approach and his difficulty laying off early-count breaking pitches hampered his progress. While he has all of the tools to be an above-average defensive catcher, he's not there yet, and he needs to work on his blocking and catch-and-throw skills.
Fun Fact: Skipworth is the first player ever drafted out of Patriot High School in Riverside, but that's not saying much—the school did not open until 2007.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be an All-Star-caliber catcher.
Glass Half Empty: There may be too many holes in his game, and it may not all come together in the end.
Path To The Big Leagues: There's nothing to lose sleep over at this time.
Timetable: The Marlins believe that Skipworth's pro debut was just a case of the standard initial struggle that often occurs with players who end up being superstars. They're quite confident that he'll put up big numbers at Low-A Greensboro in 2009.

6. Jose Ceda, RHP
DOB: 1/28/87
Height/Weight: 6-4/275
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: Dominican Republic, 2004 (Cubs)
2008 Stats: 4.80 ERA at High-A (54.1-41-28-53), 7.17 DERA; 2.08 ERA at Double-A (30.1-26-14-42), 2.89 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 4 (Cubs)

Year in Review: The former third-ranked Cubs prospect is the first player to make two lists, after recently being traded to Florida for Kevin Gregg. The top closer prospect in the system began the year as a starter in order to work on his overall game, and returned to his dominating ways when moved back into the closer's role at Double-A.

The Good: Ceda brings presence to the mound with the size, stuff, aggressiveness, and intimidation factor of a shut-down closer. He has the classic closer's combination of fastball/slider, both knockout pitches, with the fastball sitting at 94-97 mph and touching 100, while the power slider features plenty of depth and tilt.
The Bad: Ceda overthrows both of his pitches at times, which can lead to control issues, as can his arm-heavy mechanics, which involve a significant amount of grunting. He experimented with a changeup while starting, but it was never any more than a show-me pitch, and nobody argues with the fact that he's a reliever. His size is a bit of a concern, and he started to put on some soft weight last year.
Fun Fact: When pitching in the ninth-inning or later for Double-A Tennessee, Ceda allowed just two runs over 16 innings while striking out 28.
Perfect World Projection: He should become a dominating closer.

Glass Half Empty: Unless his control problems become a constant, or something else unpredictable happens, it's hard to not see Ceda pitching in the late innings.
Path To The Big Leagues: Ceda has closer potential, and the Marlins just traded away their closer for most of the last two seasons to get him. Interesting...
Timetable: While he's now the Marlins' closer of the future, he'll likely begin the year at Triple-A New Orleans.

7. Sean West, LHP
DOB: 6/15/86
Height/Weight: 6-8/200
Bats/Throws: L/L
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2005, Captain Shreve HS (LA)
2008 Stats: 2.41 ERA at High-A (100.2-79-60-92), 4.95 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 6

Year in Review: After missing all of 2007 recovering from labrum surgery, the former top prospect in the system returned, showing good stuff with improved mechanics.
The Good: West is an imposing figure on the mound who backs it up with equally imposing pitches. He has well-above-average velocity for a left-hander, and was sitting at 91-94 mph while touching 96 consistently by the end of the season. It's not a pure sinker, but it generates a good number of ground balls with the downward plane created by his height. He flashes a plus slider with good depth and tilt, and has a good feel for the changeup. One scout who saw West both before and after the surgery credited Florida's staff for creating a much cleaner delivery without altering his core mechanics.
The Bad: Command and control remain West's biggest bugaboos. Like many tall, young pitchers, he has a lot of arms and legs in his delivery, and suffers from inconsistent release points as his arm drifts both up and down. He needs to find more consistency with his secondary pitches, though both do have potential.
Fun Fact: Left-handers facing him in 2008 did not manage a single extra-base hit in 105 plate appearances.
Perfect World Projection: An above-average big-league starter, he'll end up as at least a number three.
Glass Half Empty: Control problems and labrum surgery are two big red flags for a pitcher so young.
Path To The Big Leagues: Repeat after me: this is the Marlins... no one gets blocked.
Timetable: West will need to throw more strikes against the more advanced hitters at Double-A in order to repeat his success from 2008.

8. Ryan Tucker, RHP
DOB: 12/6/86
Height/Weight: 6-2/190
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2005, Temple City HS (CA)
2008 Stats: 1.58 ERA at Double-A (91-64-37-74), 2.32 DERA; 8.27 ERA at MLB (37-46-23-28), 7.86 DERA
Last Year's Ranking: 7

Year in Review: Owner of the best pure arm in the system, Tucker got off to a tremendous start at Double-A, but struggled in the majors both starting and relieving before returning to the Southern League to finish the year.
The Good: Tucker can certainly bring it, with a fastball that sits between 92-95 mph and can touch 97. His arm action is clean and his mechanics are sound. He's an intense competitor who backs down from no challenge, and who was not overwhelmed in any way by his big-league experience or his struggles there.
The Bad: Tucker is a bit of a one-trick pony, or, as the old scouting joke goes, he pitches off his fastball to set up his fastball. He has a changeup that flashes as plus at times, but it's inconsistent, and he's struggled throughout his career to find a dependable breaking ball, finally settling on a slider than tends to flatten and sweep.
Fun Fact: Batters facing Tucker with runners in scoring position and two outs went just 5-for-50 (.100) against him in Double-A, but big leaguers in the same situation hit .353 with a .500 on-base percentage.
Perfect World Projection: If he can find a way to expand his arsenal, Tucker has the mechanics and durability to be a good big-league starter.
Glass Half Empty: Just put him in the bullpen, and stop trying to make him something he's not.
Path To The Big Leagues: I don't know how many ways I can say this: young talent always has a chance with the Marlins.
Timetable: The Marlins sent a signal when Tucker remained in the bullpen following his return to Carolina, and he'll compete for a relief role in spring training, but more likely he'll begin the year at Triple-A.

9. Chris Coghlan, 2B
DOB: 6/18/85
Height/Weight: 6-1/195
Bats/Throws: L/R
Drafted/Signed: 1st round, 2006, University of Mississippi
2008 Stats: .298/.396/.429, .259 EqA at Double-A (132 G)
Last Year's Ranking: 9

Year in Review: He's a classic polished college product who delivered a good year at the upper levels and participated in the Futures Game.
The Good: Coghlan is a pest on offense who works the count well and combines excellent contact with the ability to drive balls on occasion. Once he gets on, he's a plus runner who likes to steal bases. He's played a solid second base after moving there from third, which was his position in college.
The Bad: Coghlan doesn't have any one tool that really lights up the scouting reports. He's still a bit rough around the edges defensively, and there's not much projection left in him; he is pretty much is what he is.
Fun Fact: While the University of Mississippi has a solid baseball program in the always-tough SEC, only three players drafted out of the school have more than 100 major league hits: David Dellucci, Steve Dillard, and Chris Snopek.
Perfect World Projection: He becomes a solid, grind-it-out style middle infielder who helps you more than he hurts you.
Glass Half Empty: He winds up as a utility player at second and third who provides on-base skills coming off the bench.
Path To The Big Leagues: Rumors of Dan Uggla's departure have been flying around...
Timetable: ...but for now, Coghlan is scheduled to begin the year at Triple-A, as new acquisition Emilio Bonifacio has first dibs on the second-base job should Uggla depart (or simply move off of second).

10. John Raynor, LF
DOB: 1/4/84
Height/Weight: 6-2/185
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 9th round, 2006, University of North Carolina at Wilmington
2008 Stats: .312/.402/.489, .266 EqA at Double-A (126 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Just Missed

Year in Review: This relatively obscure ninth-round pick was last year's Sally League MVP, and made a two-level jump up to Double-A but kept on producing, leading the Southern League in runs (104) and stolen bases (48).
The Good: Despite his draft status and age, Raynor does have some nice tools, beginning with plus-plus speed and an aggressive style that turns singles into doubles, and makes him a threat to run in any situation. He's also an adept hitter who works the count well, utilizing a line-drive swing and occasionally stinging one into the gaps.
The Bad: Raynor is a little rough in the outfield and has a weak arm, and he projects as more of a left fielder than someone who can play center every day. He's aggressive early in the count and can press at times when behind, leading to higher strikeout totals than one would normally see with this kind of profile. He absolutely mashes left-handers, while being merely good against righties.
Fun Fact: Of the 16 position players drafted out of UNC Wilmington over the last four decades, none have reached the big leagues.
Perfect World Projection: He'll be an everyday left fielder who fits in perfectly as the number-two hitter in a good lineup.
Glass Half Empty: He doesn't produce enough offense for a left fielder, but he's a great bench outfielder.
Path To The Big Leagues: Seriously, who is the Marlins left fielder right now? Even the depth chart on their official site is blank.
Timetable: Raynor has an outside shot at earning a job in spring training, but he's more likely bound for Triple-A to begin the year.

11. Gaby Sanchez, 1B
DOB: 9/2/83
Height/Weight: 6-2/225
Bats/Throws: R/R
Drafted/Signed: 4th round, 2005, University of Miami
2008 Stats: .314/.404/.513, .269 EqA at Double-A (133 G)
Last Year's Ranking: Not Ranked

Year in Review: This talented offensive prospect rebounded from a disappointing 2007 season to pace the Southern League with 42 doubles, finishing among the league leaders in several offensive categories.
The Good: Few have any qualms about Sanchez' stick. He has a good approach, excellent contact skills, and at least average power. After moving all around the field, he's finally found a defensive home at first base, where he now projects as a solid defender with a very good arm that's somewhat wasted on the position. He runs well for his size, and shows consistent effort.
The Bad: His ticket to the majors is his bat; it's really his only plus tool. That said, there are questions as to whether it will be enough to make him an everyday big leaguer. He absolutely crushes left-handers (.374/.456/.680 in 2008), but is merely average against righties, and his power is below-average for his (new) position. He's 50 pounds heavier than he was during his freshman year in college, and he has a big, thick frame that most feel will reduce his speed and athleticism down the road.
Fun Fact: Sanchez hit .388 (47-for-121) in the first two innings of his games for Double-A Carolina with a .644 slugging percentage, but hit only .289 and slugged .468 from the third inning on.
Perfect World Projection: He should be an average first baseman in the big leagues.
Glass Half Empty: He becomes a platoon player with power off the bench whose ability to mash lefties gives opposing managers problems going to a southpaw from the pen.
Path To The Big Leagues: Mike Jacobs is now with the Royals.
Timetable: The Marlins enter the season without a first baseman, so Sanchez will have every opportunity to earn a job in the big leagues this spring.

The Sleeper: Acquired recently in a trade with Washington, second baseman Jake Smolinski has had trouble staying healthy in the pros, but he's a surprisingly advanced hitter for a teenager from the north (Illinois), with a very quick bat.

Top 10 Talents 25 and Under (as of Opening Day 2009)
1. Hanley Ramirez, SS
2. Cameron Maybin, CF
3. Mike Stanton, RF
4. Josh Johnson, RHP
5. Matt Dominguez, 3B
6. Chris Volstad, RHP
7. Logan Morrison, 1B
8. Kyle Skipworth, C
9. Jose Ceda, RHP
10. Anibal Sanchez, RHP

The Marlins are flush with young talent, but a look at the overall list poses more questions than answers. Ramirez is fantastic—that's a given—and I'm still a big believer in Johnson, who looked good after surgery and could be poised for a breakout. I am not, however, a big believer in pitchers of Volstad's type, and I think he'll have some problems the second time around. Sanchez still has some upside, and while he struggled upon his return, he did miss bats. Two players highly regarded in some circles who did not make the cut are Jeremy Hermida (Ben Grieve disease) and Andrew Miller, who has been a consistent disappointment since being rated as the best college pitcher in the 2006 draft. His stuff still grades out very well, but he just doesn't know what to do with it, and he pitches scared at times.

Summary: The Marlins system took a tremendous step forward this year with the emergence of Stanton and Dominguez as two of the top teenage prospects in the game. They need to continue to find more, based on their current strategy of heavy turnover at the big-league level.

[Stax]

http://www.baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8335

Prospectus Today
Dodgers GM for a Day

by Joe Sheehan

In the run-up to the Winter Meetings, which begin a week from today in Las Vegas, I'm going to resurrect a feature I've done sporadically in the past, "GM For a Day." It is exactly what it sounds like: I take over a team and do what I think needs to be done. (Note that no one has ever hired me based on these pieces.) With 30 teams and probably five columns before next Monday, I won't get to everyone, and I haven't picked the next four, so if you have a preference, send it in via e-mail and I'll use that feedback to select the next candidates.

Today, I slip into Ned Colletti's shoes and take over the Dodgers. Coming off of a division title as a high-revenue franchise with a fantastic farm system—even after sloughing off talent right and left over the last few years—you would think the Dodgers might be in fantastic shape. They're certainly better off than many teams, but look past the crown and the money and the kids, and you find a team that is going to be changed significantly a year from now, one that has a staggering amount of dead money on the payroll, and one which is run, from the top down, a bit strangely.

The core talent here is as good as you'll find for ability, age, payroll, and team control. Russell Martin, James Loney, Matt Kemp, Andre Ethier, Chad Billingsley, and Clayton Kershaw match up with any top six roster spots in the game once payroll and control are considered. Some teams go decades without having that much talent come through their system; the Dodgers will put five of those guys on the field 40 percent of the time next year. Throw in Hiroki Kuroda, James McDonald, Jonathan Broxton, Hong-Chih Kuo, and, perhaps, Chin-Lung Hu, and the Dodgers will have nearly half of their roster comprised of talent they developed or signed, with only Ethier a marginal call in that area. The Brewers, the Rays, and maybe the Diamondbacks are the only teams that can put that much internally-developed talent on the field in 2009.

Yet the Dodgers have some problems. Outside of Martin, and the notion that Matt Kemp is a center fielder, it's a pretty weak team up the middle. A Hu/Blake DeWitt middle infield is problematic, because as good as Hu is defensively, he's yet to show that he can hit above Double-A. He's a career .307/.331/.451 batter in the PCL, with home games in Las Vegas and just 13 walks in more than 350 PA, and a .193/.250/.250 hitter in parts of two seasons in the majors. Hu slugged .507 at two levels combined in '07, but that '08 performance is worrisome. His glove warrants their opening the season with him at shortstop, because bringing along Billingsley, Kershaw, and McDonald will be easier with the plus-plus glove at shortstop.

DeWitt was, in a small sample, a statistical positive at second base, and there's an argument that it's the only place his bat will play. On the other hand, he looked awkward at the keystone almost all of the time, the Dodgers currently have no third baseman, and second basemen are something of a dime a dozen. It seems like a better idea to move DeWitt back to third and hope that the upward trend in his plate discipline was more than just a lineup-position thing. It's an open question for the 23-year-old, who drew a disproportionate number of intentionals (nine of his 45) and had just three unintentional walks in 108 PA outside of the seventh and eighth slots in the lineup. With Andy LaRoche gone, however, DeWitt is the choice to play third.

That leaves second base as a hole. I'm not ready to anoint Ivan DeJesus as a middle-infield answer based on three great months at Double-A. His presence, however, makes me feel better about thinking of second base as a short-term problem, something DeJesus can solve very late next year or in 2010. With that in mind, I want to find a stopgap solution, something there are always plenty of at second base. With Loney and Hu at first base and shortstop, sacrificing some defense for offense is an option here, especially with the team lacking a true leadoff hitter. Ray Durham still provides OBP and won't require draft-pick compensation for signing him. A two-year, $8 million offer should bring him into the fold, and allow the Dodgers time to figure out what DeJesus and Hu will be for them.

I mentioned Kemp as a center fielder earlier... he's a right fielder by trade, with good raw speed that doesn't translate well to center, and equipped with a right-fielder's arm. The decision to play him in center, flanked by Ethier and Manny Ramirez, was absolutely correct late last year, but now, with Ramirez gone, ideally the Dodgers would find a center fielder, slide Kemp to right and Ethier to left, and give themselves a plus defensive outfield.

Well, "find" may not be the best verb. The Dodgers "found" Juan Pierre two offseasons ago, and Andruw Jones last winter, to disastrous results. Both are still around, soaking up $27 million in payroll and providing brutal performance for the money. Neither was terribly happy by the end of last season, reduced to part-time or no-time roles, and it is likely that both expect to get much more playing time in '09. Jones, in particular, is a problem, because his skill set doesn't translate well to the bench. He's a low-average, high-power guy without good raw speed; if he's not a starter, he's just sitting there. Pierre, at the least, can bunt and run, though his horrible arm makes him a liability in center field, and he would have no business playing a corner on a team with Ethier and Kemp.

There is no easy answer here, in part because a year after being lousy with center fielders, the free-agent market is short of them. All of the options are aging, injury-prone, or not very good, and quite frankly, the Dodgers have too much of those things. The trade market is basically Aaron Rowand; the Giants aren't exactly giving him away, and his declining stock with four years left on an expensive deal is a bad idea, anyway. Rocco Baldelli is an interesting gamble, perhaps in a platoon with Pierre where Baldelli could earn more than a right-handed batter's share of playing time, but Baldelli has played 162 innings in center field since 2006, and his body simply may not let him do more than that. The upside is there, but the Dodgers need a center fielder, and should look elsewhere.

Getting creative, the idea of trying to pry Rickie Weeks from the Brewers has merit. With the Dodgers having openings in both center field and at second base, they could trade for Weeks, and move him to center—and yes, Keith Law and I will eventually arm-wrestle for the rights to this idea—with the backup plan of sticking him at second base if the move fails, using Durham and Weeks in a Wally Backman/Tim Teufel Memorial "Look ma, no hands" platoon. That's a trade with upside that addresses a positional need and a lineup gap, and includes a fallback even within it. The Dodgers have dealt good prospects, and have been absolutely been in deals for guys like Casey Blake and Mark Hendrickson and Danys Baez; this would actually be a good use of Logan White's progeny. You don't waste Andrew Lambo or Scott Elbert this way, but maybe DeJesus, or a Xavier Paul-plus-pitcher combination?

There's a notion that the Dodgers have a rotation problem, but I don't see it, not unless Chad Billingsley's leg injury is that much worse than expected. A rotation of Billingsley, Kuroda, Kershaw, McDonald, and Stults will seem risky, but could be above-average across the board. Kuo is around, and Elbert could arrive late in the year. Jason Schmidt is still in the organization as well. I suppose if there was ever an argument for a six-man rotation, it would be the team with this much young pitching and rehab cases needing to manage a lot of workloads in one year.

A better solution is to buy your way out of the problem. Just eyeballing the numbers at Cot's, the Dodgers have $54 million or so (I prorated signing bonuses where applicable) committed to Jones, Schmidt, Kuroda, and Pierre, and some high-value arbitration-eligibles in Broxton, Ethier, and Martin. Let's say that group, all first-time eligibles, comes in collectively at $15 million, which is probably high. That leaves the Dodgers at $69 million in commitments for seven roster slots. Even with some bumps for Kemp and Loney—bumps that aren't mandatory—the Dodgers would still be well under their 2008 Opening Day payroll of $118 million.

I've argued again and again that the safest bet in this year's pitching market is Derek Lowe. The Dodgers have an established relationship with Lowe; he's been successful with them, and he does seem like the kind of pitcher better suited for the NL than the AL. They have more than enough payroll flexibility to offer him a premium over what Ryan Dempster—a pitcher who doesn't have anything like Lowe's track record—received, and because Lowe is a durable ground-ball pitcher in good condition, the risk they're taking is less than what any other team will be taking in signing Dempster, CC Sabathia, A.J. Burnett, or any other "name" free-agent starter this winter. Lowe would stabilize the rotation, increase the benefit of playing Hu at shortstop, and by pushing everyone back a slot, he would create depth on the back end that could be used in season to make a trade or just manage the innings of all the young pitchers.

With the big moves out of the way, the focus also has to be on managing Russell Martin better than was done in '08. Joe Torre burnt out his starting catcher last year, and Martin was overused in '07 as well; he needs to be given a backup catcher worth playing. The Practically Perfect Backup Catcher, Gregg Zaun, is a free agent who fits nicely with Martin, a switch-hitter who provides OBP from the left side and who, honestly, isn't a great defensive player. With that said, Zaun may be at the point of his career where he's more risk than reward. No matter who the choice is—Dave Ross, or Javier Valentin, or Ivan Rodriguez—the Dodgers have to bring in a catcher that Torre will play every five days or so, or risk destroying a tremendous asset in Martin.

What about Manny Ramirez? Well, he's 36, and he's a big negative defensively whose presence creates worse defense at the other two outfield spots as well. There are better fits for Ramirez than the Dodgers, and the team should recognize that and put their money elsewhere. Letting Ramirez's fantastic two months drive a $50 million decision would be a mistake.

So here's the plan, in order of importance:

1.

Sign Derek Lowe for four years and $62 million. He's the best fit for this team and this payroll, and there should be some value to Lowe in not having to relocate. If there's not, ply him with additional money.
2.

Trade Xavier Paul and Victor Garate to the Brewers for Rickie Weeks; then make Weeks a center fielder. It's a low bid, and honestly, I'm skeptical enough of DeJesus' power and ability to play shortstop than I might deal him if that's what it took to get Weeks.
3.

Sign Ray Durham for two years, $8 million. The extra year is designed to get this over with quickly, as the falloff from Durham to the next option is steep enough to want to avoid the question. If Durham is done, this is an easy contract to eat. Speaking of which…
4.

Release Andruw Jones. Ideally, you could get him to agree to a buyout, where he takes 60 cents on the dollar and gets to hit the market again, choosing that ahead of a season in which he bats 125 times as the Dodgers' fifth outfielder. There's no place for him on this roster. A year ago, I loved this signing; I was very, very wrong.
5.

Sign Javier Valentin. He starts 30-35 games against good right-handed pitchers and is a very good pinch-hitter the rest of the time.
6.

Re-sign Takashi Saito. Offer him a high-upside deal. It's not likely there's much guaranteed money available for him, and he's one of those "good or unavailable" guys.
7.

Offer arbitration to Ramirez. I can't fathom him taking it, and almost no team uses draft picks as well as the Dodgers do.

These things done, my 2009 Dodgers:

Weeks CF
Ethier LF
Kemp RF
Loney 1B
Martin C
Durham 2B
DeWitt 3B
Hu SS

Bench: Pierre, Valentin, Delwyn Young, Tony Abreu, Jason Repko

Rotation: Lowe, Billingsley, Kershaw, Kuroda, Kuo, Schmidt

Bullpen: Broxton, Saito, Cory Wade, McDonald, Stults, Elbert

[Stax]

For anyone interested, an interesting take on ARod's chase of Bonds.

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=8543

Chasing Bonds

by Nate Silver

We're less than two full years removed from Barry Bonds' somber, strange, and soulless quest to break Henry Aaron's lifetime home-run record. It was a spectacle that most sports fans—even the few like me who were relatively sympathetic towards Bonds' plight—would go to great lengths to avoid having to experience again.

Unfortunately, it appears that history may be preparing to repeat itself. Alex Rodriguez has already hit 553 home runs, by far the most ever for a player having just completed his age-32 season. He needs only 203 more to surpass Aaron, and 210 to best Bonds. Rodriguez has hit an average of 42 home runs per season since joining the New York Yankees in 2003, and if he maintains that pace, he'll overtake Bonds' mark on the last day of the 2013 season. Being under contract with the Yankees through 2017, he seems to have plenty of time to spare.

But player-haters can rejoice: Rodriguez breaking the career home-run record is nowhere near a foregone conclusion. It boils down to that fine print that you ignored when you invested your daughter's college fund in Citibank stock a few years ago: past performance is no guarantee of future results.

Rodriguez has certainly been among the best players in baseball over the past couple of years. And chemically enhanced or not, there are a number of indicators that would ordinarily be favorable toward his continuing to perform well. Among them:

*

All-around Athleticism: Rodriguez is far from a one-dimensional player. At an age when most guys refrain from challenging themselves on the basepaths, he still averages about 20 stolen bases per year. He plays a fairly difficult defensive position, and he plays it well. He's a complete hitter, able to draw walks and hit for average as well as aim for the fences. Generally speaking, multi-dimensional players age better than uni-dimensional players.
*

The Benjamin Button Principle: This is the concept that the beginning of a player's life sometimes resembles the end: guys who begin their careers with a bang tend to end it that way. Rodriguez, who by the age of 20 was already arguably the best player in baseball, started his career as did few others in history, and he has a better-than-usual chance of finishing it that way.
*

Perverse Incentives, Part I: Rodriguez stands to earn a $30 million bonus if he can break the home-run record. As he gets closer, those are 30 million reasons for him to extend his career until he does, rather than considering early retirement.

On the other hand, another set of indicators imply uncertainty in Rodriguez' future:

*

The Aging Curve: The steepest part of the aging curve—when a hitter experiences the most manifest decline in his abilities—tends to come between ages 32 and 34. Rodriguez, who turned 33 last July, is now about half-way through that period, and he hasn't come away completely unscathed: A-Rod hit 30 home runs in the first half of the 2007 season and 24 in the second half, and then 19 home runs in the first half of '08 and only 16 after the break. That could just be a fluke—or it could mean that he's already begun a fairly steep downward trajectory.
*

Injury Risk: Although Rodriguez has generally been the picture of health, that trend somewhat reversed itself in 2008 when he missed 24 games, the most in any season since 1999. Injury problems can sometimes be compounding, especially when a player reaches his mid-30s. There is also some anecdotal evidence that players who have experimented with steroids are more inclined to have chronic injury problems.
*

Perverse Incentives, Part II: Unless he was investing with Bernie Madoff, Rodriguez already has all the money that he'll need for life, and it's highly unlikely that he'll ever be on the market again. Most of us, given a guaranteed salary for the next nine years that requires us to do nothing other than show up and put on a uniform, might become somewhat lackadaisical in our work habits. Many professional athletes are different—but others aren't.

The favorable and unfavorable indicators are each reflected to some degree in Rodriguez' series of PECOTA comparables. His list includes many Hall of Famers, such as Dave Winfield, George Brett, Frank Robinson, Reggie Jackson, Tony Perez, and Hank Aaron himself, who were all elite athletes late into their 30s or early 40s.

However, it also includes some other players whose careers did not end all that gracefully. First are the guys who succumbed to injury, like Jeff Bagwell and Albert Belle. Next are a few players who, like Rodriguez, were known or suspected to have used performance-enhancing drugs: Sammy Sosa is A-Rod's top comparable, for instance, and Ken Caminiti is his fourth. Finally, there are players like Ryne Sandberg, whose skills simply atrophied sooner or more suddenly than expected.

I took Rodriguez' top 20 PECOTA comparable players and averaged their performances over each remaining season of their careers. Actually, the process is a little more complicated than that (each comparable's performance was adjusted for his park and league context, as well as his previous track record, and we had to make an accommodation for guys like Manny Ramirez, who made A-Rod's comparables list but have yet to conclude their own careers). The basic idea though, is simple: comparables like Frank Robinson, who aged well, have a favorable impact on Rodriguez' forecast, and players like Caminiti have the opposite effect.

Alex Rodriguez' PECOTA-Projected Home Run Totals:


Year HR
2009 33
2010 30
2011 27
2012 25
2013 18
2014 16
2015 12
2016 8
2017 4
2018 3
2019 1
Total 177
Career 730

PECOTA's best guess is that Rodriguez will run out of steam after the next three or four seasons and finish with 730 lifetime home runs, leaving him just shy of the marks established by Aaron and Bonds. Of course, there is a great deal of uncertainty in this estimate: if Rodriguez follows the path charted by Aaron or Frank Robinson, he could finish with well in excess of 800 home runs (and possibly as many as 900). On the other hand, if he draws Albert Belle's ping-pong ball, he might not even top 600. Overall, the system puts Rodriguez' chances of surpassing Aaron at only about 40 percent, and of passing Bonds closer to 30 percent.

One needs to remember that the way that Aaron and Bonds finished out their careers was far from typical. At least as common are folks like Jimmie Foxx (before Rodriguez, the fastest player to 500 home runs), who hit just 34 home runs after turning 33. Only about a dozen players have hit 200 or more home runs from their age-33 seasons onward; Bonds and Aaron are the only two to have hit at least 300.

In other words, Rodriguez still has his work cut out for him if he intends to catch them. Say what you will about his past performance, but for him to make it across this finish line would still represent a remarkable accomplishment.

[TheImpossibleMan]

Monday Ten Pack

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9064

Thanks in advance.

[Stax]

Future Shock
Monday Ten Pack

by Kevin Goldstein

Jake Arrieta, RHP, Orioles (Triple-A Norfolk)
Arrieta was certainly dealing at Double-A, striking out 70 over 59 innings and limiting the Eastern League to a .208 batting average, but it was still surprising to see him bumped up to Triple-A. Not that he didn't deserve it—he did pitch six two-hit innings in his Norfolk debut—but it's surprising in what the move might say about his timetable. The Orioles have already looked at a lot of young arms this year at the big-league level, but they've stayed away from the premium guys like Chris Tillman. Now that he's joined in Triple-A by Arrieta, one wonders if they're simply lining up all of the pieces for a September look and a permanent installation in April 2010 as starters.

Jason Castro, C, Astros (Double-A Corpus Christi)
The Astros' first-round pick from last last year made his own jump last week, moving up to Double-A after compiling a .309/.399/.517 line at High-A Lancaster. The hitting has continued in the Texas League, as Castro is 6-for-16 in his first four games for the Hooks. As good as his offense has been, it's his work behind the plate that has been earning raves from scouts; he gunned down nearly 60 percent of opposing basestealers at Lancaster. Catchers with real value both offensively and defensively are rare commodities, and Castro is looking more and more as if he'll be in the big leagues sometime next year.

Yohan Flande, LHP, Phillies (High-A Clearwater)
A 23-year-old Dominican who pitched in the Gulf Coast League last year, Flande is not a guy with a lot of hype behind him, but he's been nothing short of outstanding this year, firing a six-hit shutout on Sunday to lower his ERA to 2.45 over 12 starts. He's not a massive prospect, but a quick check with a scout shows that there's definitely something there, as his fringe/average fastball plays up due to location and movement, while his changeup is truly a plus offering. He's probably a reliever in the end, but after coming into the year without even being on anyone's radar, that's a massive upgrade.

Tyson Gillies, OF, Mariners (High-A High Desert)
A Canadian import who is legally deaf, Gillies is an absolute burner who the Mariners hoped would be able to take off with an assignment to the hitters' paradise of High Desert. He's beginning to work the count much better, and that's helping every aspect of his game. While his two home runs on Sunday aren't a good representation of his game, he is 12-for-19 in his last five games, batting .330/.440/.500 overall with nine triples and 16 stolen bases. We won't know just how real this is until he gets to Double-A, but it's definitely interesting.

Gio Gonzalez, LHP, Athletics (Triple-A Sacramento)
Gonzalez drives me nuts, and I have to wonder what effect he has on the Athletics themselves. It's just hard to find a more inconsistent pitcher in the game today. When he's on, he's outstanding, and when the command falters, he's horrible. In a three-start stretch during the middle of May, Gonzalez allowed 16 runs over 13 2/3 innings while walking 12, but since then, he's been nearly untouchable, giving up only one run in four outings while striking out 28 and giving up just nine hits in 25 innings. It's those kinds of performances that will get him back to the big leagues, but it's the showings in May that also might make Oakland hesitate, as they just don't know which version of the southpaw they'll be getting on any given night.

Devaris Gordon, SS, Dodgers (Single-A Great Lakes)
Coming out of a slump, Gordon had six hits over the weekend including a pair of triples, and he's now batting .289/.354/.387. That line may not be overly impressive, but at the same time it could also be the most impressive line in the league, as it's hard to find a more raw talent on the circuit. An outstanding athlete with a body and tool set that remind some of a young Jimmy Rollins, Gordon is incredibly unrefined but still producing, and those who feel he's just beginning to scratch the surface of his abilities also think that it's hard to find a player in the Midwest League with as much upside.

Bryce Harper, C, College of Southern Nevada
Think Stephen Strasburg got hyped? Meet Bryce Harper, the top prospect for the 2011 draft... oh wait, make that 2010. Over the weekend it was announced that Harper, who just finished his sophomore year at a Canyon Springs High School, is done with that whole prep thing and will begin working toward his GED with the intent of enrolling in junior college next fall. That will technically make him draft-eligible next year, but there will be a hearing on the gambit sometime soon. Without question, Harper is a legitimate mega-talent, despite the aggrandized and at times apocryphal stories of his baseball prowess. Another Scott Boras soap opera is sure to follow, but more importantly, Harper's certainly a player worth watching.

Buster Posey, C, Giants (High-A San Jose)
Posey just keeps hitting, and he's beginning to lean toward wasting his time in the Cal League barring a promotion to Double-A. He went 5-for-10 over the weekend with a pair of doubles, and is now batting .318/.416/.534 on the season, but it's his walk rate that might impress at first look, though it could also become a concern for his development. In 13 games this month, Posey has 39 at-bats and 13 walks, and it's not because he's suddenly turned into Wade Boggs, but because everyone is pitching around him in a weakened San Jose lineup. He needs the challenge of a higher level, where opposing teams will focus on getting him out.

Anthony Rizzo, 1B, Red Sox (Single-A Greenville)
Rizzo's recovery from cancer continues to be not only inspiring, but also impressive; he had two hits in each of his three weekend games, including his ninth home run on Sunday, and is now batting .340 in June and .286/.357/.476 overall. First-base prospects are difficult to evaluate, and one needs to be a true offensive force to profile well as a prospect, and though Rizzo isn't quite there yet, he is quite possibly on his way. He can certainly hit, but his attributes in the power and patience departments are merely average. Still, he's just 19, there's plenty of time, and you really do have to root for him.

Alex White, RHP, University of North Carolina
After saving his draft status with an outstanding start in the super regionals, White maintained the roll he's been on in the College World Series over the weekend, firing nine fantastic innings against a very good Arizona State team while allowing one run on seven hits and striking out 12. The 131 pitches may have drawn a few winces from Indians' officials in attendance, but maybe they took comfort in the fact that they plan to convert their first-round selection to a reliever, which, based on his arm action and repertoire, is arguably his most logical role. If he signs quickly, he could be a favorite to be the first non-Strasburg draftee to reach the big leagues.

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9072

Thanks.

[Stax]

Future Shock
AL Draft Wrap

by Kevin Goldstein

Baltimore Orioles

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (5) Matt Hobgood, RHP, Norco HS (CA)
2: (54) Mychael Givens, SS, Plant HS (FL)
3: (85) Tyler Townsend, 1B, Florida International

Quick Take: While saying Hobgood was your guy regardless of signability for PR purposes is understandable, it's still hard to believe. If you say a Hobgood for $2.5 million or so is a better pick than one of the four big high school arms who want twice that much, that's not only understandable, but probably correct. However, don't say that you truly thought that on pure talent he was better than all of them, even if many did see him at the top of the list of second-tier arms. Givens is an outstanding athlete who started the year as a potential first-rounder, while Townsend is the kind of player who should please the numbers crowd, as he's coming off of a massive junior year, though the bat is his only tool.

Notable Later Picks: Righty Ryan Berry (9th round) looked like a first-round pick before he got hurt, but he'll return to Rice if he doesn't get the kind of money he was looking at pre-injury. Outfielder Devin Harris (8th) is a massive, athletic outfielder with power, speed, and huge holes in his swing. Lefty Ashur Tolliver (5th) combines a smallish frame with outstanding arm strength.

Final Summary: Even though the logic behind the pick was actually sound, taking Hobgood that high is risky, just because of the potential to look bad and/or cheap. Givens pleases the scouts, Townsend pleases the spreadsheet crowd, and the rest of their draft involved a similar balance of tools and performance.

Boston Red Sox

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (28) Reymond Fuentes, OF, Fernando Callejo HS (PR)
2: (77) Alex Wilson, RHP, Texas A&M
3: (107) David Renfroe, SS, South Panola HS (MS)

Quick Take: Fuentes was the big mover in the days leading up to the draft thanks to some outstanding private workouts that had some comparing him to a Jacoby Ellsbury type with a little more pop. That's a scary thing, as draft history is filled with plenty of examples of workout stars who quickly fell by the wayside as well as those who quickly became stars. Two recent examples of note are two Reds first-rounders: Devin Mesoraco (the version that doesn't work out), and Jay Bruce (the version that does). Wilson has above-average stuff and command, but also a checkered injury history as well as an inconsistent track record. Renfroe was the first slot-busting pick by Boston; a two-way star looking for a lot of cash, he wants to be an everyday player, and he has above-average power for the position and a plus-plus arm.

Notable Later Picks: Righty Madison Younginer (7th) is a borderline first-round talent looking for first-round money. He got up to 96 mph this year, giving him some of the top velocity among high school arms, but as one scout put it, "it wasn't especially pretty." Outfielder Brandon Jacobs (10th) is a huge athlete who is leaning toward playing football at Auburn, even though his potential on the diamond is significant. Baylor righty Kendal Volz (9th) entered the spring as a first-round pick, but he had one of the most disappointing junior years of any college prospect this spring, also losing 4-6 mph of velocity. If he's signable, he's worth a shot to see if he can regain his touch.

Final Summary: Instead of making a big splash the way they had in the previous draft, the Red Sox played it a little closer to the vest this year, but they still have a shot at turning some of their later-round picks into something much more than the talent normally found there.

Chicago White Sox

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (23) Jared Mitchell, OF, Louisiana State; (38) Josh Phegley, C, Indiana
2: (61) Trayce Thompson, OF, Santa Margarita HS (CA); (71) David Holmberg, LHP, Port Charlotte HS (FL)
3: (102) Bryan Morgado, LHP, Tennessee

Quick Take: The White Sox were looking at high-ceiling position players the whole way with the 23rd pick, and they had to be thrilled that Mitchell was still on the board when their selection came up. Phegley was a head-scratcher at 38, though nobody questions the bat, but the White Sox are one of the few who think he can stay at catcher; the consensus outside of their organization was that he was downright awful there, despite having the tools to play behind the plate. Trayce Thompson's upside surpasses that of even Mitchell, and while his being picked this high was surprising, it's only because he was seen as unsignable by many clubs, so if he signs credit to the White Sox for gauging how willing he was to go pro. Holmberg is a big lefty with a lot of projection, but like Thompson his current skills require some dreaming. Morgado is another arm-strength type with plus-plus velocity for a southpaw, but his command and secondary stuff lag behind.

Notable Later Picks: The closer at Miami, righty Kyle Bellamy (5th) doesn't profile as a ninth-inning type in the majors, but he's pressure-proven, has an outstanding sinker, and could move quickly. Fellow righty Ryan Buch (8th) is a big, raw, power arm, but most intriguing is 15th-round selection Dane Williams, who some saw as the highest-ceiling high school pitcher in Florida, though he's expected to be a very difficult sign.

Final Summary: The White Sox have now firmly moved away from their earlier overly-safe drafts of the past, and by focusing on upside, they've added a lot of it to the system while mixing in some safe college types as well.

Cleveland Indians

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (15) Alex White, RHP, North Carolina
2: (63) Jason Kipnis, OF, Arizona State
3: (94) Joe Gardner, RHP, Cal Santa Barbara

Quick Take: White was expected to go higher than 15th, but he fell to the middle of the first round when several teams drafting ahead of him went the signability route. The Indians have made no secret of the fact that they like White better for both the short and long term in a bullpen role, and his fastball/splitter combination should be late inning-worthy. Kipnis is a great find in the second round as a player who combines athleticism and performance, while Gardner is a big right-hander with an outstanding sinker.

Notable Later Picks: Third baseman Kyle Bellows (4th) has a big bat, but it was surprising to see Cleveland take another corner-only guy with power. Jordan Henry (7th), on the other hand, is a true burner with leadoff skills. Righty Austin Adams (5th) can really break out the heat, but he's very raw developmentally.

Final Summary: The Indians have to be pleased with having White fall to the them, though the decision to immediately make him a reliever will be understandably questioned by some. Kipnis also could have gone higher, but overall Cleveland's draft still falls into the conservative category.

Detroit Tigers

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (9) Jacob Turner, RHP, Westminster Christian Academy (MO)
2: (58) Andy Oliver, LHP, Oklahoma State
3: (89) Wade Gaynor, 3B, Western Kentucky

Quick Take: Once again, the Tigers get the best high school arm in the draft, and they get him with a much lower pick than you'd think that would take. While it's not the steal that Rick Porcello was two years ago, to get a talent like Turner ninth overall should thrill Tigers fans; beyond his mid-90s heat, Turner's secondary stuff is highly advanced for his age. Oliver is another Boras client, and while he struggled during his junior year, it's hard to find big, physical lefties who can get it up to 96 mph. Gaynor has no standout tool, but his ability to hit and hit for power both rate as solid, and he's a good athlete for his size.

Notable Later Picks: It will be very hard to sign 15th-round pick Mark Appel away from a commitment to Stanford, but Northern California scouts love his projection. Detroit is hoping that the hometown appeal will help them sign shortstop Danny Fields (6th), the best high school player in the state. Outfielder Jamie Johnson (7th) has a fireplug build but outstanding athleticism, and also a big-league approach at the plate.

Final Summary: Nobody values size and velocity more than Tigers scouting director David Chadd. You would just think that at some point teams would realize that he keeps getting the best arms regardless of draft position, and they'd try to stop it.

Kansas City Royals

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (12) Aaron Crow, RHP, Fort Worth Cats
2: No pick
3: (91) Wil Myers, C, Wesleyan Christian Academy (NC)

Quick Take: Crow's velocity was impressive in indie league action this spring, but his command and slider weren't as sharp as they were last year at Missouri. Still, we're talking about the best college arm in last year's draft, and he could end up being quite the find with the 12th pick. Myers was strongly considered by the Royals with their first-round pick, as they were initially focused on up-the-middle types. He'll need first-round money to sign, despite the debate over his ability to stay behind the plate.

Notable Later Picks: Southpaw Chris Dwyer (4th) is the rarest of the rare as a draft-eligible freshman, but his fastball and curve are both true plus offerings, and he's made some indications that he wants to sign. LSU's Louis Coleman (5th) could move quickly if converted to a bullpen role, thanks to his impressive sinker/slider combination. The Royals took a flyer in the 37th round on righty Tanner Poppe, hoping that the 6-foot-6 righty, one of the best basketball, football, and baseball players in the state of Kansas, might want to sign with the Royals, but 29 other teams and 1,111 picks before him show just how unsignable everyone thinks he is.
Final Summary: Rumors are circulating that the Royals and Crow had a deal arranged prior to his selection, as plenty of first-round teams did not get a return call from Crow's advisors in the hours leading up to the draft, while Crow was also seen with Royals' officials at various points during the spring. It's hard to see him getting more than the $3.5 million he turned down from Washington last year, and his bonus, as well as that of Texas pick Tanner Scheppers, could have players thinking twice about trying the year-off/indie-ball gambit. Myers gives them another first-round talent, and the organization continued to play aggressively into the later rounds as Kansas City's rebuilding from within continues in a most impressive manner.

Los Angeles Angels of Anaheim

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (24) Randal Grichuk, OF, Lamar HS (TX); (25) Mike Trout, OF, Millville HS (NJ); (40) Tyler Skaggs, LHP, Santa Monica HS (CA); (42) Garrett Richards, RHP, Oklahoma; (48) Tyler Kehrer, LHP, Eastern Illinois
2: (80) Pat Corbin, LHP, Chipola JC
3: (110) Josh Spence, LHP, Arizona State

Quick Take: Grichuck moved up on a lot of draft boards during the final week before, showing plus-plus raw power with wood bats. He's not the standard toolsy guy who you might normally get taking a first-round high school outfielder, but he can really put a charge into the ball. Trout, on the other hand, is that classic high school tools bet, but his game comes without the expected rawness. Skaggs entered the year as a potential first-rounder, but his spring was filled with inconsistency. He's still considered signable, and when you seen him on the right day, you'd wonder why he didn't go higher. Richards was selected on the basis of his impressive velocity alone; he has a lot of trouble throwing strikes and keeping the ball down. Kehrer is a strong lefty that sits at 91-95 mph, but most teams see him as a reliever in the end. Corbin is more the projectable type of left-hander who will need some refinement with his mechanics, while Spence is a pure pitchability type with a lot of polish, as evidenced when he battled Alex White to a draw in Arizona State's College World Series opener.

Notable Later Picks: The Angels rarely shy away from undersized power arms, to the point where they may see them representing an undervalued niche, and they think they have a steal in sixth-round pick Danny Reynolds, who got up to 97 mph this year. Catcher Carlos Ramirez has very good power, and at least profiles as a solid backup. While they have almost no chance of signing him due to his NFL dreams, 10th-round pick Jack Locker was one of the best high school players in the country three years ago before deciding to focus on the gridiron in college.

Final Summary: With five picks in the first 48, the Angels were able to restock their system with the kind of high-ceiling youth that they desperately needed, though they stayed away from the late signability types they have done well with in years past.

Minnesota Twins

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (22) Kyle Gibson, RHP, Missouri; (46) Matt Bashore, LHP, Indiana
2: (70) Billy Bullock, RHP, Florida
3: (101) Ben Tootle, RHP, Jacksonville State

Quick Take: Gibson was a sure-fire single-digit selection before being diagnosed with a stress fracture in his forearm. If he can get healthy and stay that way, he's a steal here, but the pick does not come without considerable risk. Bashore is a classic Twins pick as a left-hander with good stuff and above-average command, while Bullock and Tootle are both strong-armed relief types with late-inning potential.

Notable Later Picks: Infielder Derek McCallum (4th) is a hometown selection from the University of Minnesota, but he's a grinder with some impressive pop in his bat. Chris Herrmann (6th) didn't catch at Miami this year because of the presence of elite-level 2010 pick Yasmini Grandal, but the Twins will still try him back there, hoping that he can become an offense-oriented backstop. Righty Brad Stillings (7th) is a true power arm, but comes with a lot of command and control issues.

Final Summary: It's not a splashy group by any stretch, but the selection of Gibson is the kind of risk that the Twins rarely take. It's probable that his development will ultimately define the success of this draft.

New York Yankees

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (29) Slade Heathcott, OF, Texas HS (TX)
2: (76) J.R. Murphy, C, Pendleton School (FL)
3: No pick

Quick Take: The Yankees zeroed in on Heathcott very early, and they were leaning towards still taking him even if some of the expensive arms fell to them at the bottom of the first round. He combines speed and power with an infectious maximum-effort style of play, and many of the concerns about his makeup were overstated. Murphy is a compact catcher with impressive power and pure hitting skills, but reviews of his defense are mixed.

Notable Later Picks: Clemson's Graham Stoneburner will be a tough sign as a sophomore-eligible 14th-round selection, but he has a rare combination of above-average velocity and command. Southpaw Gavin Brooks (9th) has an excellent fastball for a left-hander, though his future is as a reliever only. Sixth-rounder Robery Lyerly is a pure hitter, but questions about his power as a third baseman kept him from going higher.

Final Summary: It wasn't a traditional Yankee draft filled with big-money selections in the later rounds, with the organization seemingly focused more on depth this year, especially on the mound; after their first two picks, 11 of their next 14 selections were pitchers.

Oakland Athletics

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (13) Grant Green, SS, Southern California
2: No pick
3: (92) Justin Marks, LHP, Louisville

Quick Take: Green went from overrated to underrated in the span of three months. He was the best middle infielder in the draft, and Oakland was lucky to get him this late. Marks went around where he was expected to; he's not a sexy pick with a ton of upside, but he throws strikes, has a full arsenal, and could move quickly into a back-of-the-rotation role.

Notable Later Picks: Max Stassi (4th) is a first-round talent who may even have gotten some minor consideration from the A's at 13th overall. He'll certainly require first-round money to sign, but Oakland wouldn't have used a fourth-round pick on him without some confidence that a deal could be done. Righty Sam Dyson (10th) is much more of a flyer as a guy with (late) first-round talent and one of the better fastballs among college arms, but he also has the leverage of a sophomore-eligible player to go with a seven-figure price tag. Outfielder Myrio Richard (9th) is bigger, stronger, and faster than older brother Michael, an infielder in the Oakland system, but he's very rough around the edges.

Final Summary: While the A's stayed in their comfort zone with many of their picks, the selection of a Boras client in the first round, as well as a some signability talents in the later rounds, show that if anything the A's are flexible about mixing certainty with upside.

Seattle Mariners

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (2) Dustin Ackley, OF, North Carolina; (27) Nick Franklin, SS, Lake Brantley HS (FL); (33) Steve Baron, C, Ferguson HS (FL)
2: (51) Rich Poythress, 1B, Georgia
3: (82) Kyle Seager, 2B, North Carolina

Quick Take: Having the second overall pick almost seemed like a curse for most of the spring until Ackley clearly separated himself from the pack. He's almost certainly going to be a dynamic offensive force, but it may come at the cost of being in left field, and he'd have significantly less value if he can't stick in center. Ackley is also going to cost an awful lot of money, so the Mariners went conservative with the 27th overall pick; Franklin has the tools to stick at shortstop, but his bat profiles as a bottom-of-the-order type. Baron should get to the big leagues on the strength of his defense alone, but his bat comes with many questions. Despite massive numbers this year, Poythress fell out of first-round consideration due to a debate over his ability to re-create his performances with wood. With so many eyeballs consistently on Ackley, the Mariners also had plenty of chances to evaluate Seager, who doesn't blow anyone away with his tools, but he has an excellent feel for contact.

Notable Later Picks: Right-hander Tyler Blandford (5th) is a guy with impressive arm strength, but he'll require patience and a move to the bullpen. Another guy who got a lot of attention because scouts were looking at someone else, Missouri catcher Trevor Coleman (9th) is a switch-hitter with solid defensive skills. Vinnie Catricala is a raw third baseman with a ton of strength who was taken in the 10th round.

Final Summary: Ackley is obviously the big star here, and he could be in the middle of the Mariners lineup by 2011. After that, the Mariners' draft was frankly a bit bland, as Franklin and Baron are more skillsy than toolsy high school talents, and after those two the Mariners went college-only with their selections until the 13th round.

Tampa Bay Rays

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (30) LeVon Washington, 2B, Buchholz HS (FL)
2: (78) Ken Diekroger, SS, Menlo HS (CA)
3: (108) Todd Glaesmann, OF, Midway HS (TX)

Quick Take: Washington is a 70-plus runner who will likely move from second base back to center field once his shoulder is fully recovered from pre-season surgery. He's got excellent bat speed and a smooth swing, with one scout calling him a smaller version of Carl Crawford. Diekroger is bigger and arguably more athletic than Washington, but is also quite raw, and as a sloppy infielder he will probably also move to center. Glaesmann is, yup, another big-time athlete with more size and strength than those picked before him, but only average to plus speed.

Notable Later Picks: Luke Bailey (4th) was the top high school catcher in the nation before undergoing Tommy John surgery. He'll need a big bonus, but could be a great find in the fourth round. Jeff Malm (5th), has as much raw power as any prep hitter around, but he's a sluggish, unathletic first baseman who has to mash in order to make it. Derek Dennis will be a difficult sign as a 10th-round pick, but he's a good defender with a projectable frame.

Final Summary: Teams wondered what the Rays would do now that they're not picking at the top of the draft, but nothing really changed as the organization continued to focus on high-upside talent, including some signability selections in the middle round. They didn't have the usual opportunity to find an elite talent, but it was still an impressive haul.

Texas Rangers

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (14) Matt Purke, LHP, Klein HS (TX); (44) Tanner Scheppers, RHP, St. Paul Saints
2: (62) Tommy Mendonca, 3B, Fresno State
3: (93) Robbie Erlin, LHP, Scotts Valley HS (CA)

Quick Take: Purke was one of the top two left-handers in the draft, but his $7 million dollar price tag scared many teams off. He won't get seven large from the Rangers, but will certainly get a deal that is somewhere in the range of two to three times the recommended slot for the 14th overall selection. Scheppers' drop was one of the bigger stories among the picks made this year; he had the second-best fastball in the draft, but concerns over his medical history ended up really hurting him. Mendonca was a surprise in the second round as a third baseman with huge power and equally huge holes in his swing. Robbie Erlin generates surprising velocity out of a small frame and has one scout comparing him to Texas 2006 first-round pick Kasey Kiker, but with a better curveball.

Notable Later Picks: Andrew Doyle (4th) is a college right-hander who hits his spots and generates a lot of ground balls; he doesn't match with the Rangers' proclivity for power arms, but he's the kind of guy who could move quickly. Outfielder Ruben Sierra (6th) is the son of the former MVP and nearly a match for his father physically, but he's also an unrefined talent who will required a lot of patience and may not be ready for a full-season league until 2011. Jabari Blash (9th) is another big athlete with an enormous amount of promise and a million holes in his game.

Final Summary: Tom Hicks' financial troubles seem to have been overstated, as Purke and Scheppers will both be expensive. Still, if both sign, the Rangers will have pulled a coup by grabbing a pair of players who had both received top five consideration with the 14th and 44th overall selections.

Toronto Blue Jays

Picks in First Three Rounds
1: (20) Chad Jenkins, RHP, Kennesaw State; (37) James Paxton, LHP, Kentucky
2: (68) Jake Eliopoulos, LHP, Sacred Heart HS (ON)
3: (99) Jake Barrett, RHP, Desert Ridge HS (AZ); (104) Jake Marisnick, OF, Poly HS (CA)

Quick Take: Jenkins is a massive ground-ball machine who one scout has referred to as, "What Matt Hobgood will be in three years." That's a little strong, but Jenkins should at least move quickly. Paxton baffles scouts due to his combination of first-round size, stuff, and a five-plus ERA; he's also a late addition to the Boras stable. While he was the best player in Canada, Eliopoulos was still a reach in the second round. Barrett has a build and stuff like Jenkins, but he's three years younger. The Blue Jays have looked to add athletes after the first round in recent drafts, and Marisnick is this year's version, as he features speed and projectable power in center field.

Notable Later Picks: The son of former big-league player and manager Butch, outfielder Kris Hobson (6th) is bigger than his dad, and like him, he has significant raw power. Ryan Goins (4th) is more of an old-school Jays pick as an infielder who isn't especially fast or strong, but makes up for it with patience and gap power. Righty Brian Slover (8th) was a little overshadowed by bigger college talents, but he was one of the more impressive college closers around, getting up to 96 mph this spring at Cal State Northridge.

Final Summary: The Blue Jays focused on pitching this year, and didn't shy away from Boras clients or upside at any point in the draft. While their first-round pick might be seen as a reach by some, they made up for it in the later rounds.

Kevin Goldstein is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Kevin by clicking here or click here to see Kevin's other articles.

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9134

Much love.

[Stax]

My bad, missed that one:

Prospectus Today
The Imbalance of Power

by Joe Sheehan

A couple of months back, I’d written about how the NL Central was playing the best baseball of any of the game’s divisions. As we come to the merciful end of interleague play this weekend, the NL Central has collectively slipped under .500, while the cream of the game has risen to the top. Rapidly. Here are the divisions’ interdivisional records through Thursday:


W L Win%
AL East 134 108 .554
NL West 103 95 .520
AL West 102 96 .515
NL Central 111 113 .496
AL Central 108 123 .468
NL East 96 119 .447

It looks more and more like the superiority of the AL, which we’ve come to take as a given, is actually a superiority of the AL East. Remember, the two leagues aren’t distinct entities any longer, but conferences within one league. They operate under the same rules, they acquire talent in the same draft and have the same setups in the minor leagues. There’s no structural reason why one league should be better. For a generation after World War II, the National League ran out ahead of the American League because it integrated more quickly, tapping into the reserves of African-American talent made available in the wake of Jackie Robinson’s debut. There’s been no change like that in MLB; I might argue that the AL has had more success in bringing over Japanese players—other than Hideo Nomo, the top NPB successes over here have played for AL squads—but that’s nothing like the NL’s better integration practices in the 1950s.

However, the competitive pressures of the divisions, and in particular the competitive pressures of two highly-successful, high-revenue, high-payroll monsters, sets a bar in the AL East that has to be met. That’s why the Rays, who might have wandered into contention in the early 2000s in a different locale, had to be sold and implement an entirely new and different-thinking management team to be successful. It’s why the Orioles, with no hope of contending through marginal improvements, brought in Andy MacPhail and gave him both the authority and the resources to change a decade of failed policies. The Blue Jays have put together so much pitching depth that they’ve been able to survive the complete loss of a rotation. That is a credit to a GM, J.P. Ricciardi, who I’ve frequently criticized. The Jays may, over a three-year period, be one of the top five teams in baseball, and nevertheless end up with absolutely nothing to show for it.

The AL is once again slamming the NL in interleague play, with a 113-96 mark (.541) with 43 games left to play. Barring at least a 29-13 weekend by the NL (there’s a dangling Cubs/White Sox game to be played), the AL is going to win interleague play for the sixth straight season, and there’s a good chance that for the fifth in a row, it won’t be close. In this case, each division is carrying its own weight: every AL group is above .500 in interleague play, as are nine of the 14 teams in total. Over in the NL, the West is .500, the other two divisions below. Just five teams are above .500 against the AL.

The Adjusted Standings, which take into account not just wins and losses, but the underlying quality of play and the overall strength of schedule, are perhaps the best indicator of the quality gap. By third-order record, four of the top seven teams in baseball are AL East teams, with the Rays—fourth in their own division—arguably the best team in baseball, same as a year ago. Bullpen problems and some bad luck have done a good job of hiding how well they’re building on last year’s foundation. The Toronto Blue Jays are the seventh-best team in baseball. The bottom five teams in the National League, the Giants, Reds, Nationals, Astros and Padres, are all worse than the A’s, bringing up the rear in the AL. It actually could have been worse for the NL; the Dodgers are clearly their best team, and had they not signed Manny Ramirez and Orlando Hudson as winter turned to spring—had, say, the Angels picked up one or both players, or the Angels Ramirez while the Twins ink Hudson—the AL could conceivably have the four best teams and maybe seven of the top eight.

Fundamentally, the AL is a .520 league, the NL a .480 league. The AL is six games better over a full season (84-78 vs. 78-84). However, that difference is entirely about the AL East. The average American League East team is a 91-71 team. No other MLB division is even at .500, although the AL Central pretty much rounds to 81-81:

AL East .564
AL Central .498
AL West .494
NL East .488
NL West .485
NL Central .474

That’s complete and utter dominance of the sport, akin to what a great college basketball or football conference might be in any given year. Or perhaps to what the best division in the NBA’s Western Conference might have done at that group’s peak. It’s an imbalance the likes of which we’ve rarely seen, and which we’re certainly not accounting for in evaluating both the AL East teams and the teams around the league. The four best teams in the AL are all in the East, and two will have to stay home so that two of the Tigers, Twins, Rangers, and Angels can populate October. I wouldn’t necessarily call that unfair, which is a loaded word, but I do think it’s a shame that we’ve gotten to a point where the best teams in baseball are so unevenly distributed as to leave so many good ones home. Some fundamentally 90-win team like the Jays is going to miss the playoffs so that we can watch at least one, maybe more, fundamentally .500 teams play on. The Orioles, no one’s idea of a contender, would be in the mix for the National League Wild Card.

So watch the Yankees and Mets this weekend, and the Jays and Phillies, and the Rays and Marlins, and think less about the gap between their actual records and more about the gap between what they really are. The AL East is simply playing a different game than everyone else is.

Joe Sheehan is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact Joe by clicking here or click here to see Joe's other articles.

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9194

Thanks thanks thanks.

[Stax]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9194

Thanks thanks thanks.

Future Shock
Top 100 Great Leaps Forward

by Kevin Goldstein

As the baseball season has reached the halfway mark, it's a good time to look back at some rankings. However, I'm not going to provide a full re-ranking, the reasons of which I went into detail during a recent interview with the good folks at Phuture Phillies:

PP: As a quick parting question, your current Top 5 Phillies prospects list would be… ?

KG: I don’t know. I realize that comes off as a crappy answer, so let me explain myself. I’m never comfortable with off-the-cuff rankings because they kind of lessen the value of the real ones I do. When I do the Phillies Top 11 in the offseason, it’s going to involve pages and pages of notes, statistical analysis, as well as somewhere between five and ten phone calls to scouts. It’s important to me to put that much work into them because I really want to get them right, so to just throw five names out right now would be incomplete and sloppy, not to mention six months from now I’d get, “you have this dude here, but now you’ve moved him there, what changed?” when nothing actually changed with the player as much as I did the work to try to rank him properly

Instead, let's identify the players who have taken the biggest steps forward and those who have seen the largest declines. To start off with today, here are ten from the pre-season Top 100 that have seen the biggest jumps up in their prospect status; we'll look at the bad side of things later this week. Note, these are players who began the year as Top 100 Prospects. I'll cover those who have moved their way into Top 100 consideration later in the week.

Brett Anderson, LHP, Athletics (Pre-season ranking: 24)
While his 4.86 ERA, .277 opponent's average, and 13 home runs in 831/3 innings might fail to impress, Anderson is the real deal, as anyone who saw the 21-year-old on Monday night now knows. If anything, he's learning on the job, and the two-hitter in Boston was a culmination of many steps forward for the southpaw. If anything, he has seen his upside increased considerably with his performance thus far. Often miscast as a command/control lefty, Anderson has that kind of ability to throw strikes, but he's been touching 97 mph with his fastball of late while sitting at 92-94. That's not a finesse pitcher, that's plus stuff and plus command, a formula that usually equates to stardom.

Daniel Bard, RHP, Red Sox (Pre-season ranking: 97)
Bard was one of those players who ranked low because it was impossible to fully trust his 2008 performance after the Blass-esque nightmare that was 2007. He clearly seems to be over that now, allowing earned runs in just three of 18 big-league performances and being absolutely dominant of late, as he's struck out seven over four perfect innings in his last three appearances. He seems to be slowly gaining more and more of Terry Francona's trust, and could be setting up Jonathan Papelbon by the end of the season.

Gordon Beckham, INF, White Sox (Pre-season ranking: 28)
This is a matter of the quickness of his arrival more than anything else. While most 2008 college draftees are in Double-A at best, Beckham started the year there after a monster spring training, went 13-for-28 in seven Triple-A games, and was in the big leagues by early June. He's done an admirable job defensively while learning to play third base as he goes, and after beginning his major league career by batting .172 in his first 18 games, he's batting .405/.436/.622 since and looks like a not-so-distant future All-Star.

Kyle Drabek, RHP, Phillies (Pre-season ranking: 92)
It's strange what kind of information can help you, as one of the reasons I ranked Drabek as the third-best prospect in the system entering the year despite his missing most of 2008 while recovering from Tommy John surgery was a conversation I had with his father Doug Drabek at the Winter Meetings in Las Vegas. It was an honest talk about Kyle's old and new mechanics, and what was working and what still needed to be worked on. By the time spring training arrived, Kyle had already tweaked his breaking ball back to plus status with the new delivery, as well as rediscovering his mid-90s velocity, which has led to a breakout year. Many scouts see stardom in his future, but expect less from him in the second half, at least on a workload level, since while his 109 strikeouts currently ranks third in the minors, his 1081/3 innings leads all minor leaguers and will need to be monitored.

Desmond Jennings, OF, Rays (Pre-season ranking: 49)
Jennings needed his 2008 season to prove that 2007's breakout was for real, but instead he had a lost season that was undermined by injuries. It was somewhat surprising to see him begin the year at Double-A Montgomery, but he was clearly up to the challenge, as his impressive .308/.384/.467 line is brought down by a recent slump. His tools are off the charts, as he boasts both plus-plus speed and average power, with one scout calling him, "Carl Crawford with a good approach."

Mat Latos, RHP, Padres (Pre-season ranking: 38)
The Padres' top prospect entering the year, Latos missed the first month of the season with an ankle injury, but after shaking the rust off by allowing one run in 251/3 innings in A-ball, the 21-year-old was moved up two levels past High-A to Double-A San Antonio, where he continues to dominate. He has put up a 2.14 ERA in eight starts while limiting batters to a .211 average without a home run in 152 at-bats. He's one of the better power pitchers in the game right now, but his service-time clock most likely won't be started until next year.

Jesus Montero, C, Yankees (Pre-season ranking: 38)
After a big full-season debut last year, Montero has gone from one of the better hitting prospects around to simply one of the best period, as after going off in the Florida State League with a .356/.406/.583 line, the 19-year-old hasn't missed a beat as one of the youngest players in Double-A, batting .312/.379/.527 for Trenton, including a recent four-game stretch in which he hit five home runs. "He has improved his plate discipline, he's making more contact, and he's still going to get better," said Mark Newman, Senior Vice President of Baseball Operations for the Yankees. "His balance is going to get better, he's going to have a better plan at the plate... offensively, he's as good as anyone we've had here." Montero's defense behind the plate has often been the bigger story, but he continues to make strides there, with a handful of scouts believing he could at least start his big-league career behind the plate. "He's got a ways to go still," admitted Newman. "But his arm accuracy and delivery times are much better. We knew that was an issue when we first signed him, but my confidence in his ability to stay at catcher grows all the time."

Justin Smoak, 1B, Rangers (Pre-season ranking: 22)
While a strained oblique cost last year's first-round pick around a month of at-bats, Smoak was a middle-of-the-order force for Double-A Frisco, batting .328/.449/.481 in 50 games for the RoughRiders, far more production than some of the big bats taken ahead of him last June (notably Pedro Alvarez, Yonder Alonso, and Eric Hosmer). He was promoted to Triple-A last week just as incumbent first baseman Chris Davis was sent down to join him. Smoak could be a huge addition to the Rangers' playoff run, and is looking more and more like one of the steals of the 2008 draft.

Michael Taylor, OF, Phillies (Pre-season ranking: 55)
Like Bard, Taylor's ranking was brought down a bit by "is it real?" syndrome, as his 2008 campaign was seemingly out of nowhere. Now, with a .339/.402/.582 line at Double-A Reading, he's seen as a proven commodity with star potential, as his numbers have now consistently matched his tools for over a year. He's a bit of a strange player, as a 6-foot-6, 250-pound monster athlete who nonetheless focuses more on contact at the plate than power, Taylor's natural strength sends balls out of the yard. His surprisingly low strikeout rate keeps his average high, and he's a good runner to boot, with 14 stolen bases and good range in an outfield corner.

Josh Vitters, 3B, Cubs (Pre-season ranking: 34)
One of the most impressive bats in the minors this year, Vitters hit .316/.351/.535 at Single-A Peoria before moving up to the Florida State League last week, including an incredible streak in which he hit 11 home runs over just 15 games. Reviews of his defense have been mixed, but most believe he's the kind of player who could at least begin a big-league career at third base before moving over to first, like Jim Thome or Albert Pujols. As for his bat, everyone is a believer, including Cubs Vice President of Player Personnel Oneri Fleita, who admits that players like Vitters are at times best left alone. "You just let guys like that play," observed Fleita. "I learned a long time ago that guys who can hit .300 with power, you can teach them to hit .200 with no power, so when they have that much talent, you let them write their own script."

[TheImpossibleMan]

http://baseballprospectus.com/article.php?articleid=9246

Thanks.

[Stax]

On the Beat
Buyers Rush Nearly Empty Shelves?

by John Perrotto

The grumbling among most general managers is that it is too hard to make a trade in the current climate. Just 15 days remain until the July 31 deadline for making trades without securing waivers on players. However, 18 of the 30 major league clubs are still within five games of a playoff spot as the teams begin returning to action from the All-Star break tonight. Just nine teams can be considered definite sellers with the deadline approaching, leaving 21 clubs either looking to buy or at least stand pat. Thus, it is truly a sellers’ market.

"If you want to trade for a difference-maker, you’re going to pay through the nose right now," said the general manager of contender team who attended the All-Star festivities in St. Louis earlier this week. "There are too many teams trying to trade for too few players. The bad teams are trying to get better in a hurry by making some lopsided deals."

Here are the sellers and what they have to offer:

Athletics: Left fielder Matt Holliday is very much available but the asking price is two premium prospects and a third youngster. Shortstop Orlando Cabrera could interest a contender, but won’t fetch a major return. Right-handed reliever Russ Springer might also have a market, but the Athletics will have a hard time giving first baseman Jason Giambi and shortstop Bobby Crosby away.

Blue Jays: The auction for right-hander Roy Halladay is in progress, and he is clearly the most attractive player available for trade. Once the Blue Jays move Halladay, they will look to trade outfielders Alex Rios and Vernon Wells as well but it will be difficult as both carry unwieldy contracts. The Blue Jays are also willing to part with left-hander David Purcey.

Diamondbacks: They have plenty to offer with left-hander Doug Davis topping the list, but right-hander Jon Garland, second baseman Felipe Lopez, and corner infielder Chad Tracy are also available. Closer Chad Qualls can be had if a team is willing to meet a high price.

Indians: They have become more willing to listen to offers for left-hander Cliff Lee and catcher/first baseman Victor Martinez, even though they both come with reasonably priced club options for next season. Trading one or both would allow the Indians to expedite the restocking of their roster and farm system. Closer Kerry Wood is also available, and so are right-handed starter Carl Pavano and utility infielder Jamey Carroll.

Nationals: This could be a one-stop shopping spot for a contender needing bats, as first baseman Nick Johnson, second baseman Ronnie Belliard, shortstop Cristian Guzman, and outfielders Austin Kearns and John Wilingham are available. Left fielder Adam Dunn could also be dealt, but the asking price is high.

Orioles: Their most attractive players are right-handed reliever Danys Baez and first baseman Aubrey Huff (who can also play third base and left field). Third baseman Melvin Mora is very available but it a pending free agent, and would want at least one guaranteed year added to his contract in order to waive his no-trade clause. Closer George Sherrill can be had, but the Orioles will want full value as he is not eligible for free agency until after the 2011 season.

Padres: They would love to dump right fielder Brian Giles, who is earning $9 million this season and has a no-trade clause; third baseman Kevin Kouzmanoff is also very available. If right-handers Jake Peavy and Chris Young get healthy, they could go by the August 31 deadline for setting post-season rosters.

Pirates: First baseman Adam LaRoche, second baseman Freddy Sanchez, and shortstop Jack Wilson are very available. The Pirates will also listen on left-handers Zach Duke and Paul Maholm, closer Matt Capps, and left-handed reliever John Grabow. They could be the most active sellers in the next few weeks, as GM Neal Huntington wants to reshape an organization on its way to a 17th consecutive losing season at the major league level.

Royals: The list of players they won’t trade consists of right-handers Zack Greinke and Gil Meche, closer Joakim Soria, first baseman Billy Butler, and third baseman Alex Gordon. Thus, everyone else is fair game, and they would particularly like to deal right fielder Jose Guillen.

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Nationals manager Manny Acta never really had a chance to succeed during his 2½ seasons with Washington, a tour of duty that ended late Sunday night, a month after reports of his demise first surfaced. Acta had the misfortune of working for a dysfunctional organization that saw general manager Jim Bowden resign under pressure on March 1 amidst reports of a potential bonus-skimming scandal involving Nationals officials in the Dominican Republic. President Stan Kasten is said to be privately chafing because he has not been given the autonomy by the team's owners, the Lerner family, to remake the organization the way he sees fit.

Nationals third baseman Ryan Zimmerman said he and his teammates knew what Acta was up against, and sympathized with him. However, Zimmerman also said he wished Acta would have run a tighter ship this season, as the Nationals have the worst record in the major leagues at 26-61. "There needs to be a little more sense of urgency and kind of wanting to win," Zimmerman said. "Some people here are so used to losing they don’t have that fire to win. That’s the next step we need to take, regardless of who the next manager might be."

Bench coach Jim Riggleman will be the interim manager, likely through the end of the season. It is a familiar situation for Riggleman, who finished out last season in the same role with the Mariners after John McLaren was fired.

Acting GM Mike Rizzo said he did not feel Acta had lost the clubhouse but did feel he had been given ample time to make the Nationals respectable. "We kept, for a while now, thinking this was going to turn around, that we were going to start playing better," Rizzo said. "We always continued to underachieve, in my opinion. We thought this was a prudent time to make a move."

The Braves were the most stable organization in the major leagues when Kasten ran them during their string of 11 consecutive division titles from 1995-2005. That the Nationals are in a state of flux bothers him. "I’m very uncomfortable with that," Kasten said. "I’ve strived my whole career (for) value, stability and consistency and I want to get to that here. We're not there yet. I think we're working toward that."

Acta, 40, had a 158-282 record in his first major league manager’s job after building the reputation as an outstanding baseball mind during stints as a coach with the Expos and Mets. "I want to thank the Washington Nationals for giving me the opportunity to be a major league manager," Acta wrote in a statement. "It was a great learning experience. I have no regrets."

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Commissioner Bud Selig, during his annual question-and-answer session with the Baseball Writers’ Association of America at the All-Star Game, said that he is quite discouraged that Dodgers left fielder Manny Ramirez has received such a positive reaction since returning July 3 from his 50-game suspension for violating Major League Baseball’s drug policy. Ramirez tested positive for using steroids. "I think it surprises a lot of people, but you always get back to the fans," Selig said. "They want their team to win and this player has been disciplined. He’s back. They’re in first place. He can help them win, and I think that’s what you’re seeing."

Ramirez appeared in five minor league games as he prepared to return from the suspension, and they all sold out. Selig said he will look to eliminate suspended players from being able to play in minor league games before being reinstated. "I believe that (rule) should be changed," Selig said. "Their logic was OK because guys get hurt, they can go out on rehab, and so on and so forth but I think that's something we need to really change in the next labor negotiation. It should be 50 games and then go do what you’ve got to do."

The current labor agreement does not expire until December 2011. On the subject of suspended players, Selig said he is still examining career hits leader Pete Rose’s application for reinstatement. Rose accepted a lifetime ban from then-commissioner Bart Giamatti in 1989 after an investigation concluded he bet on his team while serving as the Reds’ manager. Rose applied for reinstatement in 1997 and met with Selig in 2002. He admitted in his 2004 autobiography that he lied when he denied that he gambled on baseball during the investigation but that only seemed to hurt his chances of gaining favor with Selig.

Selig would not get into specifics about Rose’s case. "It’s under review," Selig said. "He did, as you now, accept voluntarily a lifetime suspension from Bart Giamatti, and there really isn’t much more I can say about that. I did agree to review it. It is under review. We do spend some time discussing it but it’s not appropriate for me to say any more since I am the judge in the case."

The BBWAA rejected a proposal by the Chicago Sun-Times’ Rick Telander that a committee be formed, in conjunction with officials from the National Baseball Hall of Fame and Museum, in developing guidelines to help Hall voters evaluate players who have either been found to use steroids or been implicated as a user.

Selig said he had no advice to give the writers of how on how to what to do when considering those players’ candidacies. "That I’m going to leave to all of you," Selig said. "You all have to make your own decisions. I would, however, not disregard history. That’s a very fair question, and I understand it’s bothering a lot of people but you’ll have to make your own judgment."

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Rays manager Joe Maddon is a progressive thinker and has an idea he believes would make voting for the All-Star Game more interesting. He would like to see either the fans or players select a utility player for each league, a position he calls "super utility."

Perhaps none too coincidentally, the Rays’ Ben Zobrist fits that category, and after Maddon's selection of him, he played in his first All-Star Game this year. He has played second base, third base, shortstop, and all three outfield positions this season, though he has been playing primarily at second since Aki Iwamura underwent knee surgery last month that is likely to sideline him until September.

"I believe the SU player is a very important player in today’s game," Maddon said. "When you are going to carry 12 pitchers on the roster, it is going to leave you a player short on the bench. So, I think as we move this thing further along, as this position becomes more prominent, which I think it will, at some point you are going to see an SU position on the ballot."

The Pirates’ Freddy Sanchez has played strictly at second base this season but National League manager Charlie Manuel of the Phillies selected him as a reserve partially because he is only player in history to play second base, third base, and shortstop in an All-Star Game. "If there was ever a game where you could use a utility guy, it’s the All-Star Game," Zobrist said. "You’re making wholesale changes as the game goes on and having someone who plays multiple position really gives the manager a lot of flexibility in making those lineup switches."

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Scouts’ views on various major league players:

* Athletics left-hander Brett Anderson: "He’s a kid who is still growing into his body and understanding what he can do. He hits 97 mph with his fastball and it’s legit. He’s got a great arm."
* Padres outfielder Kyle Blanks: "He is one large individual and I don’t know if a guy his size can hack it in the outfield. But the Padres are going nowhere and he has some pop, so I applaud them for taking a look to see what they have in him."
* Cubs right fielder Milton Bradley: "He is the king of bad body language but I’ve never seen it this bad. He looks like he’s ready for one of his infamous meltdowns."
* Pirates outfielder Garrett Jones: "I don’t know how long his hot streak will last, but I’ve always felt he was more than just a 4-A player during all those years he was stuck behind Justin Morneau with the Twins. I’m not saying he is going to be a star, but I think he’s a useful major-league player in some capacity."
* Cardinals right fielder Ryan Ludwick: "He has finally gotten out of his funk of chasing every pitch thrown his way. He’s be patient, getting his pitch and hitting it with authority like last year."
* Orioles outfielder Felix Pie: "What a disappointment. He has all the tools you would want in an outfielder and no idea what to do with them."
* White Sox left-hander Aaron Poreda: "This kid has just been overpowering at times out of the bullpen and I’ve got to believe he moves into the rotation if they decide to make any changes."
* Braves second baseman Martin Prado: "He won’t knock your socks off but he puts the bat on the ball consistently and he can shoot balls into the gap. The more you watch him, the more you like him."
* Diamondbacks reliever Jon Rauch: "This guy frustrates me. He has the size and stuff to be overpowering, but he’s very hittable and can’t figure out how to throw strikes."
* Astros left-hander Wandy Rodriguez: "For me, he’s been one of the biggest surprises in baseball this season. I didn’t think he had it in him to pitch the way he has. I always looked at him as a No. 4-type guy in a rotation."
* Phillies shortstop Jimmy Rollins: "He is finally swinging the bat well because he has gotten away from trying to jerk balls 500 feet. He’s got pop for a little guy, but he’s at his best when he concentrates on making solid contact."
* Blue Jays left-hander Marc Rzepczynski: "He has a really good sinker but what’s helped him so far is nobody knows anything about him in the major leagues. Once he gets around the league, he is going to have to establish a second pitch he can throw for strikes, or hitters are going to take the sinker and let it drop out of the strike zone for a ball."
* Giants left-hander Jonathan Sanchez: "I’ve never doubted his stuff, just his confidence. If throwing a no-hitter doesn’t make you think you can succeed in the major leagues, then I don’t know what will."
* Indians catcher Kelly Shoppach: "Pitchers have figured how to get him out, throw pitches just off the plate and make him chase them."
* Rockies third baseman Ian Stewart: "He has started hitting for power this year and the average will start going up soon. I know people got down on this kid at one point, but I think he will wind up being an above-average third baseman in the big leagues."
* Tigers outfielder Clete Thomas: "I’m glad Jim Leyland is playing this kid because he’s got some pop and he’ll take a walk. He will help them more than Magglio Ordonez at this point."
* Rays center fielder B.J. Upton: "He’s coming on strong after having shoulder surgery in the offseason and he’s ready to explode in the second half. Mark it down. He’s going to have a huge finish."
* Reds first baseman Joey Votto: "He gets better every time I see him. I think he is going to contend for a batting title one of these year, and he hasn’t maxed out his power potential, either."
* Nationals outfielder Josh Willingham: "If I’m a contender and needed a power bat, I’d go get him. He’s a good hitter with pop, and he could make a difference in a pennant race."
* Mets third baseman David Wright: "Citi Field has really killed his power output. I don’t know if he is ever going to be a 30-home-run guy again in that ballpark, but he is still a great hitter and runs a lot better than people think."

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Three series to watch this weekend, with probable pitching matchups (all times Eastern):

Phillies at Marlins, Thursday-Sunday (July 16-19)
Jamie Moyer vs. Chris Volstad, 7:10 p.m.; Cole Hamels vs. Ricky Nolasco, 7:10 p.m.; Joe Blanton vs. Josh Johnson, 7:10p.m.; J.A. Happ vs. Andrew Miller, 1:10 p.m.

Tigers at Yankees, Friday-Sunday (July 17-19)
Lucas French vs. A.J. Burnett, 7:05 p.m.; Edwin Jackson vs. Joba Chamberlain, 1:05 p.m.; Justin Verlander vs. CC Sabathia, 2:05 p.m., TBS

Twins at Rangers, Friday-Sunday (July 17-19)
Glen Perkins vs. Vicente Padilla, 8:05 p.m.; Scott Baker vs. Scott Feldman, 8:05 p.m., MLB Network; Francisco Liriano vs. Tommy Hunter, 8:05 p.m.

John Perrotto is an author of Baseball Prospectus. You can contact John by clicking here or click here to see John's other articles.